Rogue superpower

By Artchil B. Fernandez

The United States (US) has become a rogue superpower. This is the immediate outcome of the US invasion of Venezuela, abducting its president and first lady. In the aftermath of American action in Venezuela, the US also doubled down on its threat to Colombia, Cuba, Mexico, and Greenland, a Danish territory.

Greenland is now the current flashpoint as the Trump administration intensified its effort to grab the Danish territory by any means. “One way or the other, we’re gonna have Greenland,” Trump boasted last week. “We are going to do something in Greenland, whether they like it or not,” Trump decreed.

Stephen Miller, Trump’s fascist sycophant, echoed his capo dei capi’s hubris. “Nobody’s going to fight the United States militarily over the future of Greenland,” Miller bragged on CNN. “The United States should have Greenland as part of the United States,” Miller asserted. “The real question is, by what right does Denmark assert control over Greenland? What is the basis of their territorial claim?” he said, disparaging Denmark.

Forced annexation of Greenland by the US would mark the end of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), the most successful and powerful military alliance in history. Both the US and Denmark are NATO members. A US attack on Denmark over Greenland would break up NATO, pitting the US against the European Union (EU). This scenario was unthinkable a year ago. That Europe would go to war with America over Greenland was a preposterous idea until Trump and his minions took over US leadership. Should this happen, the rules-based international order would be over with finality.

The US going rogue has catastrophic consequences for low middle-power states like the Philippines. The country has largely relied on the rules-based international order to advance and defend its national interest in the absence of a powerful military. Without strong military muscle, the Philippines turned to the power of moral persuasion and legal ascendancy to defend its territorial integrity and sovereignty.

The standoff at Scarborough Shoal between the Philippine Navy and Chinese maritime surveillance ships on April 8, 2012, prompted the country to bring its case before the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) in The Hague. The Philippines accused China of violating the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). Both China and the Philippines signed and ratified UNCLOS.

The Philippines won its case against China at the PCA. The tribunal invalidated China’s nine-dash line and upheld the right of the Philippines to its exclusive economic zone (EEZ). Since then, the ruling has been the most powerful moral and legal weapon of the Philippines in questioning China’s activities in the West Philippine Sea and asserting its rights in the disputed area. Allies of the Philippines and other nations deeply concerned with China’s high-handed and underhanded activities in the West Philippine Sea also invoke the arbitral ruling to castigate the bully behemoth.

The moral and legal victory of the Philippines at the PCA is the thin thread that restrains China from using its full might in the West Philippine Sea. This is international law in action, the rules-based order in operation. While it has not deterred China from carrying out violent acts in the disputed area, it has tempered China’s aggression.

With the US gone rogue, the thin thread that checks China’s belligerence in the West Philippine Sea is snapped. In the past, the US invoked the arbitral ruling to challenge China’s cocky posturing in the disputed territory. International law was used by the US to check China’s imperial ambition. Not anymore.

“I don’t need international law,” Trump swaggered in his interview with The New York Times. The turnaround of the US could be the cue China is waiting for to take off the gloves and also go fully rogue in the West Philippine Sea. Should this happen, the US would be on China’s side, not with the Philippines. This is the real danger to the Philippines of the rogue behavior of the US on the global stage.

Setting a precedent for China is one thing; the US being a reliable ally is another. The US has signed several defense-related treaties with Denmark: a Mutual Defense Agreement (1950); a General Security of Military Information Agreement (1981); a Basic Exchange and Cooperative Agreement (2011); a Mutual Logistical Support Agreement (1982); and an Acquisition and Cross-Servicing Agreement (1998). Despite these treaties, the US is threatening Denmark with all forms of coercion, including military action, to seize Greenland. The US is bullying an ally, a friend.

The Philippines also has the 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty with the US. It stipulates that the US will come to the Philippines’ defense when attacked. Is there a guarantee of this once the US decides it is no longer in its interest to defend the Philippines? The US under Trump has anchored its foreign policy on “America First.” If the US can threaten Denmark, what prevents it from doing the same to the Philippines to advance “America First?” If the US cannot honor its word with Denmark, is the Philippines any different?

What holds the international community together is international law, the rules-based world order. It is the shelter of weak and small countries from predatory superpowers. Middle-power states like the Philippines use it to protect themselves from powerful states with imperial designs and ambitions. But with the US becoming rogue, there is no longer a counterpoint to China and Russia. The world has become a volatile and hostile place where voracious superpowers strut, stepping on other nations’ necks.

In light of the drastic rearrangement and reconfiguration of the global order, it is time for the Philippines to rethink its foreign policy and review its global position. It must find a way to navigate an emerging world where might makes right.