REGION 6 IS ‘LOW-RISK’: WV, except Iloilo City, will slide to Modified GCQ on June 1

By Emme Rose Santiagudo

All provinces and highly urbanized cities (HUCs) in Western Visayas except for Iloilo City will transition from the General Community Quarantine (GCQ) to Modified General Community Quarantine (MGCQ), according to the national Inter-Agency Task Force for the Management of Emerging Infectious Diseases (IATF-MEID).

Based on Resolution No. 40 issued on Wednesday, the IATF approved the risk-level classifications of all provinces, HUCs, and independent component cities (ICCs) in the country.

For Region 6, Aklan, Antique, Iloilo, Capiz, Guimaras, Negros Occidental, and Bacolod City are considered as low-risk areas and will be placed under MGCQ until June 15, 2020.

Iloilo City, which has been classified as moderate-risk, will remain under GCQ.

Meanwhile, all areas of the National Capital Region (NCR) and the municipality of Pateros classified as high-to-moderate-risk areas shall be placed under GCQ, provided that identified high-risk barangays within the NCR shall be subject to the zoning concept to be implemented by the National Task Force (NTF) on the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).

Only Cebu City, which has been classified as a high-risk HUC, will be placed under Modified Enhanced Community Quarantine (MECQ).

The national pandemic task force said the risk-level classification was pursuant to the recommendations of the IATF sub-Technical Working Group (TWGs) on Data Analytics health parameters, health capacity, social factors, economic factors, and security factors.

On April 30, 2020, the Office of the Executive Secretary issued Executive Order No. 112 imposing the Enhanced Community Quarantine (ECQ) in High-Risk Geographic Areas in the country and GCQ in the rest of the country from May 1 to May 15, 2020.

Western Visayas was placed under GCQ from May 16 to May 31.

IATF explained that low, moderate, and high-risk areas may appeal their classification to the IATF Screening and Validation Committee with the concurrence of the Regional Interagency Task Force (RIATF) not later than May 29, 2020.

 

HEALTH PARAMETERS

Dr. Renilyn Reyes head of Public Health Program Development of the Department of Health – Center for Health Development Western Visayas (DOH-CHD 6) explained that risk-level classification approved by the IATF in the region was based on health parameters particularly case threshold, case doubling time and critical care utilization rate.

Case threshold indicates the maximum number of cases that is deemed safe or acceptable in an area based on its population, Reyes explained.

In Western Visayas, all areas except for Iloilo City did not exceed the case threshold. The infected repatriated Overseas Filipino Workers (OFWs) have been discarded in measuring the case threshold as the repatriates are considered as imported cases, Reyes added.

For Aklan, the case threshold is at 15. As of Thursday, the health department only recorded six confirmed cases indicating that the province has not exceeded its case threshold.

 

“In other areas, Antique has a case threshold of 15 with 14 confirmed cases so it’s not more than its case threshold. Capiz has only six confirmed cases with a case threshold of 20; Negros Occidental with three confirmed case and a case threshold of 65; Iloilo province with 20 confirmed cases and a case threshold of 51; and Guimaras with zero indigenous case and a case threshold of five,” Reyes reported in an online press briefing on Thursday.

 

In the case of Iloilo City, Reyes said that the case threshold is at 12 but the total confirmed cases is already at 18.

 

“Outside sa OFWs na nagpositive, 18 na ang confirmed cases in Iloilo City which is more than its case threshold. In the entire region, only Iloilo City exceeded its case threshold,” she said.

 

Meanwhile, doubling time, which is the duration in days for cases or deaths to double and measures the speed of transmission of COVID-19, can only be applied to Iloilo City, according to Reyes.

In measuring the case doubling time or the speed of transmission, lower numbers indicate faster outbreaks, while higher numbers mean slower outbreaks.

Reyes said that the case doubling time is at 19.8 days which means that the case doubles between seven to 30 days.

The critical care utilization rate (which represents the health system capacity through the number of Intensive Care Unit (ICU) beds, isolation rooms, isolation room beds, ward beds, and mechanical ventilators dedicated to severe COVID-19 patients) is at 15.54 for the entire region.

According to Reyes, this means that the region is still in the safe zone.

Based on the three parameters, Aklan, Antique, Iloilo, Capiz, Guimaras, Negros Occidental, and Bacolod City are classified as low-risk while Iloilo City as medium-risk.

Hence, all areas in the region except for Iloilo City will be placed to MGCQ by June 1.

On the other hand, Reyes said the LGU-based epidemic classification also indicates that Iloilo City is in the initiation phase of the pandemic while all the other areas in the region is on the recognition phase.

 

“Using this classification, all areas in the region except Iloilo City is on the recognition phase meaning imported ang cases or dyutay lang. The health department recommends the containment and preparation for the next stage, intensify contact-tracing, and preparation of health system, capacity to detect, isolate and treat,” she said.

 

“Iloilo City is on the initiation phase indicating that there is localized transmission. The LGU should focus on mitigation and preparation for next stage kay kon indi pagubrahon pwede kita mag-accelerate. Amo man ni ang rason nga GCQ ang Iloilo City based sa Resolution No. 40 of the IATF,” she furthered.