RECORD JUNE EXPORTS, 11-YEAR-LOW INVESTMENT PH trade picture sends mixed signals, WR report shows

Philippine goods exports reached an all-time monthly high of $8.77 billion in June, up 24.1% from a year earlier, even as foreign direct investment fell to $210 million in May, the lowest monthly reading in more than 11 years, according to WR Advisory Group’s Q2 2026 risk report.

The two signals point in opposite directions. WR rates Economic Growth Risk at 12 out of 25 (Elevated, outlook Deteriorating) and External & Geopolitical Risk at 9 (Elevated, outlook Stable).

Investment drops sharply

Net FDI inflows for January to May totaled $2.18 billion, compared with $3.27 billion a year earlier, a decline WR puts at 33.4% (recomputed from those inputs: 33.3%, within rounding).

The May figure of $210 million was the weakest since March 2015. WR reports the 2026 FDI forecast was cut to $7 billion, below 2025’s $7.791 billion, which itself was a five-year low.

Foreign direct investment

Exports soar, but imports soar faster

May goods exports were $7.87 billion, up 7.6%, before June’s 24.1% jump to $8.77 billion. But the trade deficit widened to $5.97 billion in April, up 49.8% from a year earlier, and $5.48 billion in May, up 50.5%. Imports accounted for 64.6% of total trade in April and 62.9% in May.

From WR’s May figures, implied imports were about $13.35 billion (computed: exports of $7.87 billion plus the $5.48 billion deficit).

Trade indicators, April–June 2026

WR rates the growth outlook “Deteriorating,” and the government has cut its 2026 growth target to 3.5–4.5%. The peso assumption has also been moved to ₱60–62 per dollar. The report’s external section also flags Middle East exposure: nearly 11,000 overseas Filipinos had been repatriated by 17 June, and the Department of Social Welfare and Development had assisted 4,398 returnees by 29 June.

External-exposure indicators