Recalibrating Growth After the NIR Split

The 4.3 percent economic growth posted by Western Visayas in 2024 may appear underwhelming compared to the region’s previous standing as one of the fastest-growing economies in the country. But this slowdown must be seen in context—not as a failure, but as a necessary recalibration in the wake of the separation of Negros Occidental and Bacolod City with the re-establishment of the Negros Island Region (NIR).

Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) fell below the region’s 6 to 7 percent target, but the numbers still tell a story of resilience. Western Visayas generated PHP645.76 billion in total economic value—up by PHP26.5 billion from the adjusted 2023 figure that no longer includes the economic output of the two separated areas. For a region that lost roughly 40 percent of its economic mass, a positive growth rate is not just acceptable; it is commendable.

Understanding this performance requires a more nuanced appreciation of statistics, particularly in public discourse. Comparing pre-NIR and post-NIR growth on the same terms would be misleading. The regional economy has undergone a structural shift. The size of the denominator changed, but growth remains real, with most sectors still posting gains. This recalibration is not an indictment of local governance or regional planning. It is simply the reality of a region redefining itself under a new economic map.

That Western Visayas continues to grow at all is in large part thanks to its dominant services sector. Services now account for 66.5 percent of the region’s economic output—a significant buffer that shielded the region from a deeper decline. The sector grew by 7.4 percent in 2024, driven by higher government spending, rising investments in durable goods, and service exports.

Tourism, education, health services, and even business process outsourcing have long been the lifeblood of the region’s urban centers. Iloilo City, in particular, has emerged as a hub for digital services and academic migration, supporting local jobs and attracting new investments. These are strengths that must now be deepened. Policymakers should double down on enhancing service-based industries, not just to recover lost economic ground but to build a future-proof economy.

But the continued contraction in agriculture, forestry, and fishing (AFF)—down 7.6 percent in 2024 after a 6.2 percent drop the year before—is a serious concern. It reveals the fragility of the region’s rural economy and the systemic neglect of those who grow our food and protect our natural resources.

It is unacceptable that in a region known for its agricultural heritage, farmers and fishers continue to be left behind—even during post-pandemic recovery. Climate change, rising input costs, outdated infrastructure, and poor market access continue to weigh heavily on this sector. And yet, AFF still contributes 14.5 percent to the regional economy—larger than many realize.

The persistent drag of AFF performance should prompt hard questions. How much of the regional budget is truly invested in agricultural modernization and climate resiliency? What programs are in place to ensure that rural economies can pivot toward higher-value activities or non-farm employment? If these questions cannot be answered clearly, then something is deeply broken in our development priorities.

Beyond GRDP figures, what matters more is who’s actually benefiting from this growth. Per capita GRDP inched up to PHP132,404 in 2024, while household spending rose by 2.6 percent. These are positive trends on paper, but we must not confuse averages with lived realities. The modest uptick in per capita income may mask income inequality, wage stagnation, or the growing cost of living in both urban and rural areas.

Economic growth that does not translate to job quality, food affordability, and wage justice will eventually erode public trust and social cohesion. Regional leaders should recognize that statistical growth alone does not mean prosperity for all. The real test lies in how inclusive that growth is—whether it narrows disparities, uplifts the most vulnerable, and gives every resident a stake in regional development.

The split from NIR offers Western Visayas a clean slate to rethink its strategies, re-center its investments, and rewrite its story. But this can only be done with honesty about the challenges, creativity in addressing them, and commitment to making growth felt where it matters most: in the lives of the people.

The regional economy is still growing—but the next step must be about making that growth more meaningful, more inclusive, and more sustainable. That is the true recalibration that Western Visayas must now pursue.