Preparing for perfect storm of conflict and climate change

By Nickolay Mladenov

Climate change is one of the most pressing issues of our time, and its effects are felt by communities worldwide. But for those living in conflict-affected areas, its impact can be particularly devastating. The combination of rising temperatures, changing rainfall patterns, and increasing frequency and severity of extreme weather events can exacerbate existing vulnerabilities and create new yet unseen ones.

Climate change will complicate conflict mediation and resolution efforts. It will have a long-term effect on the challenges of rebuilding and recovering from conflict. This is reflected in the Notre Dame Global Adaptation Initiative Index, which ranks Afghanistan, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Mali, Somalia and Yemen – all victims of protracted conflict – among the most vulnerable to climate change.

While links among climate change, peace and security have been widely recognized, global action across the climate finance spectrum still needs to catch up to reach those in fragile areas.

Under Egypt’s presidency, the COP27 UN climate summit saw a breakthrough agreement on creating a fund to respond to loss and damage, particularly in nations most vulnerable to climate impacts. It also marked the launch of the first-ever peace-related initiative at a Conference of the Parties, “Climate Responses for Sustaining Peace.”

In preparation for COP28, last March, the United Arab Emirates convened an informal meeting of the UN Security Council on climate finance to build and sustain peace. As part of Abu Dhabi Sustainability Week and as president of COP28, the UAE last week hosted a high-level discussion on climate change, peace and security.

These are essential steps in the right direction, but still much work remains to be done to integrate the peace-building and climate agenda in conflict-affected areas.

One of the most significant effects of climate change in communities affected by war is the risk of displacement. As natural disasters such as floods, droughts and storms increase, they will force people to flee their homes with little or no warning. According to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), environmental degradation has already caused more than 20 million people to leave their homes.

From the Pacific Ocean, where such countries as Tuvalu and Kiribati face rising sea levels, to Africa, where drought and desertification are dislodging communities as they are forced to seek food and water, climate-affected displacement will only increase in the future.

Another significant impact is the loss of livelihoods. Increased competition for resources such as water and land can exacerbate tensions or lead to outbreaks of violence and insecurity.

According to the UN, by 2050, more than half of the world’s population is expected to live in water-stressed regions. The Middle East is particularly vulnerable.

Water scarcity is already contributing to a humanitarian crisis and driving displacement in Iraq. As of January 2019, the International Organization for Migration recorded almost 15,000 new displacements due to water shortages from the country’s southern governorates and a further 12,000 due to drought in November 2021.

The International Committee of the Red Cross has been ringing the alarm bell on the effect of climate change on countries mired in conflict, most notably in the Central African Republic, Mali and Iraq.

In addition to these direct effects, climate change can significantly impact the health of people living in conflict-affected areas, increasing the spread of diseases such as malaria and dengue fever. A decline in crop yields in hotspots like Afghanistan, Yemen and South Sudan has contributed to hunger or malnutrition.

In Somalia, frequent droughts and floods, or landslides in the Democratic Republic of Congo, have directly led to a rise in cases of cholera and diarrhea.

The political and security effects of climate change cannot be overstated, particularly for conflict-ridden areas, and are likely to be a growing source of communal and inter-state violence in the future. Yet the UN Development Program reports that less than US$2 per capita flows from climate finance to countries categorized as “extremely fragile.”

That is why more attention and resources must be directed toward addressing the impacts of climate change on conflict-affected communities.

First, it is necessary to increase funding for climate-change adaptation and disaster-risk reduction in conflict-affected areas. This could include funding infrastructure projects, early warning systems and emergency response plans.

Humanitarian, security, and development actors, in particular, can start identifying the modalities to get finance into fragile settings. Inevitably, this will need to be matched by progress on the technical issues of how much funding can be disbursed in challenging environments.

Second, stakeholders need to gear up their programs by investing in sustainable livelihoods including agricultural training and microfinance along with health care and disease prevention. For this to happen, UN agencies dealing with conflict-affected regions need more support from member states.

Third, renewable energy sources, including off-grid solar generation, must be supported and encouraged in conflict-affected areas. The private sector already has some important innovations that can be integrated and used more widely.

Fourth, nationally determined contributions under the Paris Agreement remain critical to global efforts to tackle climate change. Yet peace and security do not feature prominently in them. That needs to change.

Finally, we must increase efforts to address the underlying causes of conflict – poverty, inequality, and political instability.

All efforts to mitigate the adverse effects of climate change on conflict-affected communities will require collaboration and cooperation among governments, international organizations, and local communities. That is why it is essential that the conversations between stakeholders quickly move from ideas to actionable plans.

Failure to take action on climate change will only exacerbate the suffering of communities in conflict-affected areas. It is therefore urgent that COP28 makes ambitious efforts to mitigate the effects of climate change on these communities.

This article was provided by Syndication Bureau, which holds copyright.