Preempting impeachment

By Artchil B. Fernandez

The process of impeaching Vice President Sara Duterte again has begun. Four impeachment complaints from various groups were filed in the House of Representatives against her. The House has taken up the impeachment complaints, which could end up either dismissed or approved by the chamber.

The Makabayan bloc lodged the first impeachment complaint against Sara Duterte. The Tindig Pilipinas group filed the second complaint, while a third complaint was supported by Mamamayang Liberal party-list Rep. Leila de Lima. A fourth complaint was sponsored by Deputy Speaker Paolo Ortega V and Manila Rep. Bienvenido Abante Jr. The four complaints were referred to the House Justice Committee, which started its deliberations on them this week.

Days prior to the deliberation of the House Justice Committee on the impeachment complaints against her, Vice President Sara Duterte publicly declared she will run for president in the 2028 election. The announcement did not come as a shock to the public, for it is already expected that she aims for the highest post in the land. It is the timing of her declaration that became the object of curiosity and scrutiny.

Based on previous practice, presidential hopefuls usually officially declare their candidacy near the date of official filing of certificates of candidacy. While they telegraph to the public their intention to run for the highest post through nonverbal cues, they refrain from making a formal declaration until the election period is about to officially commence. This is to avoid being the early target of rivals and the subject of intense demolition jobs. Another reason is to prevent peaking too soon in the race, losing steam when the official campaign starts. Timing is everything in a presidential quest.

It is two years away from the 2028 presidential election, but Sara Duterte has already formally declared her candidacy for the presidency. This is a break from long-held tradition. The official announcement is premature from the standpoint of political reality and strategy. Why did she do it despite the risk and danger to her candidacy?

Looming impeachment pushed Sara Duterte to declare her candidacy for president this early. Her impending impeachment forced her to make the risky gamble of formally announcing her candidacy two years prior. She has no choice. If she is impeached and convicted, perpetual disqualification from holding any public office is the penalty. Should the impeachment effort succeed in bringing it to its logical conclusion, she cannot run for president or for any public post anyway. Sara Duterte is left with no other alternative.

By declaring she is gunning for the presidency in 2028, Sara Duterte is drawing a red line for members of Congress — representatives and senators. She is issuing a stern warning to them. “If your impeachment effort fails and I win the presidency in 2028, you will get your just deserts. Beware!” Sara Duterte admonished them.

The Dutertes are vengeful creatures. Revenge is the heart and soul of Sara Duterte’s presidential pursuit. She and her family are possessed with bitterness from the betrayal of their erstwhile ally — House Marcos — and their supporters. Their patriarch is detained in a world-class prison in The Hague, facing charges of crimes against humanity before the International Criminal Court (ICC).

From the perspective of the Dutertes, Sara Duterte’s impeachment is part of the grand scheme of their enemies to politically eliminate, if not politically cripple, them. Retaking Malacañang is the only way to satisfy their lust for revenge. This is only possible if Sara Duterte is not impeached. Stopping, if not derailing, her impeachment at all costs is therefore the top priority of the Dutertes. The announcement of Sara Duterte’s plan to run for president is designed to preempt her impeachment by intimidating or scaring enough legislators to block it.

The impeachment of Sara Duterte becomes another arena of contestation between House Duterte and House Marcos. It becomes a crucial battlefront in the nasty war of attrition between the two former allies. Congress is the current theater of war of the collapsed UniTeam. How the House of Representatives handles the impeachment complaint will suggest who has the upper hand in this new flashpoint of the war.

Earlier, impeachment complaints against Bongbong Marcos (BBM) were swiftly dismissed by the House, giving him one-year immunity from such a move. This week, the House Justice Committee dispatched the first impeachment complaint for violating the one-year ban, while the second complaint was withdrawn to support the third complaint. The third and fourth impeachment complaints were found by the House Justice Committee sufficient in form and substance. The vote on the substance of the complaints yielded an interesting outcome — 54-1-0. Only one opposed it, while none abstained. This indicates who has the numbers as of now, but this can shift in the future.

Sara Duterte’s presidential declaration, on the other hand, also generated a chilling effect on members of the House. The National Unity Party (NUP), a major partner in the administration coalition, officially said it will not support the impeachment complaints unless new evidence is presented. However, some members of NUP are uncomfortable with the position, implying the party is still grappling to find a definite stand on the issue. It is clear behind-the-scenes maneuvering is happening, making the situation fluid.

The battle for numbers in the House is a key point of contention between the Dutertes and the Marcoses. If the Dutertes successfully preempt the impeachment, this reveals the Marcoses are losing their grip on power. If the impeachment moves forward to the Senate, it indicates the Marcoses have the upper hand in this ugly game of thrones.

The nation is waiting with bated breath for the action of the House on the matter.