Political surveys unbelievable

By Herbert Vego

IT alarmed me to hear “podcaster” Toto Causing say “nagtataka ako” why Erwin Tulfo remains No. 1 in the senatorial surveys. That statement carries the presumption that he believes in the authenticity of the surveys.

Such presumption is dangerous because it influences the minds of the targeted audience. It’s scary that many others in both the streamline and online media echo the unproven information.

The surveys discourage idealistic individuals from even trying to run for a national office. They fear that being a “nobody” in the surveys would give them zero chance of winning.

If I may suggest, let responsible journalists, broadcasters and vloggers attack the credibility of the commissioned surveys, since surveyors exist for profit.  Otherwise, these media people would unwittingly collaborate with the pollsters.

The believers in the political surveys remind us of the famous 1941 quotation from Joseph Goebbels, chief propagandist of Adolf Hitler: “Repeat a lie often enough and it becomes the truth.”

Therefore, even fake news appears factual when orchestrated to mass audiences, as we have proven for ourselves in the months preceding every election – thus blurring our common sense.

ACT-CIS Representative Erwin Tulfo understands that many Filipinos easily believe the surveys, which is why he drums up himself for being “No. 1” in eight senatorial surveys for the May 12, 2025 senatorial election. That there are now eight survey companies vying for patronage is clear indication of the business’ profitability.

There used to be only two commercial pollsters, namely Social Weather Stations (SWS) and Pulse Asia.

It is not surprising that the results of the periodic surveys by SWS and Pulse Asia  are nearly identical. They are partly owned by overlapping stockholders, including – as “googled” — Felipe Miranda, Rosalinda T. Miranda, Gemino H. Abad and Mercedes R. Abad.

Take note of the other senatorial survey frontrunners: former Senator Vicente “Tito” Sotto III, Ping Lacson, broadcaster Ben Tulfo (Erwin and Sen. Raffy Tulfo’s brother), Sen. Pia Cayetano, Manny Pacquiao, Makati Mayor Abby Binay, Sen Ronald dela Rosa, Sen. Bong Revilla and entertainer Willie Revillame.

If we swallow that bait hook, line and sinker, what does that make of us? Non-thinking bobotantes?

Logically, we need to realize that, as the pollsters admit, they have 1,200 to 1,800 respondents. If 43 percent of those unidentified survey respondents really chose Erwin Tulfo as published, why turn that percentage into the national average? Isn’t that mathematically improbable in a nation with 68.6 million registered voters?

While in Journalism school, we were taught to report facts, not fiction. Otherwise, we would be fooling our readers and listeners, including ourselves.

Have you been surveyed?  If not, that is not surprising. We have yet to know one person who has been surveyed.

In fact, when a “lapsus” columnist wrote about not having known a survey participant, somebody claiming to be from “False Asia” approached to “survey” him while we were having coffee at Hotel del Rio.

Anyway, let us play devil’s advocate, as in believing Erwin Tulfo, who said in a radio broadcast that all eight pollsters (SWS, Pulse Asia, Octo Research, Laylo Research, Tangere, etc) had rated him No. 1. If so, then those eight must have gathered mostly the same respondents.

Let us bear in mind that the survey sponsors, euphemistically called “subscribers,” are either politicians or their backers who pay to mind-condition voters who tend to gravitate towards the llamado to avoid “wasting” votes.

Tulfo bragged about his survey ranking on the air at a time when the Commission on Elections (Comelec) had dismissed the complaints seeking to disqualify him over his citizenship.

The matter made the headlines after the United States Embassy in Manila leaked the information that the same person using the name Erich Sylvester Tulfo was born in the US state of Hawaii on December 30, 1965 – hence, an American citizen.

But the familiar Erwin Tulfo, according to the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) office, was born two years earlier on August 10, 1963 in Tacloban City.

The “miracle” of one person born in two places at different times ought to be taken seriously.  How come the Comelec opted to sweep it under the rug? Were there millions of “reasons”?