Political dead-end

By Artchil B. Fernandez

An hour before the filing of certificates of candidacy closed on the final day of filing, the ruling party, PDP-Laban pulled a last-minute surprise. Out of the blue, Sen. Bato de la Rosa by his lonesome arrived at the venue and filed his candidacy for president under the administration party. This caught everyone by surprise, public reaction ranging from disbelief to outright hilarious.

Handlers of the administration spun the “Bato episode” as a masterstroke, a demonstration of the political astuteness of the ruling party. In trying to perpetuate the myth of 2016, they claim this is part of the strategy of the administration to confuse the enemy. A few days before, PDP-Laban nominated standard-bearer, Sen. Bong Go accompanied by his principal filed his candidacy for vice-president with Du30 declaring his retirement from politics.

Far from the political sophistication the ruling party wants to project, the sudden appearance of Bato de la Rosa as its presidential bet is emblematic of the crisis plaguing it. It signifies the disintegration of the ruling coalition, the most glaring evidence that it has reached a political dead end.

For the first time in the post-EDSA era, the ruling coalition is the weakest, the most unprepared and in disarray among the groups contesting the national election with the highest office in the land at stake.  Its vice-presidential candidate filed his candidacy alone while its senatorial bets on their own filed their candidacies on different dates. Finally, its standard-bearer was chosen two hours before the deadline.

As recounted by Bato de la Rosa, he got a call from Sec. Cusi, head of their wing of PDP-Laban to run for president at three o’clock in the afternoon. Shocked by his sudden selection, he clarified with Cusi if Du30 was informed of the decision fearing a reprimand from the capo di tutti capi. It was only after he got the confirmation that Bato de la Rosa proceeded to Sofitel Philippine Plaza to carry out the order.

Bato de la Rosa was candid and honest enough to admit he is only a placeholder for another candidate. The administration party is hoping it can persuade presidential daughter Sara Duterte to change her mind and run for president under its banner or under a coalition it will forge by November 15, the substitution deadline.

The inability of the ruling party to cobble a slate strongly indicates it is on the ropes. In the context of the Philippines, an administration party still in search of a presidential candidate past the filing of certificates of candidacy signifies it is on the throes of death. The disintegration of its coalition, with allies not only leaving the ruling party but fielding their own presidential candidates against the administration reveals its head, Du30, is now a certified lame-duck.

It is remarkable Du30 is ending his presidency in dud considering that a year ago this populist autocrat appears to be invincible with key political players either cowed or in fear. In the twilight of his rule, Du30 is exposed as having feet of clay, the much-vaunted brilliant strategist turned out to be a dull and mediocre operator. The greatly hyped political acumen is nothing but a farce.

The collapse of the ruling coalition exposed Du30 as a lousy and so-so political tactician. His inability to hold together his coalition indicates not only leadership failure but political naivete. He cannot even handle his warring families.

The conflict between Du30’s first family (Sara, Pulong and Baste) and the second family (Honeylet Avanceña) allied with Bong Go is the main reason Sara without H refuses to run for president. The Davao City mayor’s contempt of the long-time personal aide makes it impossible for them to team up. Du30 is working furiously hard to patch up the two before the substitution deadline expires.

Du30’s success to pair his daughter with his caregiver depends on how strong the filial devotion of the mayor is. The horror of her father being prosecuted in the country or worse dragged into The Hague before the International Criminal Court (ICC) after he steps down could be a strong inducement for the daughter to change her mind. Du30’s dream however dies if the daughter’s dislike of the faithful aide is overpowering.

Much worse fate can befall Du30 if his daughter’s loathing of Bong Go is so intense, she decides to team up with Bongbong Marcos and becomes his vice president. This will pit the daughter directly against the caregiver, mano-a-mano, making the 2022 election truly interesting and intriguing. It is a nightmare scenario for an aging populist.

Sara Duterte this week hinted she might support Bongbong Marcos even if she will not run for a national post. If Sara Duterte goes to Bongbong Marcos’ side, this will also put her in direct collision with her father who has no choice but to back up the Bato de la Rosa-Bong Go tandem, the official administration bets.

It is crucial for Du30 to convince his daughter to be the administration’s bet for president to avoid an embarrassing scenario where he clashes with her. Unless Sara Duterte agrees to be her father’s presidential candidate, their head-to-head brawl is inevitable. Only her team-up with Bong Go can prevent this ugly and awful scenario. Du30 and his faction of the PDP-Laban have reached a political dead end and Sara Duterte is their only way out.  Another option like reviving the defunct Bong Go-Du30 duo Cusi lately floated is a further confirmation it is the end of the road for the ruling party. Instead of resurrecting the original tandem, PDP-Laban (Cusi wing) should just stick to the Bato de la Rosa-Bong Go team-up which looks comical but not as grotesque as the original pair.

PDP-Laban, the ruling party is in a deep crisis, a crisis that gives it little room to maneuver.