Political alignment of Filipinos

By Artchil B. Fernandez

The 2028 election is shaping up to be a tectonic battle between two opposing major forces. The political landscape could be rearranged and reconfigured with the possible conclusion of the impeachment trial of Vice President Sara Duterte toward the end of the year.

It seems the present administration is seeking to realize its goal through the impeachment trial: removing Sara Duterte from the political equation in the 2028 election. This could intensify the polarization of political forces into two main blocs, pro-Duterte and anti-Duterte. While the pro-Duterte forces are solid and united, the anti-Duterte forces remain diverse and fragmented.

When UniTeam was still intact, it would have been unthinkable to imagine that the 2028 presidential election would become a clash between pro-Duterte and anti-Duterte forces. It is a fascinating political development for the country to have arrived where it is now.

With the crystallization of political alignments between the Dutertes and their opponents ahead of the 2028 political battle, where do Filipinos stand amid this polarization? Momentum Research provided a snapshot of the current mood of the nation. The research firm has been tracking the partisanship of Filipinos and their political identities. The October 2026 survey provides a good picture of the political standing of Filipinos. The survey yielded interesting results.

The survey first asked respondents whether they were supporters of the administration, the opposition, or independents. Nationwide, nearly two-thirds (64.9%) identified themselves as independents. Only 15.2% said they supported the administration, while 12.4% said they supported the opposition. Small proportions, 5.8% and 1.6%, respectively, said they did not know or did not answer.

By geographical area, 64.8% of respondents from Metro Manila said they were independents, 19.7% supported the opposition, while 11.3% supported the administration. Small proportions said they did not know (3.7%) or did not answer (0.5%). The rest of Luzon, however, had different results. Nearly three-fourths (72.7%) identified themselves as independents, while 14.8% supported the administration. Less than a tenth (8.2%) supported the opposition, and 3.3% said they did not know. Only 0.9% refused to answer.

In the Visayas, a little over half (54.1%) said they were independents, and a fifth (20.9%) supported the administration. Nearly the same proportions, 10.0% and 10.7%, respectively, identified themselves as opposition supporters or said they did not know, while 4.3% did not answer.

A majority (58.4%) in Mindanao said they were independents, with nearly a fifth (18.6%) identifying with the opposition. Those who identified themselves with the administration accounted for 13.6%. Small proportions said they did not know (7.9%) or did not answer (1.5%).

The second question of the survey was more specific. Respondents were asked whether they were supporters of the Marcoses, supporters of the Dutertes, or supporters of the opposition (former Vice President Leni Robredo, Sen. Bam Aquino, Sen. Risa Hontiveros, and their other allies). Nationally, nearly half (44.5%) said they did not support any of the mentioned groups. About a third (27.8%) identified themselves as Duterte supporters, while 12.1% described themselves as supporters of the opposition (Robredo et al.). A tenth (10.5%) said they were supporters of the Marcoses and their allies. Small proportions said they did not know (3.4%) or did not answer (1.6%).

In Metro Manila, about half (47.3%) said they did not support any of the listed groups, while over a fourth (26.7%) considered themselves Duterte supporters. Those who said they were opposition (Robredo et al.) supporters accounted for 16.2%, while Marcos and allied partisans made up about a tenth (8.8%). Only 1.0% said they were unsure or did not know.

A little over half (54.0%) of respondents from the rest of Luzon did not support any of the listed groups, while 16.2% were supporters of the Dutertes and their allies. Opposition (Robredo et al.) supporters accounted for 13.4%, while Marcos and allied supporters made up 13.3%. Those who did not know accounted for 2.2%, while 0.8% did not answer.

Over a third (38.6%) of respondents in the Visayas did not support any group, while a fourth (25.2%) said they were supporters of the Dutertes and their allies. Nearly a fifth (17.3%) were opposition (Robredo et al.) supporters, and about a tenth (9.1%) said they supported the Marcoses and their allies. Those who did not know accounted for 5.8%, while 3.9% did not answer.

A majority (53.5%) of respondents in Mindanao were supporters of the Dutertes and their allies, while nearly a third (29.0%) said they did not support any of the listed groups. Marcos and allied supporters accounted for 7.1%, while 5.2% said they did not know. Opposition (Robredo et al.) supporters made up 3.0%, while 2.2% did not answer.

The data are clear: Nearly two-thirds (64.9%) of Filipinos identified themselves as independents, and about half (44.5%) of respondents said they supported neither the Dutertes, the Marcoses, nor the opposition (Pink) group. This suggests that the 2028 election remains an open-ended contest, with a high proportion of Filipinos either independent or unaffiliated with any of the listed political groups. To win in 2028, pro- and anti-Duterte forces must win over a huge segment of unaffiliated Filipino voters.

Duterte supporters remain the largest identified political bloc, but they account for only a little over a fourth of respondents. Combined support for the Marcoses and the opposition (Pink) forces nearly matches that of the Duterte bloc. Given the current political alignment of Filipinos, the 2028 presidential election will pose a huge challenge to both pro- and anti-Duterte forces.