PHL tops global disaster risk index for 17th year

By Francis Allan L. Angelo

The Philippines has once again been ranked the world’s most disaster-prone country in the WorldRiskIndex (WRI) 2025, underscoring its high exposure to extreme weather events and geographic vulnerabilities.

The country holds the highest overall disaster risk globally, ranking 1st worldwide, with a Very High risk score of 46.56, driven by Very High scores for Exposure (39.99, 4th globally) and Vulnerability (54.20).

The country has topped the index for the 17th consecutive year, holding the dubious distinction since 2010 after ranking second to India from 2001 to 2009 and third in the year 2000.

Asia and the Americas remain the global hotspots for disaster risk, with India and Indonesia following the Philippines at 2nd (40.73) and 3rd (39.80) respectively.

Globally, floods remain among the most frequent and devastating natural hazards, affecting over 1.6 billion people and causing more than USD 650 billion in economic damage worldwide between 2000 and 2019.

The Philippines specifically holds a Very High flood risk score of 50.05 (an adapted exposure calculation focusing only on river and coastal floods), ranking 9th globally for this specific threat.

The WorldRiskReport 2025, published by Bündnis Entwicklung Hilft (BEH) and the Ruhr University Bochum – Institute for International Law of Peace and Armed Conflict (IFHV), included an exemplary, locally adapted exposure analysis emphasizing river and coastal flooding in the Philippine provinces.

The index ranks 193 countries based on a composite score derived from exposure and vulnerability, where vulnerability includes susceptibility, coping capacity, and adaptive capacity.

Exposure refers to the population’s proximity to hazards such as earthquakes, typhoons, floods, tsunamis, cyclones, and sea level rise.

Susceptibility is a measure of social disparities, economic deprivation, development deficits, and the combined effects of conflict, violence, disease, and epidemics.

Coping capacity assesses the availability of healthcare, governance quality, and resilience to recent societal shocks.

Adaptive capacity reflects investment in education, research, health systems, and infrastructure for long-term resilience.

Despite China, Mexico, and Japan scoring higher in exposure, they ranked only 9th, 5th, and 17th respectively due to stronger coping and adaptive systems.

The countries with the lowest risk scores were Monaco, Andorra, and San Marino.

In Southeast Asia, all countries ranked lower than the Philippines in disaster risk: Indonesia (3rd), Myanmar (6th), Vietnam (13th), Thailand (24th), Malaysia (37th), Cambodia (64th), Laos (122nd), Brunei (169th), and Singapore (188th).

Floods remain among the most frequent and devastating natural hazards, affecting over 1.6 billion people and causing more than USD 650 billion in global damage between 2000 and 2019.

The Philippines ranks 9th globally for flood risk, with a score of 50.05, based on a specialized exposure analysis focusing on river and coastal flooding.

This analysis, developed using a 1-kilometer grid and five intensity levels up to 2.5 meters in flood depth, showed how local conditions influence risk.

Localized exposure analysis revealed that provinces with flat terrain, high population density, and poor drainage infrastructure face the gravest flooding threats.

Cagayan topped the list with an exposure score of 88.10, followed by Agusan del Norte (87.51), Pangasinan (85.19), Pampanga (83.49), and Maguindanao (82.94). These high-ranking provinces generally share a location in lowland basins with flat topography, which causes water to drain slowly and often remain standing for days.

Metropolitan Manila, ranked 6th with an exposure score of 81.12, faces heightened risk because its low-lying location and high degree of soil sealing (impervious surfaces) promote urban flash flooding during heavy rainfall.

At the low end of the exposure spectrum are Marinduque (81st, 0.01), Laguna (80th, 0.02), Batanes (79th, 0.17), and Sarangani (78th, 0.41), with significantly lower exposure scores.

Laguna stood out as an example of effective risk reduction, benefiting from its hilly terrain and the natural retention capacity of Laguna de Bay.

The report praised the Philippines for local governance reforms and nature-based solutions such as man

Laguna specifically demonstrated how adaptive strategies reduce risk, benefiting from hilly terrain and the massive buffering effect of Laguna de Bay, the country’s largest inland lake, which acts as a natural retention area.

The Philippines is also highlighted as a positive example of governance reform in disaster risk reduction, demonstrating the impact of good governance through local networks and decentralized structures.

Targeted spatial planning, adapted building regulations, and sustainable infrastructure measures, such as mangrove reforestation along coastlines, are cited as effective methods to reduce local exposure.

The study emphasized that only such spatially differentiated analyses can provide the decision-relevant details necessary to prioritize tailored adaptation strategies.

Globally, the report emphasized that vulnerability is exacerbated not only by natural processes but also by man-made factors such as poor urban planning, social inequality, and weak health systems.

Experts highlighted that effective flood prevention requires multidimensional strategies, from decentralized governance and community-based disaster preparedness to the use of satellites, artificial intelligence, and nature-based solutions such as mangroves and wetlands.

The analysis stressed that local-level adaptation is critical, as risk exposure varies widely across provinces and can be reduced by sustainable spatial planning and infrastructure investment.

The WorldRiskReport 2025 was implemented with Dr. Katrin Radtke (IFHV) serving as the scientific lead, Daniel Weller (IFHV) as the Senior data scientist, Dr. Ilona Auer Frege (BEH) as a managing director and author, and Philipp Kienzl (BEH) as editor-in-chief.