PAGASA, Oxfam strengthen disaster forecasting partnership

QUEZON CITY — The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration and Oxfam Pilipinas signed an agreement on July 24, 2026, to strengthen impact-based forecasting, forecast literacy, early warning systems and anticipatory action amid increasing climate and weather risks.

The memorandum of agreement supports the implementation of Republic Act No. 12287, or the Declaration of State of Imminent Disaster Act.

The partnership aims to strengthen science-based decision-making and improve the ability of national and local institutions to act before hazards escalate into disasters.

The agreement comes as PAGASA projects that the Philippines may experience fewer but potentially stronger tropical cyclones as El Niño conditions are expected to persist until early 2027.

The outlook highlights the need to translate scientific forecasts into timely preparedness measures and anticipatory action.

A central component of the partnership is PAGASA’s Multi-Hazard Impact-Based Forecasting and Early Warning Systems Project, or MHIBFEWS.

The Green Climate Fund-supported initiative is leading the development and institutionalization of impact-based forecasting in the Philippines.

Through the project, PAGASA has been shifting from traditional hazard forecasting toward forecasts that combine hazard, exposure and vulnerability information.

The approach describes the likely effects of impending hazards on people, livelihoods, infrastructure and critical services.

The forecasts are intended to help national agencies, local governments and communities make timely, risk-informed decisions before disasters occur.

PAGASA and Oxfam Pilipinas will jointly develop learning activities and simulation exercises that demonstrate how climate and weather data can serve as practical tools for disaster risk reduction and climate resilience.

The partnership will support the refinement of impact-based forecasting systems.

It will also assist in establishing and validating thresholds and triggers for anticipatory action.

The collaboration will include climate forums and other capacity-building activities.

The two organizations will promote data-informed decision-making and the development of evidence-based policies.

The partnership will also seek stronger cooperation among government agencies, local government units, civil society organizations, academic institutions and development partners.

“This partnership reflects our shared commitment to ensuring that weather and climate information leads to timely decisions that protect lives, livelihoods, and communities before hazards escalate into disasters,” said Dr. Nathaniel T. Servando, Administrator of PAGASA.

“Through the MHIBFEWS Project, PAGASA has been advancing Impact-Based Forecasting and strengthening the scientific foundation for anticipatory action in the Philippines. Working with Oxfam Pilipinas enables us to build on these efforts by improving forecast literacy, strengthening institutional capacities, and ensuring that scientific information is translated into coordinated early actions that reduce disaster risks.”

For Oxfam Pilipinas, the agreement reinforces its long-standing commitment to anticipatory action, community resilience and locally led disaster risk reduction.

“Climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, making it essential to move from reacting to disasters toward anticipating them,” said Lot Felizco, Executive Director of Oxfam Pilipinas.

“By combining PAGASA’s scientific expertise with Oxfam’s experience in anticipatory action, community resilience, and policy advocacy, we can help ensure that governments, civil society, and at-risk communities have the knowledge, systems, and partnerships needed to act early and reduce disaster impacts.”

The agreement builds on years of collaboration between PAGASA and Oxfam Pilipinas in advancing anticipatory action.

Their previous work included support for impact-based forecasting approaches, early-action protocols, forecast literacy programs and policy dialogues.

Those initiatives contributed to the institutionalization of anticipatory action in the Philippines.

The agreement also supports national efforts to strengthen disaster risk governance and climate resilience.

It seeks to ensure that decisions at every level are informed by integrated risk data.

PAGASA and Oxfam Pilipinas said the partnership is intended to make anticipatory action a standard part of disaster risk management.

The organizations aim to ensure communities receive not only timely forecasts but also the capacity, resources and institutional support needed to act before disasters strike.

PAGASA is an attached agency of the Department of Science and Technology and serves as the country’s national meteorological and hydrological service.

The agency provides weather, climate, hydrological, flood, astronomical and other specialized services supporting public safety, disaster risk reduction and sustainable development.

Oxfam Pilipinas is part of Oxfam’s global movement working to end poverty and inequality.

The organization works with multisectoral partners to strengthen resilience, promote gender and climate justice, advance anticipatory action and support climate adaptation and disaster risk reduction through locally led and evidence-based approaches.

Oxfam Pilipinas has championed anticipatory action since 2017.