On razor’s edge

By Artchil B. Fernandez

 

Nail-biting, edgy, on razor’s edge!

This is the surprise the 2020 US presidential brought not only to the Americans but to the rest of the world. Being the remaining superpower, key events in the US like the presidential election is a major concern of the global community.

The 2020 US election turned out to be a suspense-thriller series, a roller-coaster ride with unpredictable twists and turns bringing the audience on the edge. There are surprises and disappointments both for the Democrats and the Republicans. The actual scenario did not go according to the script of both groups.

Democrats expected the election will be over soon with swift and decisive victories in the early count sealing their triumph. The Republicans on the other hand were counting on that late surge of their votes will not only stave-off the challenge but will give Donald Trump a convincing win. Neither of the expectations materialized and the US is again on the edge with no clear winner on election night which is the usual scene in US elections.

Suddenly it’s 2000 once again but instead of the presidential race coming down to one state, Florida and its hanging chad, this time the election is going to be decided by half-dozen pivotal and battle-ground states – Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.   Except for Nevada, Trump won the rest in the 2016 election.

Few minutes after voting closed, networks began calling states either for Biden or Trump depending on their leaning – blue for solid Democrat and red for reliably Republican.  Southern states of Alabama and Mississippi were tallied under the Republican column while New England states of Massachusetts and Connecticut were placed on the Democratic side. Big prize Texas with 32 electoral votes flirted with blue for a while before finally going red as well as Florida with its 29 electoral votes. Democrats countered with the biggest catch, California (55 electoral votes) and New York (29 electoral votes).

By midnight Biden amassed 223 electoral votes while Trump had 213 and the battleground states remained unpredictable. Trump was ahead in Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin while Biden was leading in Arizona and Nevada.

Trump claimed victory and cried fraud. He alleged the election is being stolen. Biden on the other hand did not declare victory but expressed confidence in winning in the end, calling for the counting of votes. The winner of the 2020 election is unclear at that time with both camps making their own claims.

The following day there was a tectonic shift in two battleground states. As mail-in ballots were counted, the more than a hundred thousand lead of Trump in Wisconsin and his over two hundred thousand lead in Michigan were overwhelmed by the Biden tide. In the end, Biden retook the two rustbelt states from Trump.

With Michigan and Wisconsin under his belt, Biden increased his electoral votes to 253 and a shy away from 17 electoral votes to the 270-threshold. With this shift, Trump was in real trouble while the prospects of Biden considerably improved.

At this point, the race to the White House came down to the four battleground states of Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and Pennsylvania. Biden was ahead in Arizona and Nevada while Trump was leading in Georgia and Pennsylvania.

This is how things stand as of this writing.

Biden has multiple paths to the White House. To win, Biden needs only to win in one or two of the four remaining states, and he is president. If he wins Pennsylvania, giving Biden 273 electoral votes its game over. If Biden holds on to his lead in Arizona and Nevada, the White House is his. Biden can also be president by winning Georgia, paired with a win in either Arizona or Nevada. Even without Pennsylvania, Biden has paths to the presidency.  Which scenario will eventually play out remains to be seen.

Trump on the other hand is in a much difficult situation. To win a second term, Trump needs to win three of the four battleground states. Of the four, he cannot afford to lose Pennsylvania. He must win Pennsylvania and eke out a victory in at least two of the three other states to retain the presidency.

As the count trickles, the results do not bode well for Trump. The deluge of Biden votes reduced his over six hundred thousand lead in Pennsylvania to 26, 319. In Georgia, mail-in votes which heavily favor Democrat coming from the Democratic stronghold of Atlanta and surrounding areas greatly diminished Trump’s more than a hundred thousand lead to 1,775. Biden is on the verge of overtaking Trump in Georgia and Pennsylvania. This trend indicates where the wind is blowing in these crucial battleground states.

Of the four states, Arizona and Georgia are the surprises in this election. They are reliably Republican states. The last Democrat to win in these two states was Bill Clinton. In most US elections, these states are immediately counted on the Republican column.  Now they are battle-ground states with Democrats competitive there.

Sensing defeat, the Trump campaign filed a flurry of lawsuits in Michigan and Pennsylvania and plans similar action in Arizona and Nevada. As of this writing, Biden has 73,681,818 or 50.5 percent of the national votes to Trump’s 69,627,478 or 47.9 percent. In the popular vote, Biden is ahead of Trump by almost four million votes.

As this article goes print the winner in the 2020 US presidential election might be known already or is still too close to call. However, the situation looks grim for Donald Trump as the American people may have likely shown him the door. A new door on the other hand may have been opened to Joe Biden, that of the White House. It looks like dawn has finally come to America after four long years of darkness.