OCD Prepares for Stronger Kanlaon Eruption, 90K at Risk

The Office of Civil Defense is preparing for the possibility of a more destructive eruption of Mount Kanlaon, following its phreatic activity in recent months and a 4,000-meter ash plume on Tuesday.

OCD Administrator Undersecretary Ariel Nepomuceno said if the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology raises Kanlaon’s alert level to 4, an estimated 90,000 people may need to evacuate.

“Even I get overwhelmed with that,” Nepomuceno said during the Kapihan sa Manila Bay forum. “Not everyone will go to evacuation centers but presumably, around 40,000 plus might go to evacuation centers.”

He added that the rest would likely seek shelter with relatives or friends, and praised nearby towns for showing readiness to help in the spirit of bayanihan.

Nepomuceno said the OCD is closely monitoring Kanlaon’s activity in coordination with Phivolcs, which is assessing whether a more violent eruption could occur.

“We asked Phivolcs, will it erupt?” he said. “They said it could erupt violently. That’s dangerous, and we hope it doesn’t happen.”

A more benign scenario, he explained, could mirror the slow lava flow from Mount Mayon.

The third and least likely scenario is that Kanlaon remains quiet.

“I hope it doesn’t erupt,” Nepomuceno added. “That would be like a miracle.”

In the meantime, agencies have begun implementing precautionary measures across affected areas in Negros Island.

The Sugar Regulatory Administration has evacuated its research facility in La Granja, La Castellana, Negros Occidental due to heavy ashfall.

“We recently activated our SRA Disaster Response Team headed by SRA Board Member David Sanson and we are on alert, particularly ensuring the safety of our employees,” SRA Administrator Pablo Luis Azcona said.

“I ordered the evacuation of our research facility in La Granja with a skeleton crew left behind to secure the facility. All our vehicles are ready to deploy when requested by the LGUs,” he added.

The SRA is also assessing the potential impact on sugarcane plantations, with earlier eruptions reportedly triggering early maturity of sugar crops, possibly affecting yields.

“We have regrouped our disaster response teams and we are closely monitoring the situation in Mt. Kanlaon,” Sanson said. “We have relief supplies in place if and when needed and we have also allocated some PHP 4 million for other emergency supplies.”

The Department of Tourism has suspended all tourism activities near the volcano following Tuesday’s eruption, which sent ash 4,000 meters into the air.

The DOT advised travelers and tour operators to halt treks and visits to La Carlota City, Bago City, La Castellana, and nearby sites in Negros Occidental.

“Ashfall has been reported in various barangays, particularly within La Carlota City,” the agency said.

“Additionally, several municipalities in Negros Occidental, as well as parts of Guimaras and the provinces of Iloilo and Antique, are experiencing ashfall, with forecasts still in effect.”

The DOT also reminded the public that the 6-kilometer extended danger zone remains strictly off-limits, as enforced by the local government of Canlaon City.

“We advise tourists to postpone any travel plans to these locations and to adhere to the safety measures established by local authorities,” it added.

According to Phivolcs, Tuesday’s moderately explosive eruption began at 5:51 a.m. and lasted nearly an hour, with audible rumbling sounds reported by nearby residents.

Several areas in Negros Occidental experienced sulfuric fumes and potentially hazardous ashfall, prompting school closures and emergency protocols.

As of now, Phivolcs maintains an Alert Level 2 for Mount Kanlaon, indicating ongoing volcanic unrest.