Not On The Ballot

By Atty. James Jimenez

The 2025 National and Local Elections are closer than you might imagine. And at the center of it all is Vice President Sara Duterte. With issues hanging like storm clouds over her, including allegations of misuse of confidential funds, inflammatory public remarks, and potential violations of laws, including the Anti-Terrorism Act, it is no wonder that democracy observers feel that next year’s polls will be about her, despite her not being on the ballot at all.

Investigations and Allegations

It would not stretch the imagination to say that all this trouble began with the confidential funds. Apart from the admittedly unusual allocation of confidential funds to a department with no apparent ties to national security or law enforcement, Congress is also apparently bent on scrutinizing how those allocated funds were actually used.

However, pressed for transparency, the VP has taken the tack of apparently refusing to fully engage with the legislators, claiming that the probes are politically motivated. This has led to a lot of very public headbutting and a worsening rift between erstwhile political allies.

And then, there’s the VP’s penchant to speak her mind.

The VP is also under investigation for a viral video where she appears to have made threats against President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and others. Her political allies have attempted to walk back those statements, claiming that they were merely conditional – basically arguing that since she had apparently threatened violence only in the event that violence was done to her first, those statements should not be considered an “active threat.”

Despite these attempts to dilute their impact and gravity, those remarks have led to accusations that the VP has violated the Anti-Terrorism Act, with authorities considering them serious given the implications for national security. The VP, in the meantime, has claimed that these investigations are merely attempts to target her assets – citing other cases that were similarly prosecuted.

Inevitably, all these developments have served to fan anticipation of an impeachment complaint being filed against the VP. Although the President himself expressed his lack of interest in impeachment – mirroring former President Duterte’s own refusal to support impeachment moves against then VP Leni Robredo – it would appear that recourse to that constitutional mechanism has yet to be completely removed from the table.

Impact on the 2025 Elections

Despite not being on the ballot, the VP’s influence on the outcome of the 2025 elections seems clear.

First, it cannot be denied that the VP’s legal and political troubles are amplifying divisions within the ruling coalition. The VP’s public clashes with her former Uniteam running mate, and other prominent figures allied with the President could very well weaken the administration’s united front in the coming polls. Some, in fact, have said that such a front no longer exists, questioning the continued viability of the Marcos administration in the latter half of its term. Even now, things have gotten so far out of hand that there are currently crowds at a major shrine in Manila, openly agitating for the deposing of President Marcos, via an EDSA Kwatro.

Secondly, democracy observers, would be justified to worry more about the potential erosion of public trust in the institutions of government, particularly if accountability is perceived to be lacking or unenforceable, and how that might affect the outcome of the coming polls. As it is, there is already considerable disappointment in how the people’s elected representatives are perceived variously as a being unable to enforce the House’s mandate on the one hand, and as having an itchy contempt trigger finger, on the other.

Needless to say, with the entire House of Representatives being up for election in 2025, these perceptions will play a huge role in who gets to sit next. Will the voters support the actions taken by the incumbents? Or will the voters show their disapproval by voting the incumbents out?

The VP, in the meantime, retains significant clout – her populist rhetoric and perceived ‘authenticity’ resonating with vast swaths of the electorate, keeping her supporters confident of her political fortunes moving forward. The VP has claimed that the Presidency was ‘hers in 2022’ – it would be interesting to see if it remains in her grasp until 2028.

High stakes

The ongoing investigations and political disputes underscore the continuing domination of personality politics in the Philippines. She may not be on the ballot, but the political winds seem disproportionately responsive to the VP’s prompts.

Where does that leave the rest of us?

I say it leaves us with both a choice and a responsibility. Democracy observers should buck the trend that sees the 2025 elections as a mere contest of personalities. Instead, let us reaffirm our commitment to the bedrock principles of democracy, accountability, and the rule of law. We must rise above the noise of personality politics and focus on the issues that truly matter: transparency, good governance, and the integrity of our institutions.