Next Gen Leaders Under Pressure!

By Prof. Enrique N. Soriano

For more than a decade, many businesses operated under a comfortable assumption: disruption would unfold gradually. Economic cycles would remain manageable, trade relationships broadly stable, and geopolitical tensions contained within diplomatic channels.

That assumption is now fading.

Let me take you back to mid-2025. While transiting from Istanbul to Bahrain during a period when missile strikes were unfolding across parts of the Middle East, I was reminded how quickly geopolitical tensions can escalate beyond diplomatic headlines and become tangible economic risk. For business leaders operating across borders, these events are not abstract political developments. They influence energy markets, supply chains, capital flows, investor confidence—and ultimately the stability of entire industries.

In moments like these, the distance between geopolitics and business disappears.

At the start of 2026, W+B organized a webinar for CEOs and founders across the ASEAN region. Close to a hundred business leaders participated. In that discussion, I urged them to begin preparing for a period of heightened uncertainty. My message was straightforward: the global operating environment was shifting, and the traditional “business-as-usual” mindset would no longer be sufficient.

Several geopolitical flashpoints were already becoming visible. Tensions between China and Taiwan were escalating. The Middle East remained volatile. Strategic rivalry among major powers was beginning to reshape global supply chains and trade flows.

At the time, the warning may have sounded cautious – perhaps even overly conservative to some participants. After all, many enterprises had spent the previous years recovering from the pandemic and were eager to return to predictable growth.

But the signals were already there. Barely six weeks later, events would reinforce those concerns in far more dramatic fashion. The experience strengthened a conviction I had shared earlier in the year: the post-pandemic era has entered a fundamentally different phase. And 2026 may well become a litmus test for many enterprises.

Across the global economy, the warning signs are becoming increasingly difficult to ignore. Trade relationships are being recalibrated. Energy markets remain volatile. Capital is becoming more selective. Political decisions are influencing commercial outcomes in ways that few business leaders anticipated even a few years ago. The cumulative effect suggests that the next twelve months may present a far more demanding operating environment for businesses across industries.

For family enterprises—large and small—the implications are particularly significant. Unlike many publicly listed corporations that operate across multiple markets and industries, family businesses often carry higher concentration risks. Their supply chains may depend on specific trading partners. Their customer bases may be geographically concentrated. Their financing structures often rely heavily on relationship-based banking.

In stable environments, these characteristics can be strengths. Family enterprises tend to move faster, think in longer time horizons, and make decisions without the constant pressure of quarterly earnings expectations. In volatile environments, however, those same characteristics can expose vulnerabilities.

Boards across industries are already asking sharper questions:

What happens if credit conditions tighten further?

What if key export markets slow simultaneously?

What if geopolitical tensions disrupt shipping routes or supply flows?

Yet many organizations are still planning as though the coming years will resemble the previous decade.

That assumption may prove costly. The next phase of global competition will reward enterprises that demonstrate three capabilities: strategic foresight, disciplined capital allocation, and leadership capable of navigating uncertainty.

For family enterprises, the leadership dimension is particularly sensitive.

Across Asia and beyond, many of these businesses are currently undergoing generational transition. Founders are stepping back. Successors are stepping forward. Governance structures are evolving as enterprises move from founder-driven leadership toward institutional stewardship.

In stable environments, these transitions often unfold gradually. In turbulent environments, they are tested immediately.

Markets rarely give new leaders the luxury of a prolonged learning curve. When volatility rises, leadership readiness becomes visible very quickly.

For founders and family shareholders, the coming period may reveal something that stable years rarely do: whether the next generation is truly prepared to lead in a world that no longer behaves predictably.

Because when economic winds begin to shift, businesses do not rely on strategy alone.

They rely on leadership.

And leadership – both of founders and successors – is about to be tested.

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Professor Enrique M. Soriano will further explore next-generation leadership, governance discipline, and wealth preservation strategies for family enterprises in his Governance Masterclass, to be held at Vivere Hotel, Alabang, on March 28, 2026. Designed for founders, next-generation leaders, and family principals, the Masterclass will examine how governance frameworks, board accountability, and strategic succession planning can strengthen enterprise continuity across generations.

With limited seats remaining for family enterprises, interested participants are encouraged to secure their reservations early. For inquiries and reservations, please contact Christine at +63 917 324 7216.

In response to the strong interest generated by his recent governance briefing attended by over 120 business leaders, a re-run of the webinar, “Director Duties: What It Means in Practice in Family Enterprises,” has also been scheduled this week.