More Filipinos say Sara Duterte guilty after Acosta testimony

By Francis Allan L. Angelo

MANILA – The share of Filipinos who believe Vice President Sara Duterte is guilty of the impeachment charges rose from 34.3% to 36.3% between the weeks of Aug. 10 to 16 and Aug. 17 to 23, according to the second wave of Pulso Intelligence’s Weekly Impeachment Tracker.

Over the same period, the share saying she is not guilty fell from 48.5% to 46.2%.

The acquittal lead therefore narrowed from 14.2 points to 9.9, though a plurality of Filipinos continue to say the Vice President is not guilty.

During the Aug. 17 to 23 field window, witness Gina Acosta testified that confidential funds were released on the Vice President’s order and logged under aliases. In Mindanao, severe monsoon flooding was the dominant local story.

The survey, conducted by Pulso Intelligence Labs, Inc. among 1,684 respondents weighted to Commission on Elections 2025 registered-voter benchmarks, asked respondents to rate the Vice President’s guilt on a 1 to 5 scale, where 1 to 2 is not guilty, 3 is neutral, and 4 to 5 is guilty.

The question was worded identically in both waves. The mean rating rose from 2.73 to 2.79.

The neutral share was essentially unchanged at 17.6%.

The Acosta testimony

The Wave 2 field window coincided with the testimony of Acosta before the Senate impeachment court.

Acosta testified that confidential funds, reported at PHP 125 million and, in later testimony, up to PHP 500 million, were released on the Vice President’s order, with disbursements logged under aliases.

Prosecutors characterized the testimony as a “smoking gun.” According to Pulso Intelligence, the confidential-funds story led national news coverage throughout the field period.

The movement was concentrated among Filipinos paying the closest attention. Among respondents who follow the trial weekly, the guilty share rose 3.2 points week on week. Among daily followers it rose 1.2 points.

Among those who are not interested, hear about the trial only occasionally, or hear about it monthly, the increase was between 0.4 and 0.9 points.

Attention to the trial also increased during the week. The share of Filipinos who follow the trial weekly rose from 27.2% to 29.3%, and the share saying they are not interested fell from 5.6% to 4.4%. Daily following was broadly stable, moving from 20.4% to 19.8%.

Mindanao

Mindanao, the Vice President’s home region, remains the most acquittal-leaning part of the country by a wide margin.

In Wave 2, 75.9% of South Mindanao respondents and 70.7% of North Mindanao respondents said the Vice President is not guilty. The guilty share was 10.5% in South Mindanao and 10.2% in North Mindanao, the lowest in the survey.

Within that picture, South Mindanao recorded a 4.7-point rise in the guilty share between Wave 1 and Wave 2. This was among the larger regional movements of the week and occurred off the lowest base in the country. North Mindanao moved 0.9 points in the opposite direction.

Pulso Intelligence notes that severe monsoon flooding across parts of Mindanao was the dominant local news story in the region during the same period.

Regional swings

The largest regional swings toward guilty were in Central Luzon, at 7.1 points, and Metro Manila, at 5.7 points, both of which already had high guilty shares.

Metro Manila is the most conviction-leaning region in the country at 58.0% guilty, followed by South Luzon at 52.0%, North Luzon at 44.9%, and Central Luzon at 43.4%.

Guilty sentiment eased in West Visayas, down 4.0 points to 33.4%, and in North Luzon, down 3.8 points. East Visayas registered 24.7% guilty, up 1.6 points.

Who moved

Women are more likely than men to say the Vice President is guilty, at 40.6% against 31.9%. A majority of men, 50.3%, say not guilty.

By age, the guilty share is highest among respondents aged 51 and over, at 46.0%, and those aged 18 to 30, at 41.8%.

It is lowest among those aged 31 to 50, at 31.6%, a majority of whom, 52.2%, say not guilty.

The senator-judges

Filipinos’ ratings of the 21 senator-judges, also captured in Wave 2, will be reported in a separate release.

In the first wave of its Senator-Judge Scorecard, published Aug. 18 and fielded Aug. 15 to 16 among 1,500 Filipinos of legal age, Pulso Intelligence found the Senate’s three majority-bloc leaders occupying the bottom three places on the bench.

Senior Deputy Majority Leader Joseph Victor “JV” Ejercito scored 2.51 overall and ranked 19th of 21, Majority Leader Juan Miguel “Migz” Zubiri scored 2.48 and ranked 20th, and Deputy Majority Leader Joel Villanueva scored 2.44 and ranked last on a 1.00 to 3.00 sentiment scale.

Minority Leader Alan Peter Cayetano placed third at 2.85 and Deputy Minority Leader Imee Marcos ninth at 2.72. Francis “Chiz” Escudero led the bench at 2.92.

“The public isn’t grading these senators on three things. It’s grading them on one — and right now the men running the majority are at the bottom of that list,” Pulso Intelligence Labs, Inc. Chief Executive Officer Abraham Eleazar D. Quintos said in that report.

That wave placed acquittal sentiment at 49% against 34% for conviction, with 17% neutral.

The Pulso Intelligence Weekly Impeachment Tracker, Wave 2, was fielded Aug. 17 to 23, 2026, with 1,684 weighted respondents, 1,698 approved, an effective sample of 1,339.9, and a design effect of 1.257.

It is compared with Wave 1, fielded Aug. 10 to 16, 2026 on the same instrument.

Results are calibration-weighted to Commission on Elections 2025 registered-voter benchmarks on sex, age, and region. The guilt and trial-fairness questions used identical 1 to 5 wording in both waves.

Pulso Intelligence Labs, Inc. is an independent public opinion and market sentiment research firm and the research arm of Geronimo Law. The firm states that the survey was designed, conducted, and funded solely by Pulso Intelligence Labs, Inc., with no partisan group, candidate, political party, or commissioning interest influencing the survey or the reporting of its results.