Misnomers and missed shots

By Francis Allan L. Angelo

National security is a complex landscape that we either study them or just ignore them.

But the recent conflicting reports from the Philippine National Police (PNP) and the Philippine Army regarding alleged rebel recruitment in educational institutions in Panay raise significant concerns that we flout anymore.

On one side, the PNP, backed by statements from Senator Ronald “Bato” dela Rosa, claims that state colleges and universities are breeding grounds for New People’s Army (NPA) recruits.

On the other side, the Army, responsible for the very region in question, disputes these assertions, calling into question the reliability and intent behind such alarming declarations.

This discrepancy is not just a minor misunderstanding; it reflects a broader issue within the national defense and intelligence apparatus that includes both the Army and PNP through the Departments of Defense and of the Interior and Local Government.

It is safe to say that they share and read the same intelligence materials under the ambit of the National Security Council.

But when institutions tasked with national security deliver contradictory statements, it not only undermines public trust but also raises the question: What is the true extent of the threat, and are these statements driven more by the need for relevance than by factual accuracy?

ROUNDING ERROR

A friend, the number cruncher par excellence Bonnie Ladrido, noted some statistical mumbo jumbos in the issue.

The PNP’s claim during a Senate hearing that 168 students have been recruited by the NPA since 2014 is major point of contention.

When broken down, this figure amounts to an average of 16.8 students per year—a number that, statistically speaking, is insignificant considering the millions of students enrolled in the country’s educational institutions during this period.

To put this in perspective, the figure could be dismissed as a mere “rounding error” in a larger statistical analysis. Yet, this minor statistic is being elevated to the level of a national security threat.

Moreover, the figure of 168 allegedly represents only those students who were either killed, captured, or surrendered. This number does not account for those who may have voluntarily left the insurgency or abandoned the ideology entirely.

Thus, the actual number of recruits could be even lower, making the PNP’s alarmism appear even more questionable.

A REALITY CHECK?

In stark contrast, Major General Marion Sison, Division Commander of the Army’s 3rd Infantry Division based in Capiz, has categorically denied the occurrence of any significant NPA recruitment in Panay’s educational institutions.

According to Sison in a media forum on Augus 13, 2024, there have been no reports of such activities in institutions like West Visayas State University-Calinog Campus and Puti-an National High School—two schools specifically named by the PNP in the dela Rosa hearings.

The Army’s stance, supported by the lack of evidence and the clearance of these areas from rebel activities since 2019, highlights a critical disconnect between the PNP’s claims and the ground realities.

Sison’s assertion is bolstered by the proactive efforts of the military, in collaboration with the Regional Task Force to End Local Communist Armed Conflict (RTF-ELCAC), the National Intelligence Coordinating Agency, and the Department of Education.

These initiatives, which involve regular school visits and intelligence-gathering, have reportedly led to a significant reduction in NPA recruitment, particularly among students.

This is further evidenced by the dismantling of eight guerrilla fronts in the region, with only one weakened front remaining, according to the Army.

AMPLIFYING INSIGNIFICANT NUMBERS?

The role of individuals like a former activist-turned-state agent who sensationalize these minor figures, cannot be overlooked.

The agent, who cited the University of the Philippines Visayas (UPV) as an NPA recruitment center, appears to be inflating the significance of such claims to maintain relevance. This tactic of making a mountain out of a molehill not only endangers the safety and reputation of educational institutions but also distracts from more pressing national security concerns.

The UPV administration, led by Chancellor Clement C. Camposano, has rightly condemned the baseless generalizations.

By labeling UPV as a recruitment hub, this agent is not only jeopardizing the safety of students and staff but also undermining an institution that has long been a partner of the government in addressing environmental and social issues.

The Chancellor’s call to ignore unverified and dangerous statements made by figures like this agent should resonate across the board, particularly with policymakers and security agencies.

THE BROADER IMPLICATIONS OF ALARMISM

The conflicting reports between the PNP and the Army reveal a deeper issue within the national security framework.

When one branch of the security apparatus raises alarms about a supposed threat that another branch categorically denies, it suggests a lack of coordination and coherence that could have serious implications.

This dissonance not only confuses the public but also risks diverting resources and attention from genuine security threats.

Furthermore, the overemphasis on a statistically insignificant number of recruits raises the question of whether such claims are being used to justify continued military presence and interventions in academic institutions.

The entry of military personnel into schools has already been condemned as a form of militarization, which threatens academic freedom and creates an atmosphere of fear and distrust among students and faculty.

A CALL FOR COHERENCE AND RESPONSIBILITY

The issue of rebel recruitment in educational institutions is undoubtedly a serious concern, but it is crucial that any claims made are based on solid evidence and presented with a sense of responsibility.

The conflicting statements from the PNP and the Army highlight the need for a more coordinated and fact-based approach to national security. Sensationalism and alarmism only serve to undermine public trust and create unnecessary panic.

In short, the entire intelligence and defense apparatus should get their story straight to avoid being called misnomers dishing out missed shots.