Military ascendant

By Artchil B. Fernandez

The political landscape of the country was re-shaped last week by two apparently related events. Out of the blue, Du30 wrote Speaker Alan Peter Cayestano certifying as urgent the passage of Anti-Terrorism bill. Simultaneously, Foreign Affairs Teodoro Locsin Jr. sent a letter to the US Embassy informing the American government that Du30 ordered the suspension of the termination of the Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA). Why did Du30 prioritize the passage of an Anti-Terror bill over Bayanihan 2 bill which the country acutely needs to deal with the COVID-19 pandemic? Why fighting terrorist suddenly takes precedent over fighting the novel corona virus?

The 1^st regular session of the 18^th Congress ended last week when it adjourned sine die.  Congress had its hands full. It has to pass the Bayanihan 2 bill since Bayanihan 1 is set to expire once Congress adjourns. Bayanihan 2 bill contains a P140-billion economic stimulus package badly needed to restart the economy as the country grapples with the pandemic. Instead of passing Bayanihan 2 to deal with the damage of COVID-19, Du30 asked Congress to prioritize the Anti-Terror bill which the pliant body granted. Between catching terrorist and containing the COVID-19 virus, Du30 chose the former even if the latter is killing Filipinos everyday and crippling the economy.

Giving primacy to national security over health security is not just a matter of mispriority of the Du30 administration or Du30’s lack of concern on the loss of lives in the pandemic. It is symptom of the shift of the balance of power within the present administration.

Anti-Terrorism bill is a pet project of the military whose main concern is national security. For years, military officials have been pushing to amend if not replace the Human Security Act of 2007. The military establishment had been complaining that the law limits their action especially the clause that penalizes them 500,000 pesos per day if they commit mistake in arresting or prosecuting innocent people suspected of terrorism. It is one of the safeguards to prevent security forces from abusing the awesome power given to them.

Replacing the Human Security Act of 2007 with a new anti-terrorism law that removes the safeguards from abuses is a cherished dream of the military. Aside from changing the anti-terrorism law of the country, another major concern of the military is the abrogation of the VFA with the Unites States.

Last January, Du30 ordered the termination of the VFA over the cancellation of the US visa of the chief implementer of his bloody and gory war on illegal drugs. He viewed the cancellation of Bato de la Rosa’s visa an affront to his flagship project. In retaliation as well as in pursuit of his pro-China policy and to show to his masters in Beijing that he is a useful puppet, Du30 ordered the unilateral abrogation of the VFA.

One unintended consequence of Du30’s termination of the VFA is to give the Left and progressive organizations that have been aggressively campaigning for the scrapping of the VFA a significant victory. Handing these groups a rare triumph is a slap on the military. Aside from giving its traditional enemy a win, Du30’s act castrated the military.  The Philippine military is a creation of the United States and is heavily dependent on America for its war materials, intelligence, training, and hardware. The special relationship between the US and Philippine military has a long and storied history. In a single stroke most likely designed to please his masters in China, Du30 rendered the Philippine military an orphan by cutting the umbilical cord that ties it to its parent.

For some time, the military establishment suffered its humiliation in silence, but the COVID-19 pandemic provided it a golden opportunity. Du30’s incompetent, incoherent and lazy leadership is exposed by the pandemic as shown by his inability to deal with the most serious health crisis to hit the nation in recent memory. His trial and error approach in handling the pandemic exposed Du30’s colossal failure as a leader.

Du30’s uninspiring and divisive leadership stumbled as failure after failure characterized his management of the COVID-19 crisis. His ineffectual and inept leadership produced widespread dissatisfaction and discontent. The frustrated public vented their ire in social media. The digital world exploded in anger as infuriated Filipinos hammered Du30’s administration with sharp criticisms and strong censure.

Emerging from the 80-day lockdown without a roadmap and no comprehensive plan on how the country can survive the COVID-19 world, Du30 is anticipating intensified opposition to his rule and mass dissent. His only answer to the crisis is force and he badly needs the military to stem the rising tide of discontent to his incompetence. To survive politically Du30 has to rely more and more on the military and the police to prop up his sagging rule. Du30 has not choice but to give in and kowtow to the whim and interest of the military to secure their support.

The clearest sign that the military is ascendant in the administration is the twin move of Du30 to pass the anti-terrorism bill and suspend the termination of the VFA. The anti-terrorism bill is precious to the military while suspending the abrogation of the VFA removed a major irritant between Du30 and the military establishment.

This indicates that Du30 is now more than ever beholden to the military, in effect their hostage. Du30’s legacy dream of forging a long and lasting peace with communist insurgents is the main casualty of his shift to the right. With Du30’s dependency on the security forces to ensure his political survival, he has to give up his legacy dream which the military strongly opposes. It is not surprising that from overtures of peace talk and negotiation, Du30 is now hawkish more than ever, parroting the military line.

What happened to Du30’s claim in the early days of his administration that he is the first leftist president of the Philippines? Alas, it has been sacrificed in the altar of political expediency.