Marcos, opposition support surges as independents shrink — survey

By Francis Allan L. Angelo

Support for the Marcos and opposition camps rose sharply while the pro-Duterte bloc held its lead among political factions despite a gradual decline, according to the March 2026 national survey by nonpartisan public opinion research firm WR Numero.

The WR Numero Philippine Public Opinion Monitor, conducted from March 10 to 17 through face-to-face interviews with 1,455 Filipinos, found that about a third of respondents identify as supporters of the Duterte family and their allies, down by 1 percentage point from November 2025.

The survey was conducted after Vice President Sara Duterte’s announcement of her 2028 presidential bid and amid impeachment proceedings in the House of Representatives against her.

Filipinos who align with the Marcoses and their allies rose by 7 percentage points, climbing to 22% in March 2026 from 15% in November 2025.

The share of Filipinos siding with opposition figures Leni Robredo, Risa Hontiveros, and Bam Aquino jumped to 17%, up by 5 percentage points from 12% in November 2025.

Meanwhile, those who classify themselves as independents or do not align with any political faction fell sharply to 25%, a 14-percentage-point decline from the previous survey.

The rise in support for the pro-Marcos and opposition camps is largely linked to the shrinking of the independent bloc, according to WR Numero.

Regionally, the Marcos camp gained ground across all areas. Metro Manila and the rest of Luzon saw the most pronounced shifts, with Marcos supporters overtaking independents in both areas — rising from 16% to 30% in Metro Manila and from 22% to 29% in the rest of Luzon.

The upward trend extended to Duterte strongholds, with Marcos support climbing by 5.5 percentage points in the Visayas to 15% and by 5.3 percentage points in Mindanao to 9%.

The opposition’s growth in national support was driven by gains in the Visayas, where it rose sharply from 10% to 22%, and in the rest of Luzon, where it increased from 15% to 22%. However, the opposition saw slight declines in Metro Manila, falling to 16% from 19%, and in Mindanao, dipping to 3% from 4%.

The pro-Duterte bloc further consolidated its support in Metro Manila at 23% and Mindanao at 73%, logging gains of 3 and 4 percentage points, respectively. Duterte supporters continue to lead in the Visayas at 34%, although their share dipped slightly by 1 percentage point. The camp lost ground in the rest of Luzon, falling from 20% in November 2025 to 15% in March 2026.

Among the independent bloc, Metro Manila and the Visayas saw the sharpest drops at 28% each, down by 17 percentage points. The rest of Luzon followed at 29%, a 14-percentage-point decline, and Mindanao at 12%, an 11-percentage-point fall.

WR Numero also asked supporters of each faction about their alignment with other political camps.

The pro-Duterte bloc emerged as the most unified, with 65.9% identifying as solid Duterte supporters. Only 11% said they also back the opposition, 7.5% expressed affinity for the Marcoses, 7.6% were classified as soft Duterte, and 7.9% refused to answer.

Opposition supporters demonstrated similarly strong but slightly less consolidated loyalty. Over half, at 52.6%, said they exclusively support opposition figures. Around 23.2% were classified as soft opposition, 11.9% also sided with the Dutertes, 7.8% aligned with the Marcoses, and 4.5% refused to answer.

Support for the Marcoses appeared comparatively softer. Only 32.8% are solidly identified with the Marcos camp, while 23.3% also lean toward the Dutertes, 22.8% were classified as soft Marcos, 13.2% also embrace the opposition, and 7.9% refused to answer.

On questions regarding factional leanings, the sample comprised 32.7% Duterte supporters, 22.2% Marcos supporters, and 16.8% opposition supporters.

The survey carried a ±3% margin of error at a 95% confidence level nationally. At the subnational level, the margin of error is ±7% for the National Capital Region, ±4% for the rest of Luzon, ±6% for the Visayas, and ±6% for Mindanao, all at the same 95% confidence level.

The findings form part of the WR Numero Philippine Public Opinion Monitor, Volume 2026, Issue 9. The survey also covers voter preferences for the 2028 elections, public opinion on the Anti-Dynasty Bill, the impeachment proceedings against Vice President Duterte, and the detention and trial of former President Rodrigo Duterte at The Hague.