Marcos Jr’s coalition ripping apart on US-China lines

By Richard Javad Heydarian

“In the event of a clash between the US and China, the Philippines would become a cemetery”, warned former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte during the most recent episode of his weekly television show.

Renowned for his anti-Western tirades and pro-Chinese positions over his six-year term (2016-22), Duterte warned that his successor Ferdinand Marco Jr’s foreign policy, particularly his government’s enhanced defense cooperation with the United States, is imperiling the Philippines.

Duterte claimed that his Chinese contacts had recently expressed their grave concerns about the newly-expanded Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA), which grants the US Pentagon expanded access across various military bases close to the South China Sea as well as Taiwan.

According to Duterte, China’s envoy in Manila warned that if the defense pact enables “aggression against Beijing, [then] the Philippines would always be a target.”

Moreover, Duterte also wildly claimed, without providing any evidence, that the US is set to station nuclear weapons at Philippine bases, even though any such move would violate existing agreements between the two mutual defense treaty allies.

The ex-leader’s tirades reflect a growing rift within the Philippine political establishment as Marcos Jr adopts an increasingly tough stance on the South China Sea disputes with the presumed backing of traditional Western allies.

At the same time, the president is also recruiting West-friendly figures to top cabinet positions, including to the defense and potentially foreign affairs departments.

Deepening disagreements over foreign policy issues have been at the heart of recent public spats between establishment stalwarts, culminating in the recent abrupt demotion of former president Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo, another Beijing-friendly Filipino leader, in the governing coalition’s ranks and Vice President Sara Duterte’s recent resignation from the ruling party.

Both the Dutertes and Marcos Jr have repeatedly emphasized their commitment to a “UniTeam” lasting alliance, which was decisive in delivering last year’s resounding presidential election win.

Marcos Jr has consistently downplayed speculation about growing rifts with the powerful dynasty from the southern island of Mindanao, recently telling Sara Duterte “I’m still your number one fan.” For his part, the former president described his successor’s first year in office as “very good.”

But by all accounts foreign policy issues, particularly regarding how the Philippines positions itself between the two rival superpowers, are driving a wedge between the two powerful political families.

“By granting bases to America, we can be sure – and I am sure as the sun rises in the east – that these nuclear bases, which now increased to 17, will have nuclear warheads,” Duterte said in his recent television episode, emphasizing how it would be “pretty naive or [an act of] stupidity” to suppose Americans would not smuggle in nuclear weapons into EDCA sites.

“Nuclear bombs are far too different … I think, or I believe, not think, that the Philippines would be a graveyard if war comes,” he continued, effectively dismissing Marcos Jr’s reassurances against any “offensive” utilization of EDCA sites by visiting American forces.

The EDCA, negotiated shortly after the 2012 Scarborough Shoal crisis, bars Americans from both building permanent bases and prepositioning weapons of mass destruction on Philippine soil.

The defense pact only allows the Pentagon rotational, flexible and limited access to pre-designated sites and facilities based on mutual consent. But Duterte has nonetheless continued to parrot Beijing’s warnings in recent months.

Incensed by Marcos Jr’s expanding defense ties with the US, China has warned against “stoking the fire” of regional tensions. In April, Beijing even implied internal differences in the Philippines by claiming China’s misgiving about the EDCA is “shared by many in the Philippines”, likely referring to influential politicians like Duterte and his proxies.

One prominent Chinese scholar who works in a state-backed think tank also warned that the EDCA sites will “definitely…be used against China’s operations around Taiwan” and that “[t]he Philippines may be passive but involved in the Taiwan issue…That is a big thing for China.”

The schism over foreign policy, some analysts speculate, could culminate in the ruling coalition’s implosion. There are skeletons in the political closet. In the past, Duterte indirectly criticized Marcos Jr, then a prospective presidential candidate, as “spoiled” and a “weak leader.”

Last year, Dutetre, who chairs the Partido Demokratiko Pilipino-Lakas ng Bayan (PDP-Laban), also warned that he may lead a potential opposition to “fiscalizer” (check) his successor’s policies.

The prospects for a Duterte-led opposition gained further momentum earlier this year when former president Arroyo, who has also favored closer ties with China, was demoted from the senior ranks of the Philippine Congress, which is currently led by Marcos Jr’s first cousin, Martin Romualdez.

Shortly thereafter, Vice President Sara Duterte resigned from the ruling party, led by Romualdez, in a strongly worded protest against “execrable political powerplay” and “political toxicity.”

The episode was allegedly driven by suspicions that the former president was “plotting a coup” against the incumbent House Speaker, though many observers suspect that growing disagreements over foreign policy issues were the real driving factor.

Arroyo, who regularly accompanied Marcos Jr during major foreign visits, was reportedly increasingly vocal in her opposition to the incumbent’s Western-leaning foreign policy.

As a result, there is growing speculation about a potential Arroyo-Duterte twin ticket at the 2025 midterm elections, where Marcos Jr is expected to face pushback on his key policies, especially the EDCA.

Meanwhile, Marcos Jr has been bolstering his cabinet with trusted Western-friendly political figures. In that direction, the president recently appointed Gibo Teodoro Jr, a Harvard-trained lawyer and known Marcos ally, as his full-fledged defense secretary.

Two former generals served as temporary defense chiefs previously due to a one-year constitutional ban on the appointment of former election losers, including Teodoro Jr, who ran for the senate last year.

Upon returning to his old job, which he held during the late 2000s, Teodoro made it clear that the Philippines’ recent foreign policy pivot toward the West was purely defensive, namely a response to China’s growing assertiveness in the contested South China Sea.

“If other countries are sincere about having good relations with the Philippines they have to give us a modicum of trust, that we are responsible that we are not puppets of anyone and that we want the Philippines for the Filipinos,” Teodoro declared in a thinly-veiled rebuttal against Beijing’s criticism of Marcos Jr’s foreign policy.

“The president already said this many times. I already said this again and again that these are really for the defense of our country because a strong Philippines is a benefit for the world,” the new defense chief added,

Meanwhile, there is growing speculation that Marcos Jr is considering the appointment of a new foreign affairs secretary. One top candidate is the current Philippine Ambassador to the US, Jose “Babe” Romualdez, who also happens to be a first cousin of the president.

Throughout his half-decade as Manila’s top envoy to Washington, Romualdez was decisive in ensuring the Philippine-US alliance remained intact and robust despite the vicissitudes of both allies’ domestic politics.

The veteran ambassador has been the target of recent malicious attacks by pro-Beijing elements in the Philippines who fear a more robust Philippine-US defense alliance under a new foreign affairs chief.

Former interior and trade secretary, Manuel Araneta Roxas, a Wharton-trained technocrat who is related to First Lady Liza Araneta, has also been mentioned as a potential candidate for the top diplomatic position.

Back in 2012, Roxas, then as a top leader in the ruling Liberal Party, served as a special envoy to China, where he met and reportedly held constructive dialogue with then-incoming Chinese leader Xi Jinping.

“We had a frank and candid exchange of views and I am satisfied that I was able to faithfully convey President Aquino’s message,” Roxas said at the time following his meeting with Xi.

Although unlikely, his potential appointment as top diplomat would also have a major domestic political dimension by expanding the incumbent’s base by bringing in ex-stalwarts of the liberal opposition into his potentially fracturing ruling coalition.

Follow Richard Javad Heydarian on Twitter at @Richeydarian