La Niña predicted in last quarter of 2021 — PAGASA

By Francis Allan L. Angelo

The La Niña phenomenon may emerge in the last quarter of 2021 and will last until early 2022, according to the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA).

PAGASA Administrator Vicente Malano said forecasts by most climate models and expert judgements indicated a 70-80% chance of La Niña forming in the later part of this year.

La Niña refers to the large-scale cooling of surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, occurring every two to seven years, which causes heavy rainfall in affected areas.

Malano said rainfall forecasts also suggest a higher probability of above normal rainfall conditions in many areas of the country in the next several months.

This can be attributed to the expected stronger easterlies, enhanced northeast (NE) monsoon and tropical cyclone occurrences.

These factors increase the possibility of floods and landslides in the country.

“Furthermore, the eastern sections of the country which normally receive more rainfall during the last quarter of the year, could further increase the likelihood of more adverse impacts such as floods and landslides over highly vulnerable areas,” Malano said.

“With this scenario, all concerned agencies are advised to take precautionary measures to mitigate the potential adverse impacts of this looming La Niña,” he added.