Kanlaon Eruption Imminent, Evacuation Challenges Persist

By Dolly Yasa

BACOLOD CITY – The Office of Civil Defense (OCD)-6 Regional Director Raul Fernandez reiterated that an eruption of Kanlaon Volcano is imminent, despite evacuees clamoring to return home due to the stressful conditions in evacuation centers.

During a press conference at the Provincial Capitol’s Social Hall, Fernandez emphasized that a decrease in sulfur dioxide emissions from the volcano should be a cause for concern.

“If sulfur dioxide levels go down, it means magma is still rising inside the volcano,” he explained. “As long as volcanic earthquakes continue, rocks are breaking, and magma is moving upward.”

He added that the ongoing ash emissions indicate combustion inside the volcano.

Scenarios

Fernandez outlined three possible eruption scenarios:

1. Effusive Eruption: Magma flows freely without obstruction.
2. Explosive Eruption: Magma is blocked, leading to pressure buildup and a massive one-time eruption.
3. Pyroclastic Flow: Magma stagnates and eventually results in a deadly pyroclastic flow.

Fernandez described pyroclastic flow as the most dangerous scenario, highlighting its potential speed of 30 to 600 kilometers per hour.

“Who can outrun that speed?” he asked, stressing the catastrophic risk.

Kanlaon Volcano, the second-highest volcano in the Philippines, could surpass the devastation caused by Mount Pinatubo’s pyroclastic flow, which covered over 14 kilometers.

“For Kanlaon, the distance could be even greater,” Fernandez warned.

He added that all indicators point to an imminent eruption, stating, “It could happen anytime.”

Evacuation and Costs

Fernandez noted that 30,900 individuals are affected by the current situation, with monthly operational costs amounting to PHP295 million.

If Alert Level 4 is raised and the Permanent Danger Zone extends to 10 kilometers, operational costs could surge to PHP15 billion monthly.

Currently, 4,128 families (13,454 individuals) are staying in 34 evacuation centers, while 2,351 families (7,458 individuals) have sought refuge outside these centers, according to OCD reports.

Relocation Discussions

Negros Occidental Governor Eugenio Jose Lacson met with mayors of local government units (LGUs) surrounding Kanlaon Volcano to discuss potential relocations for residents within the Permanent Danger Zone.

“If LGUs can provide the land, the provincial government will assist in relocating affected families,” Lacson said.

Fernandez stressed that OCD can only recommend actions, leaving LGUs to make final decisions.

“We aim to create a manageable situation and understand the stress evacuees face in these centers,” he said. “Alert Level 3 is still in effect, and the volcano can erupt at any time.”

Fernandez urged preparedness, emphasizing the importance of mitigating risks while supporting displaced individuals.