Kadiliman Surging, Kasamaan Fracturing, and Pinklawan In-Between

By Artchil B. Fernandez

The 2025 election has reached a critical phase, the homestretch. With two weeks left before Election Day, the political landscape remains volatile and fickle. An interesting political configuration is emerging in light of recent political developments, particularly the arrest and handover of the Duterte patriarch to the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague.

Pulse Asia’s latest survey, conducted from March 23–29, 2025, yielded interesting results. The administration coalition, Alyansa para sa Bagong Pilipinas, still dominates the race with 8 of its candidates making it to the winning 12. This is not news. The most intriguing aspect of the survey is the surge of candidates backed by the Dutertes. Is this a “green wave” in the making?

Bong Go, the most prominent acolyte of former President Duterte, seized the top spot long held by administration bet Erwin Tulfo. Go led the pack of senatorial aspirants with 61.9 percent, while Erwin Tulfo had 51.1 percent, a 10-point decline from his previous number. Bato de la Rosa, the architect of the elder Duterte’s brutal and bloody war on drugs, gained 4 percent, now in third place with 48.7 percent.

It is not only the two incumbent senators who are Duterte stalwarts who considerably improved their poll standing but other candidates supported by House Duterte. Former action star and Duterte loyalist Phillip Salvador gained a 12.5-percentage point increase, from 18.4 percent to 30.9 percent. Joining Salvador among “probable winners” is Rodante Marcoleta, another Duterte devotee who also had a 12.0-percentage point rise, from 16.1 percent to 28.3 percent. Another Duterte enthusiast, singer Jimmy Bondoc, though outside the “probable winners,” also substantially rose in the survey, from 4.6 percent to 20.4 percent.

The Duterte camp is elated by the survey results. Pundits call the surge a “Duterte bump.” Candidates supported by the Dutertes are enjoying a surge of “sympathy votes” generated by the arrest and detention of the former president. The “Duterte bump” is real, but the crucial question is, “Can the surge be sustained until May 12?” Is the surge enough to overcome the administration’s dominance?

Pulse Asia President Ronnie Holmes does not see the “Duterte bump” as a huge “green wave” but as the awakening of dormant Duterte supporters who were outraged by the detention of the former president in The Hague. There is no massive conversion of pro-Marcos or undecided voters, Holmes contends.

Political analyst Joey Salgado interprets the surge as a consolidation of Duterte votes rather than its expansion. “Most voters have swung to the undecided column,” Salgado asserts. In Salgado’s reading of the survey results, “the bump was not enough to dislodge the front-running administration candidates.”

While Team Kadiliman is having a surge, Team Kasamaan, on the other hand, is fracturing. Two of its candidates, who incidentally are also among the most vulnerable bets of the ruling coalition, broke away from the administration. The most prominent and controversial break is that of presidential sister Imee Marcos.

After months of vacillation and double-play, Imee Marcos finally made her position clear – she stands by the political nemesis of her brother, Vice President Sara Duterte. The two came out together in a new black-themed campaign ad. They lamented the sorry state of the nation. “Black is the color of the nation today. It mourns in hunger and crime. The stomach is hungry, and so is the thirst for justice. Those who are not allies are being oppressed,” they intoned, hitting the current administration.

Camille Villar also received the backing of Sara Duterte. They also appeared in a new campaign ad doing a Duterte fist bump. “In this day and age, we need true friends. Those who care about the country, those who help the poor. With Camille Villar, I am confident. There is a bright future ahead,” the vice president declared.

Unlike Imee Marcos, Camille Villar has not officially left the administration alliance. But Villar’s two-river rowing is political opportunism and desperation of the highest degree. The administration is trying to elect as many senators who will convict Sara Duterte. Camille Villar is certainly not one of them.

Imee Marcos and Camille Villar siding with Sara Duterte is a clear sign the Alyansa para sa Bagong Pilipinas coalition of the administration has fractured.

Meanwhile, the pinklawans are in-between, neither surging nor fracturing. The poll numbers of Francis Pangilinan and Bam Aquino remain steady. Both are going in and out of the magic 12, always in the periphery of the winning circle. They are constantly considered among the “probable winners.” In some surveys, their poll numbers have an upward trajectory. Again, the critical question is, “Will their numbers further improve and is the improvement enough to squeeze them through?”

As the election campaign enters the final stage, the race to the magic 12 is tightening. As things currently stand, the administration is on track to win 7 to 8 Senate seats. The Duterte bloc can snag 2 or 3 slots, while the pinklawans have a chance to win 1 or 2 Senate posts. An independent candidate as of now is a sure winner, while another has a chance to be senator. In a very competitive contest, it will be a “battle to the death” among those ranked 7 to 15 in the surveys.

With a few percentage points separating the lower-ranked senatorial candidates who have a chance to win, local alliances with warlords, political bosses, vote hoarders, and bloc-vote keepers will make the difference.

Can Team Kadiliman maintain its surge? Will Team Kasamaan arrest its rupture? Have the pinklawans ended their wandering in the political wilderness? The outcome of the Senate race will answer these enticing questions.