June Inflation at 1.4%, Rice Prices Hit Historic Low

Headline inflation rose slightly to 1.4 percent in June 2025, up from 1.3 percent in May, staying within the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ forecast range of 1.1 to 1.9 percent.

This keeps the year-to-date inflation at 1.8 percent, still below the government’s 2 to 4 percent target range.

Food inflation slowed to just 0.1 percent in June, offering welcome relief for households, especially low-income families.

The easing in food prices was driven by lower costs of vegetables, corn, sugar, and particularly rice, which saw a 14.3 percent year-on-year drop—the sharpest decline since 1995.

This marks a significant improvement from the 22.5 percent surge in rice inflation during the same period last year, and even sharper than the -12.8 percent in May 2025.

The decline in domestic rice prices was attributed to improved local production, easing global prices, and sustained government interventions.

Programs like “Benteng Bigas, Meron Na!” have helped make affordable rice more accessible to low-income households and overseas Filipino workers.

Under this initiative, PHP 43/kg rice will be available nationwide beginning July 16, alongside a PHP 29/kg rice program through the National Irrigation Administration and local government units.

These efforts also aim to boost demand for locally produced rice while ensuring fair prices for Filipino farmers.

Non-food inflation, however, increased due to higher costs in housing, water, electricity, gas, and other fuels.

Month-on-month, seasonally adjusted inflation was steady at 0.2 percent, while core inflation remained unchanged at 2.2 percent year-on-year for the fourth consecutive month.

The core inflation figure strips out volatile food and energy prices, making it a more stable indicator of long-term inflation trends.

For the bottom 30 percent of income households, inflation in June was -0.4 percent, signaling real deflation and a tangible reprieve for the country’s most vulnerable groups.

“This is good news for everyone,” said Finance Secretary Ralph G. Recto.

“It means government measures are effective in keeping prices low and affordable, especially for those who need it most. But we know that hunger still exists, so we will intensify our efforts to lift every Filipino family out of poverty,” Recto added.

Looking ahead, inflation is expected to fall below target in 2025 before returning within range in the next two years, though external risks—such as geopolitical tensions and global policy shifts—could influence trends.

To address future price pressures, the government is ramping up agricultural investments, including a PHP 27.7-billion farm-to-market bridge program and tighter anti-smuggling measures under the Anti-Agricultural Economic Sabotage Act.

The Kadiwa ng Bagong Bayaning Mangingisda program is also expanding to support fisherfolk and maintain stable seafood supplies.

In the event of a global fuel price shock, the government said it stands ready to deploy targeted fuel subsidies for sectors most affected.