It’s raining – but Iloilo City could run dry by December

By Rjay Zuriaga Castor

Iloilo City disaster officials are urging the public to prepare for simultaneous threats from the habagat, or southwest monsoon, and an El Niño event that could drive dry conditions well into 2027.

The Iloilo City Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Office (CDRRMO) warned residents not to be complacent, citing shifting weather patterns that could bring both extreme rainfall and prolonged dry spells.

CDRRMO Resident Meteorologist Rio Beth Sinon said communities must prepare for both extreme rainfall events and potential long-term water scarcity.

Sinon drew a distinction between the two concurrent weather phenomena, noting that El Niño is a long-cycle climate event while the habagat is an annual seasonal wind pattern.

“El Niño is a long-term climate phenomenon, which means it has a longer cycle compared to the Southwest Monsoon. The monsoon is a wind pattern that brings rain to us every year,” she said.

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) declared the onset of the habagat on May 30 and the start of the rainy season on June 4. An El Niño Alert was issued on April 22 and may persist until early 2027.

PAGASA estimates an 82 percent chance of an El Niño event developing between May and July.

Sinon said Western Visayas may experience near-normal rainfall from June to September due to the monsoon, but warned that dry conditions may emerge later in the year as El Niño intensifies.

She noted that Iloilo City is currently under a dry spell condition — defined as two consecutive months of below-normal rainfall — based on figures recorded in previous months.

Despite this, the impact of drought and dry conditions is expected to be limited from June to November due to monsoon rains and localized thunderstorms.

By December, however, the region may again face dry conditions as El Niño peaks.

Darwin Joemil Papa, head of the CDRRMO Disaster Response Division, cautioned that while El Niño is often associated with extreme heat, it can also influence storm intensity.

“During El Niño, the ocean becomes warmer, and that heat can help fuel typhoons,” Papa said.

Papa said the convergence of El Niño and the habagat requires heightened vigilance, as stronger tropical cyclones may develop and intensify rainfall.

“There is an overlap. We are experiencing the effects of El Niño plus the habagat enters. We will be expecting rain and worst, if there is a weather disturbance, it will be a very strong tropical cyclone,” he said.

He added that while typhoons during the habagat season may not directly make landfall in Western Visayas, they can still enhance monsoon rains and affect the region.

Papa further explained that once the habagat weakens in the latter part of the year, rainfall will decrease, giving way to hotter temperatures and dry conditions.

He urged the public to avoid complacency despite the current rainy season and to begin conserving water early.

“Our warning to the public is not to be complacent just because we are experiencing rain from May to August. We should start saving water now because by September, November, or December, we may start experiencing difficulty in water supply. By August, the Habagat is expected to weaken, and there is a possibility that severe heat will follow,” he said.