Interdependence is the new independence

For generations, discussions surrounding the West Philippine Sea have felt like a luxury reserved for academic boardrooms in Manila or elite diplomatic circles. We argued over the nuances of maritime law while our fisherfolk quietly bore the brunt of harassment at sea. But the latest numbers have completely flipped that script. When 86% of Filipinos say they want the government to form alliances with like-minded nations to defend our sovereignty, it is no longer just a policy debate — it is a grassroots mandate.

Look closely at the data. It wasn’t the intellectual elite leading the charge; it was the country’s most vulnerable economic demographic. Support for partnering with the United States was highest among Class E respondents at 86%. This makes perfect sense when you step away from the abstract theories of international relations. For the working class, sovereignty is an economic survival issue. Coral reef destruction and restricted access to traditional fishing grounds hit their tables first, adding weight to estimates of over PHP 33.1 billion in annual ecological losses.

Yet, we cannot ignore the very valid anxieties raised by skeptics who argue that welcoming foreign military assets back onto our soil is a gamble with our independence. It is a fair warning. When critics caution that expanding EDCA sites paints a bullseye on our communities — effectively positioning the country as a forward operating base for someone else’s conflict — they are tapping into a deep-seated historical trauma. We’ve been a colonial pawn before, and no sensible Filipino wants to be collateral damage in a Washington-Beijing showdown over Taiwan. Memory runs deep here; after all, we spent decades trying to untangle ourselves from the shadow of permanent US bases after the historic 1991 Senate vote.

But here is where the argument of the isolationist falls short in the 21st century: doing nothing is also a choice, and it carries an even higher price tag.

Choosing isolation under the guise of “pure sovereignty” doesn’t actually buy us safety; it merely leaves us isolated in the path of gray-zone coercion. The public seems to intuitively understand this. The era of strategic ambiguity is dead because Filipinos see that public patience for diplomatic appeasement has dried up. The rising year-on-year support for partners like the United States (84%) and Japan (67%) isn’t an invitation for foreign dependency — it is a calculated, pragmatic directive to build a collective shield.

The solution lies not in blind reliance, but in strict conditionality. To ensure our independence isn’t compromised, Manila must retain absolute control over how these alliance assets are deployed, keeping them firmly anchored to our defensive maritime borders rather than offensive regional maneuvers. To back this up, our own domestic investment must match international cooperation. The government’s push for a PHP 305.5 billion defense budget proves that alliances should complement our self-reliance, not replace it.

Creating this seamless national strategy will require addressing internal complexities — what you might call the Mindanao Paradox. On one hand, Mindanao posted the country’s highest enthusiasm for alliances at 91%. On the other hand, 23% of those same respondents still suggested working with Beijing to defend the very waters Beijing is encroaching upon. This apparent contradiction reflects the deep, enduring shadow of prominent regional political families who have long preached alternative alignments. If we are to present a truly unified front, Manila must engage with these regional anxieties rather than dismiss them, ensuring a single national narrative that can’t be fractured by outside influence.

As we approach the 128th anniversary of our independence and mark a decade since the 2016 Hague arbitral victory, we need to redefine what freedom actually looks like. True independence is not isolationism. It is not an insistence on an outdated version of neutrality that leaves you exposed. True sovereignty means having the agency to choose your friends on your own terms. By leveraging the 2016 ruling as a living shield and leaning into a mature, conditional interdependence, the Philippines isn’t compromising its liberty — it is exercising it.