Increased COVID risk detected in 2 cities, 4 provinces in WV

By Joseph B.A. Marzan

The rapid increase in new coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases in the 2 highly-urbanized cities and 4 provinces, as well as swelling medical admissions, escalated Region 6’s risk rating, according to data from the Department of Health-Western Visayas Center for Health Development (DOH-WV CHD) on Monday.

DOH-WV CHD Medical Officer V Dr. Bea Camille Fillaro-Natalaray presented the region’s COVID-19 situation as of May 30, 2021 during the regional office’s online series “Isyung Bakuna” on Monday.

Western Visayas now has 46,513 COVID-19 cases as of May 30, comprised of 7,270 active cases (15.63 percent active case rate), 38,101 recoveries (81.91 percent recovery rate), and 1,126 deaths (2.42 percent case fatality rate).

The daily average of new cases drastically increased to 371 cases per day, up from 261 in April, which makes it the new record peak in daily tallies.

The total tally includes 60.9 percent asymptomatic, 34.4 percent mild, and 4.65 percent that are either moderate, severe, or critical.

The region’s positivity rate also increased to 6.9 percent as of May 30, up from 6.7 percent on May 23, with 48,854 positive results out of 704,399 individuals tested.

Natalaray said there have been no reports yet of any new COVID-19 variants in the region, but samples are being sent to the Philippine Genome Center at the University of the Philippines in Diliman, Quezon City for verification.

“We continue our surveillance, and if in case there is a clustering of cases in certain areas, our laboratories send samples to the Philippine Genome Center to determine if there are [COVID-19] variants existing in those areas,” Natalaray said.

The Health Care Utilization Rate (HCUR), which refers to the utilization of beds and mechanical ventilators for COVID-19 patients, also increased to 56.65 percent from 51.42 percent on May 23.

The data indicated that 102 of 138 Intensive Care Unit (ICU) beds (73.91 percent) are now occupied, 649 of 1,142 isolation beds (56.83 percent), 255 of 442 COVID ward beds (57.69 percent), and 32 of 101 mechanical ventilators (31.68 percent).

The admitted patients include 373 critical cases (51 percent), 181 mild or moderate cases (25 percent), 150 asymptomatic (20 percent), and 31 severe cases (4 percent).

Based on the HCUR, the 2-Week Growth Rate (2WGR), and the Average Daily Attack Rate, the region is currently in the “Moderate” risk column.

Western Visayas’ 2WGR (which is the rate of growth in COVID-19 cases over a 2-week period) is up to 7 percent in the recent 2 weeks from 3.59 percent in the past 3 to 4 weeks.

The ADAR (which refers to the number of cases in an area over a 2-week period per 100,000 population over the total population) rose to 4.30 in the past 2 weeks from the previous 4.00.

 

RISK LEVELS 

The HCUR, 2WGR, and ADAR are taken into consideration when determining the community quarantine status and health response measures by national and local authorities.

Broken down by province and based on the three factors, the cities of Bacolod and Iloilo are classified as “High” risk, the provinces of Antique, Capiz, Guimaras, and Iloilo are “Moderate”, and Aklan and Negros Occidental are in the “Low” column.

Comparing the levels between the DOH-WV CHD’s reports as of May 23 and May 30, Iloilo City remained “High”, while Bacolod City went up to “High” from “Moderate”, and Capiz and Antique wend up to “Moderate” from “Low”.

Meanwhile, Guimaras moved down to “Moderate” from “High”, Iloilo province remained in the ‘Moderate’ column, Aklan moved down to “Low” from “Moderate”, and Negros Occidental remained on “Low”.

Bacolod City’s classification may be attributed to its increased 2WGR (11 percent from -6.04 percent) and ADAR (10.98 from 9.85), while its HCUR went down to 50.28 percent from 55.71 percent.

Iloilo City’s consistency in the High-Risk classification was due to its ADAR (14.11 from 8.68) and HCUR (81.68 percent from 78.63 percent) increasing, but its 2WGR decreased (63 percent from 138.52 percent).

The regional center’s HCUR is almost entirely in the red, with 55 of 57 ICU beds (96.49 percent) occupied, 86 of 95 COVID ward beds (90.53 percent), and 121 of 148 isolation beds (81.76 percent).

Mechanical ventilator utilization remains relatively low with 10 of 33 used (30.30 percent).

Natalaray said that the growth in Iloilo City’s cases was “natural”, citing that the city conducted mass testing on city hall employees and their close contacts.

She added that its current Modified Enhanced Community Quarantine (MECQ) status, coupled with the testing, could expectedly result in lowering of cases in the city.

“Since there have been many tested, with Iloilo City conducting testing with their employees and close contacts, it is expected that there are many positive cases [especially] asymptomatic cases which will be detected. Hopefully, after two weeks that movement of people in Iloilo City has been limited, we could see the difference in our cases,” she said.

Guimaras, which was considered High Risk as of May 23, moved down to the Moderate column due to the decrease in 2WGR (38 percent from 346.15 percent) although there were spikes in its ADAR (3.06 from 2.22) and HCUR (90.91 percent from 27.27 percent).

Looking closer at its HCUR, the island province’s increase in risk level could be attributed to the fact that it only has 11 beds, 10 of which are occupied, and no mechanical ventilators.

Capiz’s risk uptick was due to its ADAR (3.98 from 3.73) and HCUR (73.68 percent from 46.62 percent), despite its 2WGR decreasing (7 percent from 51.97 percent).

Its high HCUR is attributed to critical occupation levels in its COVID ward beds (45 of 46 or 97.83 percent) and ICU beds (7 of 8 or 87.50 percent), and moderate level in isolation beds (45 of 70 or 64.29 percent). Its mechanical ventilation utilization remained low (1 of 9 or 11.11 percent).

Antique experienced increases in its 2WGR (27 percent from -17.84 percent), ADAR (2.58 from 2.02), and HCUR (61.48 percent from 56.35).

The province only has 2 ICU beds which were fully utilized (100 percent), and 76 of 112 isolation beds also filled up (67.86 percent). Its COVID ward beds (5 of 18 or 27.78 percent) are in the green while none of its 3 mechanical ventilators are used as of May 30.

Despite remaining in the Moderate column, Iloilo province also experienced increases in its ADAR (3.05 from 1.86) and HCUR (50.79 percent from 34.40 percent), while its 2WGR decreased (64 percent from 86.51 percent).

Aklan moved down to the Low-risk column due to decreases in its 2WGR (-34 percent from 108.95 percent) and ADAR (3.06 from 4.64), although its HCUR increased (32.81 percent from 22.66 percent).

Negros Occidental remained steady at “Low” because of decreases in its ADAR (2.88 from 4.06) and HCUR (43.14 percent from 49.15 percent), with only a slight increase in its 2WGR (-29 percent from -33.27 percent).

Natalaray reminded the public to continue the practice of minimum public health standards, as well as for local government units (LGUs) to continue their Prevention, Detection, Isolation, Treatment, and Reintegration (PDITR) strategies.

“As our cases are increasing, comparing our average daily cases from the previous month, it has become higher this May 2021, that is why we are emphasizing the practice of minimum public health standards in our communities and homes, and for our [LGUs] to continue their [PDITR] strategies,” she said.