In-Depth Year V: Oklahoma vs Indiana NBA Finals Breakdown

By Leobert Julian A. de la Peña

It’s that time of the year again.

As the leather rolls near to the end line, the last two standing franchises in the NBA are set to duke it out for the Larry O’Brien trophy when the NBA Finals tips off tomorrow, June 6, 2025.

After almost a year since the Boston Celtics won the championship title against the Dallas Mavericks, another grand finals saga is yet to unfold in this year’s season of the big boys’ league.

For the fifth time, fifth year, and fifth publication, this is your resident sportswriter and analyst, Leobert Julian A. de la Peña, and this is, the fifth edition of the Daily Guardian’s yearly NBA Finals breakdown.

Two interesting storylines indeed. The Indiana Pacers reached their first NBA Finals in 25 years, while the Oklahoma City Thunder ended their 13-year trip drought to the last stage of the season.

After a series of ridiculous come-from-behind playoff comeback wins that led them to this point, the Pacers are looking to achieve what Reggie Miller and the past Indiana finals team failed to do.

On the other hand, the Thunder really embodied the true essence of trusting the process. After several years of disappointing NBA regular season campaigns, Oklahoma finally put the perfect pieces together, steering them to a grand finals appearance in 2012.

One thing is for sure ahead of this NBA Finals clash.

This would be a unique and exciting matchup.

A team that thrives on their pesky and swarming defense going up against a high-octane and well-oiled machine from the Eastern Conference.

Before I formally tackle my key points, let me present a rundown of what transpired during their two meetings in the regular season:

• Oklahoma won all matchups, 120-114, 132-111.
• Despite the loss, Indiana out-rebounded Oklahoma during their first meeting, 51-45, and out-assisted them, 28-20.
• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was unstoppable, as the newly crowned Most Valuable Player dropped 45 points, eight assists, and seven rebounds.
• The second meeting was a merciless affair for the Thunder, blowing out Indiana by 21 points behind another SGA offensive masterclass.
• What made the difference in the second encounter was how Oklahoma dumped the ball inside the shaded lane, outscoring Indiana, 58-40, in points in the paint.
• In all those OKC wins, the Thunder always had the upper hand in the steals department, a testament as to why they are one of the most disciplined defensive teams in the league.

Although these regular season matchups will no longer have that much impact due to the adjustments that both teams made during the playoffs, clear indicators showed that Oklahoma’s ball pressure affected the Pacers’ sets. On the other hand, Indiana proved that despite the tight defense deployed against them, they can still drop more than 110 points every single night.

So what do these stats tell us?

This 2025 NBA Finals will boil down to this. HOW CAN INDIANA’S HIGH-OCTANE OFFENSE FARE WELL AGAINST OKLAHOMA’S DEFENSE?

To begin with, I’ll present the strengths of the Pacers that can help them match up against their Western Conference rivals.

INDIANA’S STRENGTHS:

• They thrive on efficient offense.

– In the ongoing playoffs, the Pacers shot an efficient 57.6% from the field, the second-best shooting percentage by any conference champion.

• Indiana executes a unique offensive style, specifically using modified off-ball movements.

– From the first round until the conference finals, the Milwaukee Bucks, Cleveland Cavaliers, and the New York Knicks failed to decipher what exact defensive scheme can slow down the Pacers. To keep the opponents guessing, Indiana executes multiple enhanced off-ball movements. One key thing about this is how they replace the man in the zone with a quick “fill”. For example, when the flare screen action fails, the screener fills the gap of the uncovered area, the main reason why the Pacers always had extended options to operate. Indiana isn’t a stagnant team, so when a player gets out of his spot, the player from the wing or the opposite elbow fills that gap, giving Tyrese Haliburton plenty of options where to throw the swing pass.

• The relentless push of transition attacks.

– It has been evident that the Pacers’ ridiculous pace made it difficult for the Eastern Conference contenders to keep up with them. Every time they had the chance, they stepped on the gas pedal. Even from a made basket, they push. This type of offense is the first that the Thunder will see this playoffs, as the Western Conference kings faced two half-court oriented teams in the semifinals and the conference finals, the Denver Nuggets and the Minnesota Timberwolves, respectively. This mayhem attack might catch OKC off guard, if they have no answer or exhaustion will be an issue.

• Using the art of the flare screen.

– Flare screens are common in the modern NBA, but the Pacers utilize them to create multiple offensive options, especially in the elbows. During the conference finals against the Knicks, Indiana set plenty of flare screens to free up their shooters in both elbows. If the flare screen didn’t work, either Obi Toppin or Myles Turner dove to the corner or at the top of the key, for a wide-open three-pointer. This particular action is a light at the end of the tunnel for the Pacers as Oklahoma gives up a lot of corner three-pointers, particularly in their series against Minnesota where they nearly lost Game 1 due to the Timberwolves’ open looks from the corner.

• The bench mob that plays like a starting unit.

– Indiana’s philosophy is always we, not I. to pull off back-to-back stunning series wins against the Cavaliers and the Knicks, Indiana head coach Rick Carlisle had to get the best out of his players. Players like Toppin, TJ McConnell, Bennedict Mathurin, Ben Sheppard, Thomas Bryant, and Jarace Walker perk up the Pacers’ second unit. Unfazed, playing every game without pressure, these bench players are all you need if you want to make a run for your money.

• The genius of Haliburton, and the trickiness of the Pascal Siakam matchup.

– Tyrese Haliburton showed that he is not the league’s most overrated player. Clutch, multi-dimensional, and a maestro inside the hardwood, the Thunder will have a different challenge going up against a floor general with such a high IQ. In the first round, Oklahoma faced a Ja Morant-less team, as the athletic point guard received an injury, a major factor for the 4-0 sweep loss. Come the second round, they went up against Jamal Murray, an elite backcourt but focused more on his offense and two-man game involving Nikola Jokic. The conference finals wasn’t point guard heavy, as Anthony Edwards dominantly held the ball too long more than Mike Conley. This NBA Finals stage is an opportunity for Haliburton to prove himself more, whether it is involving his teammates or taking matters into his own hands. Moving on, Pascal Siakam, a six-foot-eight freak who possesses insane versatility on both ends of the floor, is like going up against Julius Randle and Naz Reid, but from a different perspective. Oklahoma went up against these two mobile frontcourt personnel in the conference finals, but they have yet to encounter a power forward who moves well without the ball and is keen on finding mismatches. Siakam won the Eastern Conference Finals MVP, and that award wouldn’t be possible without his two-way dominance in the six-game series. Siakam was a handful from the first round, and that might also repeat if he exposes the undersized Jaylen Williams who plays the four-spot for the Thunder. It might lead to a front court reshuffle in the rotation for Mark Daigneault, I guess.

Now that I’ve presented the strengths and the keys to wins for the Pacers, let us move on to the Western Conference kings, the Oklahoma City Thunder.

OKLAHOMA’S STRENGTHS:

• Defense.

-Seemed like a general basketball terminology to use, but defense alone makes Oklahoma an invincible team in the playoffs. The Western Conference champs lead the league in opponent turnover rate, and tallied a total of 55 steals in their five-game conference finals series against the Timberwolves. That’s the best defensive output recorded in a series in the past 10 years. That’s just ridiculous. The way they play defense is disciplined, including their help at the weak side when the ball handler happened to get past their first line of defense.

• Insane ball pressure and full-court pick up.

– For the first time in the playoffs, Haliburton and the rest of the Pacers will be facing a team that pressures ball handlers from 70 feet. They weren’t used to this, except when Mikal Bridges decided to shadow him in the last three games of the conference finals. For sure, the Thunder will look to pick up Haliburton as soon as he gets the ball, and matchups will not be easy as Lugentz Dort and Alex Caruso, two of the most feared defensive backcourts in the league, will be handed the assignment. Tendency is, if Haliburton will get pressured, Indiana’s sets will have a tweak, and might get broken down if they don’t put multiple screens to free him up. However, the Pacers didn’t rely much on their ball handler/screener action, a thing we will closely look if Oklahoma decides to punish Haliburton defensively. I expect a McConnell-Haliburton duo inside the hardwood if this doesn’t get solved. Just to relive some pressure to Haliburton in bringing the ball full court.

• What Indiana could do in protecting the ball, Oklahoma can do better.

-You thought that the Pacers are already decent in protecting their possessions (top 4 in fewest turnovers and opponent’s steals)? Well guess what, Oklahoma could top it off with a way better stat-line. In the playoffs, the Thunder are the top-ranked team to have fewest turnovers and opponent’s steals. They secure the ball well, a reason why they are able to pile up points and negate the opposing team’s fast break points opportunity.

 

• Switches can lead to foul trouble.

-Easy with the “free throw merchant” chants for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. But boy do you even all wonder how hard it is to get angles and earn the nods of the referees to sell the contact? The Thunder take pride in putting their opponents in early foul troubles, specifically SGA’s ability to fish for fouls in any desired matchup that he wants in the switch and in the isolation. Here’s my prediction: Expect SGA to target Haliburton, Siakam, and Turner. With these three pillars in foul trouble, Indiana wouldn’t be the same, and will have a slower pace in attacking.

• Insane rim protection.

-Some analysts and experts tag Oklahoma as a backline team. What does this mean? If a player gets past their initial line of defense, the final wall, Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein, will meet you underneath and bother your shot. In the Denver series, Jokic, who is known as a multi-level scorer, was seen struggling trying to penetrate the lengthy OKC defense, thus, turning back again into a facilitator. The same principle was applied in the conference finals, when the whole Minnesota team was only held to 96.5 points per game in all of their losses, their worst scoring output in the past two playoffs since 2024. Since Haliburton’s turbo mode activation, expect the floor general to pull it back once in a while, as they don’t want to get their shots swatted away by the long arms of the OKC big men.

 

• They have the MVP.

– An MVP is a MVP for a reason. Having the season’s best player on your team will not only boost your morale, but of course, will increase your chances of winning knowing that you have the ultimate hooper in the biggest league of the world. SGA is no fluke, averaging 29.8 points, 6.9 assists, and 5.7 rebounds per game in the playoffs is a stat-line of a stalwart. Unique on his own, SGA can scrap an entire defensive scheme just because of his offensive capabilities and has also evolved into a great playmaker. When the finals kicks off, its go time for all of the stars, but all eyes will be on the MVP.

Now all the tendencies, strengths, and possible matchups presented, both teams will surely give their A-game, given that they already have the hunger to bag the title and the youth that can go more than seven games.

My bold predictions?

Oklahoma takes the series 4-2.

Or Maybe 4-1.

Adios, hoopers.