Implosion

By Artchil B. Fernandez

 

This week, the House of Representatives opened a national teledrama played out not only in the session hall but before the nation. The chaos, uncertainty, and unpredictability of the 15-21 political saga will keep the country riveted in weeks and even months to come.

No less than Du30 is the producer of the 15-21 drama when he brokered an agreement between rivals for the Speakership, Alan Peter Cayetano and Lord Allan Velasco in July 2019. To stave-off the early demise of the Super Majority in the Lower House, Du30 proposed a term-sharing of the Speaker post. Cayetano will first become Speaker, serving for 15 months and Velasco will hold the post for 21 months.

The term of Cayetano is supposed to end last month and this month, Velasco takes over the House leadership. A few months ago, there were signs that the agreement was in trouble. Cayetano accused Velasco of plotting a coup and since then, the bad blood between the two thickened.

Early last month, with the end of Cayetano’s term nearing, his group once again resurrected the old charge of coup plotting against the group of Velasco. The coup narrative looks odd and suspicious. Why would Velasco plot to oust Cayetano when he is on the eve of taking over the House leadership as stipulated in the Du30-brokered agreement? Is there a need for a coup if the agreement is being honored by the parties?

Few days before September ends, the group of Cayetano became vocal and bolder in asserting that Cayetano should stay as Speaker using the 2021 budget as cover as well as the Covid-19 pandemic. With the 2021 national budget still being deliberated and the pandemic ravaging the country, a changing of the guard in the House is an unnecessary distraction. The implementation of the 15-21 agreement is in peril.

Early this week, the Cayetano bloc sprung a surprise when 202 members of the House signed a manifesto calling for the abrogation of the 15-21 agreement. “In these trying times, as the nation is being wracked by an unprecedented public health and economic crisis brought about by the COVID-19 pandemic, we reiterate our continued full and unequivocal support for Speaker Cayetano and the entire leadership of the House, and join the President in his desire to allow the membership to chart its own course in choosing those who would lead this chamber,” they said.

Sensing his chances to be Speaker slipping, Velasco and his group appealed to Du30 to intervene once more. Both parties were called to Malacañang.  After the meeting, it was announced that the agreement holds. It seems the Capo di Capi settled the Speakership brawl again. The turnover of leadership in the House was set on October 14.

Less than twenty-four hours after Du30 “resolved” (again) the Cayetano-Velasco tiff over the Speakership, Cayetano and his group struck back. Cayetano offered to resign as Speaker and true to the script, his allies moved for a nominal voting to accept or reject the resignation offer. Result of the vote reveals 184 members of the House rejected the resignation offer, only one accepted, while 9 abstained.

The move is a show of force, Cayetano indirectly telling Du30 that he has the numbers. After the vote Cayetano gleefully declared. “I will make a fearless forecast: Hindi siya mananalo. Or if I step aside, mananalo siya after one week makukudeta siya. Bakit? Maraming popular sa Kongreso,” referring to Velasco’s chances.

This latest twist makes the 15-21 teledrama tantalizing. Cayetano’s move is definitely not the final chapter. Various blocs in the House will maneuver and counter-maneuver to advance their agenda. This signals the implosion of the Super Majority.

The real loser in the messy fracas for Speakership is the producer of the show, Du30. Whether Cayetano retains his post or Velasco takes over, it is a lose-lose situation for the Capo di Capi.

If Cayetano retains his post, this implies the inability of Du30 to impose his will on the House. He will also loss face since he is the one who brokered the agreement. This is a public declaration of Du30 as a lame duck president.

Cayetano defying Du30 is a slap on his face and punctures Du30’s political invincibility.  Du30’s failure to rein in Cayetano jeopardizes his political future, particularly the chances of his chosen successor. A Cayetano victory means Du30 has lost control of his own coalition and its fragmentation. It shows his political clout has been considerably diminished, weakening his position vis-a-vis the 2022 election.

If Du30 succeeds in enforcing the agreement and Velasco is installed as Speaker, it will break-up the Super Majority for the faction of Cayetano will certainly not take his removal sitting down. Packaged as a prediction, Cayetano is already threatening that even if Velasco takes over, he will not stay in the post for so long and could be overthrown in a coup. As 2022 nears, it will be hard for Du30 to leash the members of the Super Majority with the alignment of political forces for the local and national elections.

Regardless of who wins in the Cayetano-Velasco row, it could only get uglier as the power struggle in the House intensifies. In the middle of this is Du30 whose political stature is in jeopardy and his political capital could evaporate as casualty in the power play.

Velasco claims in a statement issued after the House vote on Cayetano’s resignation offer that Du30 ordered Cayetano to honor the term-sharing agreement. This puts Du30 in a delicate, awkward, and difficult situation. Cayetano’s defiance makes Du30 appear politically impotent but Velasco’s ascendancy will create another powerful opponent for him. Whatever is the outcome of the fight for the Speakership, or wherever it goes, Du30 is the biggest loser – the producer of the show losing big-time.