Imee and Camille’s Summersault

By Artchil B. Fernandez

It’s only three weeks before Election Day and two candidates of the administration did a political somersault. Many viewed their move as wild, if not reckless. Could it be an act of desperation on their part?

Sen. Imee Marcos and Rep. Camille Villar are part of the 12-person Senate slate of the administration. Yet, they are also close to the Dutertes. Imee Marcos is reportedly the one who brokered the UniTeam and was steadfast in defending her ties with the Dutertes. Camille Villar is part of the Villar dynasty, who are the Dutertes’ close allies. Her brother, Mark Villar, was the public works secretary of the Duterte patriarch.

Despite their closeness to the Dutertes, Imee Marcos and Camille Villar decided to run under the administration’s Alyansa para sa Bagong Pilipinas. Their decision is dictated by pragmatism and convenience. Alyansa para sa Bagong Pilipinasenjoys the tremendous advantage of being in power. The administration has huge means as the incumbent, as well as a wide network of allies. These are valuable resources to win a senatorial campaign.

Initially, Imee Marcos and Camille Villar had immense advantage over other candidates in the senatorial race. They had the support of the two big political blocs – the Dutertes and the Marcoses. Both candidates also had vast financial reserves and enormous campaign chests. In fact, prior to the start of the official campaign period, each had spent PHP1 billion in campaign advertisements in both traditional and digital media.

Huge spending on campaign advertisements in all platforms failed to improve the poll standing of Imee Marcos and Camille Villar. Their numbers are either at the tail-end of the magic twelve or even outside it. Both were struggling in the surveys.

The intensification of conflict between House Duterte and House Marcos complicates the situation for Imee Marcos and Camille Villar. Despite her inclusion in the administration slate, Camille Villar is among a small minority in the House of Representatives who did not sign the impeachment complaint against Vice President Sara Duterte. Imee Marcos, on the other hand, publicly declared her distaste for the impeachment of the vice president.

To express her protest on the impeachment of Sara Duterte, Imee Marcos threatened to leave the administration alliance. She relented, later joining the campaign sorties of the administration. Her brother, Bongbong Marcos (BBM), accepted her back.

Then the arrest and handover of former President Rodrigo Duterte to the International Criminal Court (ICC) happened. While Camille Villar chose to be silent on the arrest and detention of the Duterte patriarch, Imee Marcos was furious. She openly criticized the action of her brother’s administration. While Imee Marcos did not directly attack her brother, she directed her ire to his underlings.

BBM was definitely stung by his sister’s action. In retaliation, he did not mention her name anymore in campaign rallies and stressed the administration has only eleven candidates. Getting his message, Imee Marcos formally left the administration slate.

Camille Villar’s silence and Imee Marcos’ erratic stance – in and out of administration – did not improve their poll standing. Villar’s survey numbers are irregular. In some surveys she is within the winning circle, albeit lower rank, while in some surveys she is outside the magic twelve. Imee Marcos, on the other hand, remains consistently outside the winning circle. Her poll number continues to drop.

With the campaign in the homestretch, the window is getting narrow for Imee Marcos and Camille Villar. This could explain their political somersault which observers view as rash, if not careless.

The biggest surprise this week is the open endorsement of Imee Marcos by Sara Duterte. In a new campaign ad, both appeared clad in black. The ad ended with a statement: “Inday (Sara) Trusts Imee Marcos.” In the video, both attacked the administration. “Black is the color of the country because of hunger and crimes. It’s in mourning. There’s hunger in the stomach and hunger for justice. Those who are not allies are being harassed,” they cried.

In Imee Marcos’ calculation, Sara Duterte’s endorsement is the saving grace. It might finally convince the Duterte supporters to vote for her. This is pure speculation.

Rabid Duterte supporters are mad at the Marcoses for sending their tatay to The Hague. The Marcos name tastes bitter in their mouth. Can Sara Duterte’s backing overcome their anger? Can the fury of the Diehard Duterte Supporters (DDS) be assuaged by her endorsement? Will they trust a Marcos again?

The Marcoses have already fooled the Dutertes before. Based on their reactions to the arrest and detention of their tatay, solid Dutertes vowed they will not be fooled again. “Never again,” they cried. Will they accept Imee Marcos just because of Inday Sara?

Camille Villar also reportedly got the backing of Sara Duterte. Like Imee Marcos, she hopes the endorsement will rescue her senatorial run. Even if she wins votes from the Duterte side, Camille Villar will likely lose substantial Marcos loyalist votes.

Sara Duterte is trying to increase the number of senators who will block her impeachment in the Senate. The administration, on the other hand, aims to elect senators who will support the impeachment of Sara Duterte. This situation puts the candidacy of Imee Marcos and Camille Villar in serious peril. Since they are trying to hitch on the Duterte and Marcos wagons, can both sides trust them? Will their strategic risk save their faltering candidacy? They could end up abandoned by rival camps they wanted to ride.

Only the election results will vindicate the reckless political gamble of Imee Marcos and Camille Villar. Their move is apparently shaped by the desperation of the hour. It can be a political suicide or an act of political survival.