Guimaras inflation cools, but rice keeps budgets tight

GUIMARAS — The Philippine Statistics Authority’s Guimaras Provincial Statistical Office clarified key trends behind the province’s July 2026 inflation performance during a virtual news conference via Google Meet on Aug. 13.

Supervising Statistical Specialist Vicente G. Geonanga said Guimaras was the only province in Western Visayas to post slower headline inflation in July, easing to 4.6% from 5.1% in June.

The July rate was also below Western Visayas’ 7.8% inflation rate and the national rate of 6.2%.

Geonanga said the slowdown meant prices continued to rise from a year earlier but at a slower pace than in the previous month.

He said the trend suggested relatively slower price adjustments for some commodities in Guimaras compared with other areas in the region.

Geonanga emphasized, however, that slower inflation does not mean prices are declining.

He said consumers may feel some relief from slower price increases, particularly for food and transport-related commodities.

Households may still face pressure on their budgets because overall prices remain higher than a year earlier.

Responding to a question on whether slower inflation in food and nonalcoholic beverages and faster inflation in alcoholic beverages and tobacco indicated changing consumer preferences, Geonanga said inflation measures price movements rather than purchasing behavior.

“Therefore, the slower inflation in Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages and the faster inflation in Alcoholic Beverages and Tobacco do not automatically indicate a shift in consumer preferences. Determining changes in household consumption patterns would require separate expenditure or household consumption data,” Geonanga said.

The PSA also distinguished between a commodity group’s share in driving an inflation trend and its contribution to the overall inflation rate.

For all-income households, vegetables, tubers, plantains, cooking bananas, and pulses accounted for 52.7% of the slowdown in food inflation in July.

Fruits and nuts accounted for another 16.7% of the food inflation trend as their inflation rate slowed to 4.6% in July from 9.7% in June.

For households in the bottom 30% income group, vegetables, tubers, plantains, cooking bananas, and pulses accounted for 60.7% of the downward food inflation trend.

Fruits and nuts accounted for 13.2% of the downward trend among low-income households.

Fish and other seafood, meanwhile, contributed 41.3%, or 2.23 percentage points, to food inflation among bottom 30% income households as its inflation rate accelerated to 9.2% from 8.3%.

When measured by contribution to the 4.6% headline inflation rate for all-income households, cereals and cereal products accounted for 32.2%, or 1.48 percentage points.

Rice, the largest specific commodity contributor, posted 12% inflation in July from 8.4% in June and accounted for 28.4%, or 1.31 percentage points, of overall inflation.

Fish and other seafood contributed 19.6%, or 0.90 percentage point, to headline inflation among all-income households.

For bottom 30% income households, headline inflation remained unchanged at 5.7% in July from June.

Rice inflation among low-income households accelerated to 11.9% in July from 8.3% in June, contributing 36%, or 2.05 percentage points, to the 5.7% headline rate.

Fish and other seafood contributed 17.6%, or 1 percentage point, to overall inflation among bottom 30% income households.

Transport, meanwhile, accounted for 21.8%, or 1.24 percentage points, of the overall inflation rate for the income group, even as transport inflation slowed to 20.9% from 23.3%.

Addressing the unchanged 5.7% inflation rate among bottom 30% income households, Geonanga said faster and slower price movements across commodity groups offset one another.

“While Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages and Transport recorded slower inflation, faster inflation was observed in Alcoholic Beverages and Tobacco, Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels, Furnishings, Household Equipment and Routine Household Maintenance, and Education Services.”

“These opposing movements balanced each other, resulting in an unchanged inflation rate for low-income households,” Geonanga said.

PSA data showed that food and nonalcoholic beverages inflation among low-income households eased to 5.2% in July from 5.4% in June, while transport inflation slowed to 20.9% from 23.3%. citeturn390945view0

Alcoholic beverages and tobacco inflation accelerated to 7.6% from 7.1%, while housing, water, electricity, gas, and other fuels rose to 1.9% from negative 0.3%.

Inflation for furnishings, household equipment, and routine household maintenance increased to 3.1% from 2.9%, while education services rose to 2.8% from 2.7%.

Geonanga said rice remained one of the biggest sources of inflationary pressure on low-income households.

PSA data also showed higher year-on-year price increases in several rice varieties, including well-milled and regular-milled rice.

Geonanga stressed that inflation data alone cannot identify the specific causes of rice price increases because the PSA’s role is to measure and report price movements and inflation.

He said a 5.7% inflation rate means goods and services commonly purchased by low-income households cost an average of 5.7% more in July 2026 than in July 2025.

As an illustration, a basket of goods and services costing PHP 10,000 in July 2025 would cost about PHP 10,570 in July 2026 if the same consumption pattern were maintained.

Geonanga stressed that the example is not a fixed estimate for every household because actual spending varies according to family size, income, and consumption patterns.

He said households spending a larger share of their budgets on rice, fish, and fuel products are likely to feel a greater impact because those commodities were among the major sources of price pressure during the month.

For additional context, Guimaras’ consumer price index stood at 138.2 in July, meaning average prices in the province were 38.2% higher than in the 2018 base year.

The province’s purchasing power of the peso remained at PHP 0.72 in July, meaning PHP 1 in 2018 had the purchasing power of about PHP 0.72 during the month.

The PSA said inflation and consumer price index data serve as key inputs for policymakers, planners, and local government officials to develop programs and interventions that address the effects of rising prices on households and communities.