Guimaras exits deflation, but rising oil prices threaten more hikes

By Mariela Angella Oladive

GUIMARAS — The ongoing conflict in the Middle East may trigger higher inflation in the coming months as rising global oil prices affect oil-importing countries such as the Philippines, a Philippine Statistics Authority official said during a press conference on March 10.

PSA Guimaras Chief Statistical Specialist Nelida Losare said the country’s dependence on imported crude oil makes it vulnerable to supply disruptions and fuel price increases in the global market.

“We do not produce crude oil and are mostly dependent on importation. If supply becomes limited, prices are expected to increase,” Losare said.

She noted that petroleum products have already posted consecutive price hikes in recent weeks.

Recent monitoring showed gasoline prices have increased for nine straight weeks, while diesel and kerosene have risen for 11 consecutive weeks.

The price increases have been driven largely by escalating tensions between the United States and Iran, which have disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for roughly 20 percent of the world’s oil supply.

Losare said higher oil prices could trigger a chain reaction across various sectors of the economy.

Manufacturing firms that depend on fuel for production and transportation may raise the prices of their goods.

She said these increases could eventually push overall inflation higher.

“If prices increase and are higher compared to the same month last year, inflation is expected to increase as well,” she stressed.

She added that the impact of rising fuel prices is not limited to a single sector but affects almost all sectors of the economy.

“Let us hope that this crisis will not last long and that it will end soon,” she added.

Data presented by the PSA during the briefing showed that Guimaras recorded an inflation rate of 0.4 percent in February.

The figure reversed the negative 0.6 percent inflation recorded in January.

It also marked the province’s first positive inflation rate after seven months of negative inflation, also known as deflation, which occurs when the general price level of goods and services falls over a sustained period.

Despite the increase, Losare said the province’s inflation rate remains lower than the national inflation rate of 2.4 percent.

She also noted that the rate is below the Western Visayas regional inflation rate of 3.0 percent.

Inflation measures the rate at which the prices of goods and services increase over time and is one of the key indicators used to assess the health of an economy.

Losare confirmed that the PSA has issued an internal advisory on energy-saving measures amid rising fuel costs.

Among the measures being implemented are turning off air conditioning units and lights during lunch breaks when there are no clients.

The office also switches off air conditioning units by 4 p.m. to reduce electricity consumption.

The PSA is also studying the possible adoption of a four-day workweek through adjusted working hours.

Another option being considered is allowing employees to work from home for one day each week.

Losare said some training programs may also be conducted online to reduce operational costs.

However, sessions involving new systems will still be held face-to-face to ensure proper understanding among statistical researchers.

The agency is also transitioning to digital data collection through tablets and updated survey systems.

These initiatives aim to accelerate the processing of survey results and improve efficiency in statistical reporting.