GMA’s headache

By Artchil B. Fernandez

Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo (GMA) is the only former president of the country who is still very much active in politics. Her political involvement is motivated not by the desire for public service but rather for self-preservation.

In 2016, GMA cobbled together a political coalition that eventually defeated the ruling Liberal Party and its allies. The GMA coalition comprises those who were displaced by PNoy’s victory in 2010 and those who are in the political wilderness. The GMA counter-hegemonic bloc includes, aside from her group, the Cayetanos, the Dutertes, the Estradas, the Enriles, the Marcoses, and the Villars. The list is a virtual “Who’s Who” of those accused of plundering the national treasury.

The GMA alliance rallied around the candidacy of Du30. Upon Du30’s assumption of the presidency, GMA and allies right away enjoyed the fruits of their labor. GMA was immediately freed from hospital arrest and cases against her were dropped. The Marcoses were granted of their long-cherished wish, burial of their dictator patriarch in the Libingan ng mga Bayani. A Cayetano was rewarded with a foreign affairs portfolio and a Villar cornered the public works office – a perfect complement to their real estate empire.

Another election cycle is upon the country. Seven months from now, Filipinos will elect a new president and vice-president as well as fill in thousands of national and local posts.

What is now the status of the coalition GMA formed in 2016, the current ruling bloc? Like the previous ruling coalitions in the post-EDSA period, the present hegemonic bloc is now in a state of fragmentation, suffering from a crisis of irrelevance as it is about to outlive its purpose. The factions within the GMA coalition are currently busy preparing for their future beyond Du30 and each is trying to secure it’s a place in the post-Du30 era. The inevitable happened, the break-up of GMA’s alliance as each faction is now pursuing its selfish interest.

First to implode is Du30’s political party, PDP-Laban.  The root of the party split is the irreconcilable plans of party president Sen. Manny Pacquiao and party chair Du30.  Pacquiao wants to run for president while Du30 had another person in mind.  Today the party has two-wings, and each will field a presidential candidate while fighting an acrimonious legal battle for accreditation in the Comelec.

Isko Moreno resigned from the National Unity Party (NUP) which is part of GMA’s coalition to pursue his presidential run. While Sen. Lacson is not part of GMA’s coalition, his running mate Sen. Tito Sotto and his Nationalist People’s Coalition (NPC) are junior partners of GMA’s bloc. Moreno and Sotto are now politically at odds with GMA’s coalition as they seek higher office. The Cayetanos on the other hand are silently figuring out their future but are definitely now outside the ruling bloc.

The disintegration of the coalition she formed in 2016 is a serious problem for GMA at present. But what gives her a headache is not the split of PDP-Laban or the departure of Moreno, Sotto, the Cayetanos and other junior partners but how to preserve the Du30-Marcos alliance. GMA can afford to part ways with her other coalition partners but the break-up of the Du30-Marcos alliance is her biggest nightmare.

Forming the Du30-Marcos alliance is GMA’s major accomplishment in 2016 but the unraveling of the partnership in face of the 2022 election will make her lose sleep.  Given the admiration of Du30 to the dictator Ferdinand Marcos and the Marcoses seemingly unconditional support to him, people assume the relationship between the Dutertes and the Marcoses is smooth. This is far from true, especially with 2022 looming. The 2022 agenda of both camps do not necessarily coincide this time.

Returning to power is the life-long project of the Marcoses. The trajectory of Bongbong Marcos’ political career clearly spells this out – senator, vice-president (foiled by Leni Robredo), and the presidency in 2022. The Marcoses cannot wait for another election cycle since the situation may not be favorable to them by that time. Long before Du30 appeared on the national scene, the Marcoses had been working hard to capture Malacañang.  They won’t compromise their obsession and will pursue it with or without the Dutertes.

Du30 fears for his security after he steps down from office. He will be hounded by dozens of cases and the ICC investigation is compounding his fright. He must ensure that the next administration is totally committed to protecting him. There are only two people Du30 is confident and fully trust who will do everything to protect him, his daughter Sara and his faithful attendant Bong Go. Either of them must be the next president. This is Du30’s agenda and between them, Sara has a shot at the presidency.

Sara Duterte’s non-declaration of her presidential run indicates frantic negotiation behind the scenes is going on to preserve the Duterte-Marcos alliance. At the center of forging a compromise between the two camps is GMA. She must preserve the partnership for her own protection. Her hospital arrest in 2010 was traumatic for her.

Who will give way? Will Du30 become Bongbong Marcos’ vice-president or will Bongbong Marcos slide down to be Sara Duterte’s vice-president? In this instance Marcos has the upper hand. He can run without a Duterte but without Marcos backing, Sara Duterte’s presidential run is in trouble. If the Dutertes and the Marcoses fight each other in 2022 both can lose, and GMA is in big trouble with an opposition victory.

But the wily GMA is buying her own insurance by running for congresswoman in case the Duterte-Marcos alliance collapses. Congress is her alternative shield.