Four-way tie leads early 2028 Senate race, OCTA survey shows

ILOILO CITY — Raffy Tulfo, Robin Padilla, Alan Peter Cayetano, and Vico Sotto are locked in a statistical tie for first place in an early survey on the 2028 senatorial race, OCTA Research reported on Monday.

Tulfo posted a voting preference of 47%, followed by Padilla at 45%, Cayetano at 44%, and Sotto at 42% in the 3Q 2026 Tugon ng Masa (TNM) survey.

The four share a rank range of first to fourth, which means their relative order cannot be treated as statistically fixed.

Tulfo, Padilla, and Cayetano are sitting senators, while Sotto is the mayor of Pasig City.

Former Sen. Grace Poe and Davao City Mayor Sebastian “Baste” Duterte followed with 36% each, while Sen. Loren Legarda registered 31%.

Poe and Duterte share a rank range of fifth to seventh, while Legarda’s range runs from fifth to 10th.

Several other prospective candidates remain in contention for the remaining slots in the top 12, OCTA said.

Abby Binay (29%), Mark Lapid (28%), and Francis “Chiz” Escudero (27%) formed the next group.

Sonny Angara and Manny Pacquiao followed with 25% each, then Ben Tulfo with 23% and Jinggoy Estrada with 22%.

All of them were positioned within or near the preliminary top 12.

Because many estimates are separated by only a few percentage points, OCTA said the rankings should be interpreted using the reported rank ranges rather than as fixed placements.

The TNM is an independent and non-partisan poll that OCTA conducts regularly.

The results are non-commissioned and are being released as a public service, the research group said.

Fieldwork ran from Sept. 28 to Oct. 4, 2026, through face-to-face interviews with 1,200 male and female probability respondents aged 18 and older nationwide.

The survey has a margin of error of ±3 percentage points at the 95% confidence level.

Subnational estimates carry a margin of error of ±6% at the same confidence level for the National Capital Region, Balance Luzon (Luzon outside Metro Manila), Visayas, and Mindanao.

Respondents were asked: “I have here a list of names that may run in the May 2028 elections. If the May 2028 elections will be held today, who will you likely vote for as SENATOR? You may choose up to 12 names.”

Because respondents could choose up to 12 names, the percentages are not shares of a single vote.

OCTA stressed that the exercise is hypothetical: the official filing of candidacies is still more than a year away, the final field of candidates has not been determined, and several individuals included in the survey may ultimately decide not to run.

Some individuals initially considered for inclusion were removed from the list at their request, and names receiving less than 1% were excluded from the published results.

OCTA said these exclusions should be considered when interpreting the distribution of preferences, and that they do not imply that the published names make up the complete or final field of potential candidates.

The findings “should not be interpreted as a forecast of the 2028 senatorial election,” OCTA said, adding that they provide only a snapshot of voter preferences during the fieldwork period.

Preferences may change substantially as political alignments, candidacies, campaign conditions, public issues, and voter information evolve, the group added.

Rank ranges are reported because candidates with close percentages may be statistically tied within the survey’s margin of error.

Binay’s rank range runs from seventh to 12th, Lapid’s from seventh to 13th, and Escudero’s from seventh to 14th. Angara and Pacquiao share a range of eighth to 16th, Ben Tulfo’s runs from ninth to 19th, and Estrada’s from 10th to 19th.

Their overlapping rank ranges show that several prospective candidates remain competitive for positions within the preliminary top 12, OCTA said.

Aquilino “Koko” Pimentel III and Salvador “Sal” Panelo (both 20%), Mark Villar (19%), and Gringo Honasan and Francis “Tol” Tolentino (both 18%) also remained within the broad statistical range covering the last available slots, according to OCTA.

Pimentel and Panelo each have a rank range of 11th to 27th, while Villar’s runs from 13th to 27th, Honasan’s from 13th to 28th, and Tolentino’s from 15th to 30th.

OCTA’s table marks with a red line the names whose rank range begins at 12th or better, and Villar, Honasan, and Tolentino fall below it.

These are not definitive placements, OCTA said, since sampling error and future changes in the field of prospective candidates may alter the rankings.

In the Q2 2026 TNM survey, conducted from July 4 to 11, Padilla led at 53.9% and Tulfo followed at 47.4%.

Padilla was then the only prospective candidate with a statistically fixed first-place ranking, the Philippine Star reported in July.

In Q3, Tulfo’s figure is essentially unchanged at 47%, while Padilla registered 45%.

Cayetano (45.4% to 44%) and Sotto (42.0% to 42%) were also largely steady.

Poe (44.5% to 36%), Legarda (39.0% to 31%), and Pacquiao (34.5% to 25%) registered lower figures.

Angara (19.2% to 25%) and Escudero (23.2% to 27%) registered higher figures.

OCTA cautioned that the list of names presented to respondents differed between rounds, so quarter-on-quarter comparisons should be made with caution.

Rep. Paolo “Pulong” Duterte, who drew 34.3% in the Q2 survey, does not appear in the published Q3 results, and the OCTA release does not say why.

The 2028 elections are scheduled for May 8, 2028, when 12 of the Senate’s 24 seats will be at stake.

The Commission on Elections has eyed September 2027 for the filing of certificates of candidacy, earlier than in past election cycles, according to reports by the Philippine News Agency and The Manila Times.

Tulfo, whose Senate term ends in 2028, said on March 2 that seeking reelection is his target and that he has no plans to run for president, the Philippine Star reported.

Sotto, who began his third and final term as Pasig City mayor on June 30, 2025, said then that he would not run for any national post in 2028, according to the Philippine Star.

The Star also noted in July that Sotto has repeatedly said he is not interested in running for higher office after his current term ends.

Padilla’s own plans remain unsettled, as his wife, Mariel, said in February that he had decided not to run in 2028, then said in May that he was not yet done with politics without saying whether he would seek another term, the Philippine Daily Inquirer reported.

The following table shows the complete list of 45 names published in the TNM results.

Table 1

Voting preference for the 2028 senatorial elections

Sept. 28 to Oct. 4, 2026 / Philippines (in percent)

The sample covered socioeconomic classes A, B, C, D, and E, with 300 respondents each in the National Capital Region, Balance Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao.

The National Capital Region sample of 300 was urban. Balance Luzon had 80 urban and 220 rural respondents, made up of 20 urban and 125 rural in North Luzon and 60 urban and 95 rural in South Luzon. Visayas had 100 urban and 200 rural respondents, and Mindanao had 105 urban and 195 rural.

In Western Visayas (Region VI), OCTA interviewed 80 respondents, with a margin of error of ±11%.

The other Visayas samples were 95 respondents in Region VII (±10%), 65 in Region VIII (±12%), and 60 in the Negros Island Region (±13%).

A total of 240 sample barangays were distributed among the 18 regions in proportion to population size, with five probability respondents selected in each barangay.

In the National Capital Region, the 60 sample barangays were distributed among the 17 cities and municipalities in rough proportion to population size, and each city or municipality was assigned at least one barangay.

Barangays were randomly selected without replacement, and five households in each were drawn through interval sampling from a randomly chosen starting street corner, with every sixth household sampled.

In each household, a respondent was randomly chosen from among members aged 18 and older using a probability selection table.

To ensure that half of the respondents were male and half were female, only male family members were pre-listed in odd-numbered questionnaires, while only female members were pre-listed in even-numbered ones.

Where no qualified respondent of a given gender was available, interval sampling of households continued until five sample respondents were identified.

Outside the National Capital Region, sample barangays were allocated to regions in proportion to population size.

Within each region, cities and municipalities were allocated in proportion to household population size and selected without replacement and with probability proportional to household population size.

Each selected city or municipality was assigned a number of barangays roughly proportional to its household population size, with at least one barangay each, and the barangays were randomly selected without replacement.

Five households were selected in each sample barangay through interval sampling.

In urban barangays, a random corner was identified, a random start was generated, and the sampling interval was five.

In rural barangays, the starting point could be a school, the barangay captain’s house, a church or chapel, or a barangay or municipal hall, and the interval was one.

The questionnaire was developed by OCTA and finalized by the project manager, and it was prepared in Filipino with an English translation.

It was also translated into Bicol, Cebuano, Ilocano, and Ilonggo for use in different areas.

Field interviewers underwent training, held face to face and online, in Quezon City, Cebu City, Iloilo City, Zamboanga City, and Davao City.

Field supervisors observed 10% of total interviews and conducted follow-ups and surprise checks on interviewers.

Spot checks were conducted on 25% of the interviews that supervisors did not observe, and unsupervised interviews were re-interviewed or back-checked.

If serious errors persisted after spot-checking, the original interviews were invalidated and the respondents were re-interviewed.

An error was considered serious if there was evidence of dishonest recording of responses or a serious misinterpretation of the study that resulted in incorrect information.

If a probability respondent was not available during the initial visit, a second visit was scheduled within the same day.

If the qualified respondent was still not available, or the door was still locked after two valid callbacks, a substitute interview was conducted.

Substitutes were required to have the same economic class, age group, working status, and gender, and to come from the same area as the original respondent.

Responses were encoded in real time on tablets and smartphones using SurveyToGo software for computer-assisted personal interviewing.

Before deployment, the data processing manager and the field director validated the programmed questionnaire for completeness, logical flow, and accuracy of checks such as required fields, range limits, and skip patterns.

For post-interview quality control, 18% of completed interviews were reviewed for area coverage using recorded GPS coordinates, for interview integrity using audio recordings and photo attachments, and for data accuracy through independent re-encoding cross-validated against the captured dataset.

Preliminary data tables were also generated to check the encoded data for accuracy of variable labels and values, and for completeness and consistency of entries.

The complete presentation of the survey results and technical details is available on OCTA’s website, www.octaresearch.com, and on its Facebook page, www.facebook.com/OCTAResearch.

Questions about the survey may be sent to OCTA Research Fellows Ranjit Rye and Guido David at octaresearchphilippines@gmail.com.

Table 2

Sample size, margin of error, and sample barangays by area

Margins of error are at the 95% confidence level.