Food security efforts keep November inflation at 1.5%

Government efforts to stabilize food supply and prices helped keep headline inflation low in November 2025 despite persistent global and domestic headwinds, according to the Department of Economy, Planning, and Development (DEPDev).

The Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) reported on December 5 that headline inflation slowed to 1.5 percent in November 2025 from 1.7 percent in October 2025 and 2.5 percent in November 2024.

This brought year-to-date inflation to 1.6 percent, below the government’s 2 to 4 percent target range for the year.

The latest print extends a sharp deceleration from the period of elevated inflation in 2022 and early 2023, when consumer prices briefly surged to their highest levels since 2008 before gradually easing.

DEPDev said the continued decline in inflation was driven primarily by the deflation in food prices, which ranged from minus 0.3 percent to 0.2 percent.

This was supported by a near-flat increase in prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages at 0.1 percent, alongside a steep slowdown in vegetable inflation to minus 6.5 percent from 2.9 percent and a moderation in meat inflation to 4.2 percent from 5.2 percent.

These improvements in food costs helped offset faster price increases in fish and non-food items, particularly those affected by higher electricity rates and personal transport expenses.

DEPDev Secretary Arsenio M. Balisacan linked the inflation moderation to the Marcos administration’s intensified efforts to ensure price stability through programs that strengthen food supply chains and reinforce food security.

One of the government’s flagship interventions is the planned expansion of the “Benteng Bigas, Meron Na!” program to more sites across all 81 provinces before year-end to bring affordable rice to vulnerable households by 2026.

The Department of Agriculture (DA) has also issued guidelines to reinforce safeguards against African swine fever while facilitating safe pork imports.

These DA guidelines allow regionalization by recognizing “ASF-free zones” within DA-accredited exporting countries and permitting pork imports from these specific low-risk areas.

To cushion the impact of rising electricity prices on poor families, the government is automating the registration of qualified beneficiaries of the Pantawid Pamilyang Pilipino Program (4Ps) for the Lifeline Rate Subsidy, which gives discounts on electricity bills to eligible households.

In the longer term, policymakers are pushing for the passage of a proposed Waste-to-Energy Bill that would enable the establishment of facilities using residual solid waste as feedstock for power generation, helping manage garbage while contributing to the country’s energy mix.

“The sustained moderation in inflation reflects our commitment to protect consumers and strengthen our economic resilience against global and domestic headwinds. We will continue implementing timely, well-coordinated policies to keep prices stable and ensure progress is felt by every Filipino,” the country’s chief economist said.

In a separate statement on the medium-term inflation path, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) said the November 2025 inflation outturn was within its forecast range of 1.1 to 1.9 percent.

The BSP said inflation is projected to average below the low end of the 2 to 4 percent target range in 2025, mainly due to the earlier decline in rice prices.

The central bank described the inflation outlook as generally benign, with inflation expected to remain well within the target range over the policy horizon.

For 2026 and 2027, the BSP said inflation is expected to settle within a 3.0 percent plus-or-minus 1.0 percentage point target band and noted that inflation expectations remain well anchored.

The BSP flagged potential electricity rate adjustments and possible increases in tariffs on rice imports as sources of upward pressure on prices.

Even so, the central bank assessed that risks to the inflation outlook are limited as supply-side pressures are expected to ease over the medium term.

The Monetary Board also noted that the outlook for domestic economic growth has weakened.

The weaker growth view reflects, in part, the dampening effect on business confidence of governance concerns over public infrastructure spending, as well as lingering uncertainty from the external environment.

The BSP said the Monetary Board will continue to review newly available information and reassess the impact of prior monetary actions in light of evolving economic conditions and their implications for both inflation and growth.

[1]: https://psa.gov.ph/system/files/psd/Press%2520Release%2520on%2520CPI%2520for%2520All%2520Income%2520Households%2520for%2520January%25202023_y3th4.pdf?utm_source=chatgpt.com “Table A. Year-on-Year Inflation Rates, All Items”

[2]: https://www.bsp.gov.ph/Price%20Stability/MonetaryPolicyReport/CondensedVersion_August2024.pdf?utm_source=chatgpt.com “Condensed version”

[3]: https://www.bsp.gov.ph/Price%20Stability/MonetaryPolicyReport/MonetaryPolicySummary_June2025.pdf?utm_source=chatgpt.com “Monetary policy summary”

[4]: https://www.pna.gov.ph/articles/1262601?utm_source=chatgpt.com “BSP expects inflation to remain manageable until 2027”

[5]: https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/philippines-revises-2025-growth-target-down-55-65-2025-06-26/?utm_source=chatgpt.com “Philippines revises medium term growth targets to reflect global uncertainties”