Flattening the Curve

By Art Jimenez

Estimates from leading epidemiological and institutional experts on communicable diseases estimate that in the US alone, Covid-19 could infect around 40 million people. In the Philippines, estimates run as high as 26,000 infections.

Covid-19 has yet no known cure and therefore no vaccines and no specific treatments are known for people infected by it. However, the medical science world is optimistic curative vaccines are forthcoming though actually “when” is still unknown.

According to Dr. Matthew McQueen authorities could either let the pandemic run its course since there are yet no known cure or reduce the community transmission of the virus as fast as possible.

A Harvard doctoral graduate of epidemiology (Biostatistics), McQueen suggests that we instead “Flatten the curve” of the virus spread. This means allowing the virus advance over a longer timeframe to give our scientists and health authorities time to cope and build the needed infra to reduce fatalities, and eventually defeat the virus.

Germany Chancellor Angela Merkel has the same advice. In her recent televised Message to her people, said stressed since “there is still neither a way to treat the Coronavirus, nor is there a vaccine, … then only one thing matters, namely that we slow the spread of the virus, flatten the curve (of contagion) over the course of several months and buy time.”

Chancellor Merkel herself placed herself under self-quarantine yesterday.

McQueen’s foresight has seen the light. Referring to the graph, he said, “On the steep rise of the epidemic curve, especially when testing capacity is lacking, there is a tremendous burden on health care providers – many of whom will fall ill themselves and be forced to self-isolate, becoming unable to provide care for those in need.

At the same time, there is immense pressure placed on health care facilities where demand for patient care will outpace capacity –things like the number of hospital beds, ventilators and so on – for a significant time.”

To him one solid way of “flattening the curve” is to ensure “social distancing” compliance.

McQueen concedes social distancing will entail huge socio-economic costs as people, especially the working population are on “stay at home” quarantine. Thus, government has to balance the cost-benefit of flattening the curve with positive interventions.

Meanwhile, the professor suggested, people should listen to the experts and follow their advice.