Flatten the fear and hysteria

By Modesto P. Sa-onoy

 

The September 23 report of Business World, carried an article, “Flatten the fear and hysteria, not the economy” written by Bienvenido S. Oplas, Jr., president of Minimal Government Thinkers. Oplas cited comparative economic data which “confirm that the Philippines’ hard, strict, and draconian lockdown policies did more harm than good.” How so? He summed up the reasons for his conclusions.

Firstly, Philippines has the “second worst performing gross domestic product in Asia next to India, the economic contraction is similar or worse than countries with five times to 15 times as many COVID-19 deaths per million population (CDPMP) than us, like the US, Brazil, Canada, Mexico, UK, France, Italy and Spain. Hong Kong has a deeper contraction but it is partly due to their Basic Law having been amended so that some China laws will apply to Hong Kong.”

Secondly, the “Philippines unemployment rate of 10% last July is again second highest in Asia next to India, and worse than those in the UK, France, and Italy which have very high CDPMP.”

Thirdly, the Philippines “has the steepest decline and contraction from last year probably in the whole world. From 6% in 2019 to -8.6% in the first half (H1, January-June) 2020, or a dive of -14.6% points.”

Fourthly, the Philippines “should not have had such a steep contraction considering that we have a small GDP of only $377 billion in 2019, just slightly higher than our neighbors with small populations like Hong Kong, Singapore and Malaysia.”

For better understanding by the ordinary people who are intimidated by too many technicalities, Oplas quantified in pesos, not just percentages, the changes in GDP, using current or nominal prices as they reflect current spending and income. The deep contraction means that some P680 billion in national income was lost in *H1 2020   compared to H1 2019. It also means that our GDP size in H1 2020 was even lower than H1 2018 or two years ago, despite the increase in population of nearly 3 million over the past two years.

He claimed that the “‘hypothesis – more lockdown = more virus control’ has been proven to be wrong. Otherwise, we should not have a high number of COVID-19 cases and deaths now considering the very strict lockdowns from March to May.”

Indeed people are now asking – why are cases rising despite the lockdowns and restrictions? Does this not say that the isolationist approach has failed or more people are violating the protocols?

Oplas said “President Rodrigo Duterte’s policy of indefinite lockdown until a safe and effective vaccine is available is wrong. It will prolong the economic agony without reducing COVID-19 cases. Instead, the President and the Inter Agency Task Force (IATF) should open up the economy by Oct. 1, lift the generalized lockdown for all, and limit the quarantine only to small areas where serious cases are reported, and retain the restriction on mobility those 70 years and above and immuno-compromised people.”

The article cited the doctors in the “Flatten the Fear Philippines” coalition “that suggested many cheap immune-boosting measures that people themselves can take without waiting for the vaccine like taking more Vitamins C and D, the use of known prophylaxis (hydroxychloroquine, zinc, etc.) vs other infectious diseases like malaria.”

We had been quoting doctors here and abroad that had used and are still using the HCQ cocktail and they are firm in their claim that the HCQ works. Unfortunately, the Department of Health does not believe and in fact, the government insinuated that these doctors would be investigated for prescribing an “illegitimate drug.”

Yes, there are existing and cheap measures to flatten the fear and hysteria, Oplas said. He said the “economy must rise again, the high government spending and borrowings that will require high taxes and regulatory fees must be controlled and flattened.”

The doctors, those practicing in this specific field have said their piece and now an economic view is presented on where the economy would be going. Our economy, needless to say, is already on its knees. Must the government remain adamant until the economy collapses?

Must the DoH continue to listen to Dr. Anthony Fauci, the man who insists he has not read a study showing HCQ is effective despite many practicing doctors saying otherwise?

More on HCQ tomorrow.*