Filipinos Want Reform, Doubt Elections – Survey

By Francis Allan L. Angelo

A majority of Filipinos support major economic reforms, distrust election campaigns and the Commission on Elections (COMELEC), and prefer candidates who will change the policies of the Marcos administration, according to WR Numero Research Inc.’s latest national survey.

WR Numero Research Inc. released its third 2025 volume of the Philippine Public Opinion Monitor (PPOM), revealing widespread public support for progressive reforms and deep skepticism toward electoral integrity just weeks before the May national polls.

The face-to-face survey, conducted from April 23 to 30, sampled 2,413 likely voters across the country and carries a ±2 percent margin of error for national data, with wider margins for subnational results.

Based on the survey, more than 9 in 10 Filipinos (93%) back free tuition for public colleges and universities, 85% support comprehensive sexuality and health education, and 77% believe the government should tax the wealthy to redistribute income.

A clear majority (62%) said the current minimum wage is too low, while 58% supported the right of workers to organize unions and strike.

TRUST ISSUES, PRIORITIES

However, public faith in democratic processes remains fragile.

Nearly half (48%) of voters view election campaigns as misleading and untruthful, and 61% worry about the spread of fake or misleading information during the election period.

COMELEC was trusted to be fair and impartial by only 47% of respondents.

One in four Filipinos expects the 2025 elections to be only partially clean and fair, while 26% expect the process to be neither clean, free, nor fair at all.

Only 33% believed the elections will be completely clean and fair.

Top reasons for expected unfairness include vote buying (42% to 44%), concerns about the accuracy of vote-counting machines (36% to 41%), and perceived bias in election laws that favor incumbents (30% to 38%).

Despite these misgivings, nearly 70% of Filipinos said the public will likely accept the results of the May elections regardless of the outcome.

When asked about their reasons for voting, nearly 30% cited a sense of civic duty, 29% said they wanted to bring change to their communities, 20% said they wanted to strengthen democracy, and 15% said they wanted to support specific candidates.

The survey also revealed Filipinos’ priorities for national lawmakers, with 38% demanding lower prices for basic goods and 36% asking for higher wages.

Combatting poverty and illegal drugs or crime tied at 29% as additional top concerns.

Sixty percent of respondents prefer Senate candidates who will reform the Marcos administration’s policies, while only 40% support candidates who will continue them.

DYNASTIC FUTURES

Support for political families remains mixed.

Supporters of the Dutertes and their allies made up the largest bloc (31%), followed by the Marcoses (15%) and the opposition (14%), while 31% said they were undecided.

In the 2025 Senate race, respondents said they were most likely to vote for Sen. Bong Go (28%), ACT-CIS Rep. Erwin Tulfo (27%), Sen. Bato dela Rosa (24%), and Ben Tulfo (16%).

In the Party-list race, eight of the 10 most preferred groups are incumbents, with 4Ps and Duterte Youth topping the list.

Vice President Sara Duterte leads the early preference for the 2028 presidential race with 38%, up 8 points since the last WR Numero survey. She is followed by Sen. Raffy Tulfo (15%) and former Vice President Leni Robredo (13%).

For the 2028 vice-presidential race, Sen. Bong Go emerged as the frontrunner with 23%, a notable rise from previously not being considered. Robredo follows at 16% and Sen. Grace Poe at 13%.

WR Numero’s post-election assessment found that its final pre-election survey correctly identified 11 of the 12 winning Senate candidates.

The exception was Rodante Marcoleta, who ranked 15th in the survey but secured a seat.

Some candidates, including Bam Aquino and Kiko Pangilinan, outperformed their projected vote shares, likely due to late campaign surges, while others such as Ben Tulfo, Bong Revilla, and Abby Binay underperformed compared to expectations.

Winning candidates such as Bong Go, Bato dela Rosa, Ping Lacson, Camille Villar, and Imee Marcos also secured seats despite lower-than-expected vote shares, indicating tight races near the cutoff.

WR Numero analyzed several hypotheses to explain the divergences.

Reweighting the data based on COMELEC’s registered voter profiles instead of the Philippine Statistics Authority’s household population made minimal difference.

The survey predicted that more people would skip voting for some candidates than actually did, and it guessed fewer valid votes than what really happened, likely because some respondents were tired during the interview or gave answers they might not follow through on in a real election.

The sample also slightly underrepresented people with lower educational attainment.

WR Numero emphasized that surveys are not predictions but time-specific snapshots of voter sentiment influenced by behavior, methodology, and timing. It reaffirmed its commitment to scientific rigor, transparency, and public engagement.

The PPOM reports use probability sampling and strict data quality standards to minimize bias and maintain validity.