Filipinos split on West PHL Sea response, favor diplomacy

MANILA — Filipino adults are divided on whether the Marcos administration is effectively handling tensions with China in the West Philippine Sea, but nearly 3 in 4 want the government to prioritize diplomacy over a show of strength, according to the August 2026 National Momentum Survey released Oct. 20 by Momentum Research.

The non-commissioned survey, conducted Aug. 18 to 23, asked Filipino adults nationwide whether they agree or disagree with the statement, “The Marcos Jr. administration is effective in responding to the West Philippine Sea issues with China.”

It found a nearly even split, with 45.2% agreeing the administration is effectively handling the issue and 45.0% disagreeing.

The other 1 in 10 Filipino adults (9.8%) are either undecided or refuse to answer.

The 0.2-percentage-point gap between those who agree and those who disagree is well within the survey’s national margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points.

The Philippines and China have long been locked in a dispute over parts of the South China Sea, including the West Philippine Sea. China continues to reject the 2016 arbitral ruling that affirmed the Philippines’ sovereign rights in its exclusive economic zone.

The ruling was issued July 12, 2016, by an arbitral tribunal in The Hague, Netherlands, in a case Manila filed in 2013.

Over the years, the Philippine Coast Guard has reported repeated incursions by Chinese vessels, in which Philippine vessels have been water-cannoned, rammed, or blocked.

Most recently, Chinese Ambassador Jing Quan told reporters on Oct. 15 that China could “easily win” a military conflict with the Philippines, while saying Beijing would not use force to settle maritime disputes. He spoke on the sidelines of a forum in Quezon City.

The Department of Foreign Affairs said the remarks would seem to convey a “thinly veiled threat of the use of force.”

President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. said Oct. 16 that the remarks deserved a discussion between him and the ambassador.

The Momentum Research release said the department summoned Jing over his “provocative” remarks that Beijing could “easily win” a confrontation with the Philippines, as well as his comments against Philippine officials who criticized him.

Some lawmakers have called for declaring the envoy persona non grata. The Palace, however, said Marcos has no intention of expelling the Chinese diplomat, according to the release.

Palace Press Officer Claire Castro said Jan. 30 that Marcos had rejected earlier calls to declare Jing persona non grata.

Fieldwork for the survey ended Aug. 23, nearly two months before Jing made his remarks. The results therefore do not capture public reaction to them.

Across most regions, opinion is largely divided on whether the response of the Marcos administration to the maritime dispute is effective. Mindanao is the only exception, where adults are more likely to disagree (46.4%) than agree (35.8%), while another 17.7% are unsure or decline to answer.

In the Visayas, 48.7% disagree and 46.1% agree, while 5.2% are unsure or decline to answer.

Meanwhile, opinion is less divided among the older generations, such as Gen X (47.8%) and Baby Boomers (53.5%), who are more likely to say the current administration is effectively dealing with the maritime dispute. Roughly a fifth of Baby Boomers are also unsure or decline to answer (19.8%).

Younger adults lean the other way. Among Gen Z adults, 50.1% disagree and 41.1% agree, while among Millennials, 51.1% disagree and 44.1% agree.

Along partisan lines, only Pro-Marcos adults agree with the statement by a clear majority (65.5%), while majorities of Pro-Duterte (52.3%) and Pro-Opposition adults (56.7%) disagree.

Independents are nearly evenly divided, with 48.4% agreeing and 44.5% disagreeing.

Momentum Research defines Pro-Opposition adults as those who align with former Vice President Leni Robredo, Sen. Bam Aquino, Sen. Risa Hontiveros, and their allies.

Nearly 3 in 4 favor diplomacy

Momentum Research also asked Filipino adults whether they agree with the statement, “The government should prioritize peaceful dialogue or diplomacy over showing strength against China.”

Almost 3 in 4 adults (73.3%) agree with a more peaceful approach, while 19.1% disagree. Another 7.5% are either unsure or refuse to respond.

Across regions, factions, and generations, a majority of Filipino adults prefer a diplomatic approach over showing strength against China. Support is strongest in Metro Manila (86.9%), among Pro-Opposition adults (76.6%), and among Gen Z adults (79.0%).

Agreement is lowest among Baby Boomers (60.0%), of whom 21.5% are unsure, and in Mindanao (62.8%), where 14.0% are unsure.

In the Visayas, 74.7% agree and 22.1% disagree.

Majority say Philippines is too dependent on others

When asked whether they agree with the statement, “The Philippines is too dependent on other countries for protection against China,” a majority of Filipino adults agree (56.8%), while a third disagree (33.7%).

The remaining 1 in 10 adults (9.5%) are undecided or decline to answer.

The national finding holds across demographic subgroups, except among Baby Boomers, where 44.7% agree, 32.1% disagree, and almost one-fourth (23.2%) are undecided. This is the highest share of unsure adults among all subgroups.

Meanwhile, agreement is highest among Pro-Opposition adults (71.2%), followed by those in Metro Manila (64.3%) and Gen Z adults (63.4%).

In the Visayas, 61.8% agree and 34.1% disagree.

Half say public information is enough

Half of Filipino adults (50%) consider the public information on West Philippine Sea developments sufficient, based on responses to the statement, “The public is given enough information about developments in the West Philippine Sea.”

Another 39.2% say it is not enough, and 10.7% are unsure or decline to answer.

Most regional, factional, and generational subgroups align with the national finding. A few subgroups, however, are relatively divided.

Millennials are one example, where 49.6% agree with the statement that public information on the geopolitical issue is enough, as opposed to 43.9% who disagree.

While a plurality of Baby Boomers agree (42.8%), a quarter of them (25.3%) are also unsure.

Other subgroups with divided opinion on the matter include Independents (48.9% agree, 42.6% disagree) and Filipino adults in Mindanao (43.1% agree, 39.8% disagree).

In the Visayas, 51.5% agree and 42.6% disagree, while 5.9% are unsure or decline to answer.

Table 1. National results at a glance (% of Filipino adults)

About the survey

Conducted from Aug. 18 to 23, the National Momentum Survey was carried out through face-to-face interviews with a nationally representative sample of 1,487 Filipino adults. It has a national margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points at a 95% confidence level.

Subnational margins of error, also at a 95% confidence level, are shown below.

Table 2. Subnational margins of error (95% confidence level)

Momentum Research said the complete survey results are available on its public dashboard at momentumresearch.ph.

The National Momentum Survey is the firm’s flagship initiative, a non-commissioned survey that captures Filipino public opinion on the country’s most pressing sociopolitical issues.

The August 2026 issue also covers perspectives, attitudes, and behaviors on government performance, the impeachment trial, 2028 national election voting intentions, and national issues including Pax Silica, system loss, the minimum wage, the Barangay and Sangguniang Kabataan Elections, and school-related violence.

Momentum Research describes itself as a nonpartisan public opinion research firm.