Filipinos split on public opinion, evidence in impeachment trial

MANILA — Filipino adults are nearly split between public opinion and evidence as the preferred basis for senator-judges’ decisions in the impeachment trial of Vice President Sara Duterte, according to the latest Momentum Research survey.

Public opinion was cited by 36.8% of Filipino adults, while 36.3% said the strength or weakness of the evidence should be the basis of the senator-judges’ decision.

Nationally, 10% said the senator-judges should decide based on their own conscience, while 8% pointed to political allies’ interests. Some 7.1% said they did not know or were not sure, and 1.8% refused to answer.

Significant differences emerged when the results were examined by political faction and region.

For a plurality of pro-Duterte Filipino adults, at 40.9%, public opinion is the top consideration, while evidence is the most preferred basis among the pro-opposition, at 43.4%.

Over a third of Filipinos who identify themselves as pro-Marcos, or 36.4%, believe senator-judges should base their decision on public opinion. Among pro-opposition respondents, 37.7% said the same, along with 35% of independents.

Evidence was chosen by 31.8% of pro-Marcos respondents and 33.4% of pro-Duterte respondents. Roughly 37.9% of independent Filipino adults prefer evidence-based judgment.

Compared with the national share of 10%, almost 1 in 5 pro-Marcos Filipinos, or 18.4%, want senator-judges to base their decision on their own conscience. The figure stood at 11% among pro-Duterte respondents, 9% among the pro-opposition, and 7.8% among independents.

Political allies’ interests were cited by 11% of pro-Duterte respondents, 8.3% of pro-Marcos respondents, 7.2% of the pro-opposition, and 6.7% of independents.

Independents also registered the highest share of undecided respondents at 10.5%, compared with 5% among pro-Marcos, 3.3% among pro-Duterte, and 2% among the pro-opposition. Refusals were at 2.2% among independents, 0.6% among the pro-opposition, 0.3% among pro-Duterte, and 0.1% among pro-Marcos respondents.

The regional results also show differences in how Filipinos view the factors that should guide senator-judges.

Public opinion leads in Metro Manila and the rest of Luzon, where it is cited by 40% and 39.7% of respondents, respectively. In the Visayas and Mindanao, evidence-based judgment ranks higher, at 32.9% and 38.7%, respectively.

Public opinion was named by 31.9% in the Visayas and 33.3% in Mindanao, while evidence was cited by 39.6% in Metro Manila and 35.6% in the rest of Luzon.

Mindanao, Vice President Sara Duterte’s home region, records the highest share of respondents who say political allies’ interests should be considered in the senator-judges’ decision, at 13.9%. This compares with 8.8% in the Visayas, 8.1% in Metro Manila, and 4.7% in Luzon.

Reliance on the senator-judges’ conscience was highest in the rest of Luzon at 12.1%, followed by the Visayas at 10.2%, Metro Manila at 7.9%, and Mindanao at 6.9%.

The Visayas posted the largest share of undecided respondents at 13.6%, ahead of the rest of Luzon at 6.2%, Mindanao at 5.3%, and Metro Manila at 4.1%. Refusals were at 2.6% in the Visayas, 1.9% in Mindanao, 1.8% in the rest of Luzon, and 0.4% in Metro Manila.

Momentum Research said the lack of consensus among Filipinos on their preferred basis of senator-judges’ decision reflects the people’s hope for the impeachment court to be responsive to what they think should be done to the vice president.

Respondents were asked, in Filipino, what should be the basis of the senator-judges’ verdict on whether Vice President Sara is guilty or not guilty at the end of the impeachment trial.

Conducted from July 13 to 16, the National Momentum Survey was carried out through face-to-face interviews with a nationally representative sample of 1,438 Filipino adults. It has a national margin of error of ±2.6 percentage points at a 95% confidence level.

Subnational margins of error are ±7% for the National Capital Region, ±4% for the rest of Luzon covering North, South, and Central Luzon, ±6% for the Visayas, and ±5% for Mindanao, all at a 95% confidence level.

The survey defines pro-opposition adult Filipinos as those who align themselves with former Vice President Leni Robredo, Sen. Risa Hontiveros, Sen. Bam Aquino, and their allies.

The National Momentum Survey is Momentum Research’s flagship initiative and a non-commissioned survey that captures Filipino public opinion on the country’s most pressing sociopolitical issues. Its inaugural July 2026 issue covers perspectives, attitudes, and behaviors on government performance, the impeachment trial, and the 2028 National Elections.

Momentum Research is a nonpartisan public opinion research firm that provides leaders in the public and private sectors with data and insights on the attitudes and trends shaping Philippine politics and society.