FEWER BIRTHS, DEATHS: W. Visayas faces demographic shift with declining population trends — CPD

By Rjay Zuriaga Castor

Western Visayas reported a significant decline in registered births and deaths in 2024, signaling a shift in the region’s demographic landscape with potential implications for economic planning and social services.

The Commission on Population and Development Region 6’s (CPD-6) 2024 Vital Statistics Report, which includes Negros Occidental and Bacolod City, showed that registered live births in the region dropped by 11.7%, from 87,204 in 2023 to 77,000 in 2024.

Negros Occidental recorded the highest number of births at 25,076, followed by Iloilo province with 20,521; Capiz, 8,066; Aklan, 6,949; Antique, 5,091; and Guimaras, 2,272.

Among highly urbanized cities, Bacolod City registered 4,693 births, while Iloilo City had 4,332.

All provinces and cities saw declines, with Capiz posting the largest drop at 16%, followed by Antique at 15.8%.

CPD-6 Director Harold Alfred Marshall suggested that changing fertility preferences, greater access to family planning, and evolving socio-economic priorities may be contributing factors.

Marshall warned, however, that Western Visayas’ total fertility rate (TFR) of 2.2—combined with falling birth registrations—poses risks to the region’s long-term economic vitality.

TFR measures the average number of children a woman would bear over her lifetime under prevailing fertility patterns. The replacement level is 2.1, according to Marshall.

“Reaching below 2.1 would have negative implications, like keeping up with a healthy labor workforce. If there is a small population from the younger generations, we would not have many people to run the economy in the future,” he said in a press conference on Tuesday, Dec. 9.

He added that a shrinking population could also affect the standard of living, as fewer consumers would weaken market demand.

“Hopefully, we can keep a very healthy fertility level of 2.1 and maintain it so that we can have a pool for the labor market in our country,” he said.

LONGER LIVES

The number of registered deaths also dropped by 13%, from 58,659 in 2023 to 51,036 in 2024.

Iloilo province recorded the highest number of deaths at 14,574, followed by Negros Occidental with 14,443; Capiz, 5,298; Aklan, 4,288; and Antique, 4,098. Guimaras reported 1,174.

In urban centers, Bacolod City recorded 3,560 deaths, while Iloilo City had 3,601.

Negros Occidental and Bacolod City saw the largest percentage declines at 23.5% and 24.3%, respectively.

CPD-6 attributed the decrease to improved healthcare services, enhanced disease prevention programs, and heightened public health awareness.

“There is a very good chance that they can still contribute to the labor market, contributing to generating revenues,” Marshall said.

While fewer deaths indicate improved healthcare and longer life expectancy, Marshall said the trend also accelerates the region’s shift toward an aging population, which could increase demand for healthcare, pensions, and social support systems.

As Western Visayas navigates these changes, the CPD-6 chief emphasized the need for proactive planning to ensure inclusive and sustainable growth amid evolving population trends.