Fake political surveys rolling out anew

By Herbert Vego

 

HAVE you ever wondered about Octa Research, which seems to be “now showing” as the unofficial partner of the Department of Health in determining the number of Covid-19 cases, recoveries, and the number of deaths in the Philippines?

As of yesterday, our total number of Covid cases was reported to have hit 989,380. This appears to be confirming the prediction of Octa alluding to one million cases reached by the end of the current month. Wait and see.

Meanwhile, let us quote the lead of a news story aired by ABS-CBN News and quoted by the Manila dailies on April 5, 2021:

“The Philippines’ caseload of coronavirus infections could breach the one million mark by the end of April, the Octa Research said.”

With only five days left before the month ends, that assumption could turn prophetic. That should lend credibility to Octa.

But wait! Are we not supposed to talk about the obviously fake and early surveys on presumed presidential candidates in 2022?

There’s the rub: Octa Research badly needs credibility to convince its target audience henceforth. If it could be convincing on Covid-19 statistics, why not on something it could probably earn much more money from?

Let us go back to an earlier date – February 23, 2021 – when the broadcast and print media surprised us with a simultaneous report on a survey naming presidential daughter and Davao City Mayor Sara Duterte Carpio as the presidential and vice-presidential frontrunner in the forthcoming May 2022.

To quote CNN, “In a study conducted by OCTA Research last Jan. 26-Feb. 1, the President’s daughter topped the poll as 22% of respondents chose her to be the country’s next president.

“Following Duterte is Sen. Grace Poe with 13%, Sen. Manny Pacquiao and former Sen. Bongbong Marcos with 12% each, and Manila Mayor Isko Moreno with 11%.

“Vice President Leni Robredo lagged behind as she only got 5% in the independent survey.

“In the vice-presidential race, Duterte also leads the pack after getting 14% of the survey votes. Moreno and Pacquiao inched closer with 11% each, while Poe only has 10%.”

There were no details in that news to substantiate why the alleged 1,200 face-to-face respondents nationwide had picked Sara over the other possible candidates; and nothing on whoever funded the survey. Still, common sense assumes that the result had to be what was paid for.

It would no longer be surprising if Octa Research joins the ranks of Social Weather Stations (SWS) and Pulse Asia that are already “notorious” in predicting front-runners in national elections.

In fact, it has already beaten Pulse Asia to the draw. It was only on the 22^nd of the current month that Pulse Asia published its near-identical result of its alleged Feb. 22-March 3 survey  among 2,400 respondents kuno. Here are excerpts from a Manila daily’s report:

“Davao City Mayor Sara Duterte is again the top bet of Filipinos among probable presidential candidates in the 2022 elections, the latest Pulse Asia survey showed.

“The poll said 27% of respondents prefer the First Daughter over other possible candidates. She was followed by former Senator Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. (13%), Senator Grace Poe (12%), Manila Mayor Francisco “Isko Moreno” Domagoso (12%), and Senator Manny Pacquiao (11%).

“Of the 12 possible candidates for vice president, Moreno led the list with 16%, but Pacquiao and Duterte were close with 15%. They’re followed by Senate President Vicente Sotto III (11%), Marcos (11%), Senator Bong Go (9%), Taguig City-Pateros Rep. Alan Peter Cayetano (7%), and Sorsogon Governor Francis Escudero (7%).”

Pulse Asia did not even mention Vice-President Leni Robredo as a contender for any of the two positions.

Expect the SWS to also trumpet soon Madam Sara as its “No. 1” among her dad’s aspiring successors.

As to why the supposedly credible mainstream media willingly trumpet the survey results, we can only presume that the “advertising price” offered by the unnamed sponsor is right.

I can only shake my head at the way commercial political pollsters had been mind-conditioning the public, all aimed at leading Smartmatic (constant provider of the counting machines) and the Commission on Elections into coming out with the as-predicted winners.

Are we that naïve to believe in the same pollsters that upscale the approval and trust ratings of President Duterte to as high as 91 percent?

I wonder why the “losers” in the 2019 senatorial elections never questioned the incredible results that rendered as “winners” 10 of the 12 frontrunners of SWS’s survey.

The SWS’ last survey on the 2019 senatorial derby showed  Cynthia Villar, Grace Poe, Bong Go, Pia Cayetano, Sonny Angara, Ronald dela Rosa, Lito Lapid, Bong Revilla, Nancy Binay,  Koko Pimentel, Jinggoy Estrada and Bam Aquino.

Only Estrada and Aquino lost.

Don’t you find it eerie that with 62 candidates running for senators, a commercial pollster randomly interviewing 1,200 different respondents on a base of 60 million voters could predict the winners?

From this experience, has the opposition candidates learned their lesson?

Let us wait and see.

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JUST ASKING

DID I hear right that the lawyers of Panay Electric Co. (PECO) — having lost in their motion for reconsideration against the ruling of the Supreme Court affirming the constitutionality of the franchise law (RA 11212) awarding to MORE Electric and Power Corp. (MORE Power) the authority to be sole power distributor in Iloilo in the next 25 years – now demand payment of the P481,842,450 payable to PECO as “just compensation”?

We hope to discuss this matter with MORE President Roel Z. Castro. Abangan ang susunod na kabanata.