Even The Mightiest Political Dynasties Fall Silent—and Fade Away

Some dynasties fade away from politics and public consciousness due to lack of successors, defeats to emerging clans or even “erosion of narrative.”

Once among the who’s who in Philippine politics for decades, the Laurels are now a “defunct” dynasty. The Aquinos and Osmeñas are dormant but are also close to disappearing. The Enriles are dormant, but are in government.

Since 2001, no member of the Laurel clan has been elected in public office, according to Dr. Julio Teehankee, political science professor at the De La Salle University.

After serving as vice president to President Corazon “Cory” Aquino in her coup-besieged administration, Salvador “Doy” Laurel ran for president but lost to Fidel Ramos in 1992. He died in 2004.

Laurel’s father, Jose P. Laurel, was president during the Japanese Occupation in the 1940s, and grandfather, Sotero Laurel, was a member of the Malolos Congress in 1898.

“It’s a failure of dynastic succession,’’ Teehanke told the Philippine Center for Investigative Journalism, citing his ongoing research, “Dynastic Cycles: The Rise and Fall of Political Families in the Philippines.”

Besides, the Laurels have also focused on running the family-owned Lyceum of the Philippines University, he added.

The Laurels as well as the Aquinos, Osmeñas and the Ortegas fall under the category of durable dynasties that had been active since the Spanish or American colonial period until the post-war period, according to Teehankee.

‘Erosion’ of Aquino narrative

The Aquino dynasty has also turned dormant and is now teetering “dangerously close to becoming defunct,” the political analyst said.

For the first time since 1986, when Cory Aquino was swept to power in the heady aftermath of the 1986 Edsa people’s revolt, none among the Aquinos is in elective office, he said.

In 2016, when then President Simeon Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino III left Malacañang, his cousin Paolo Benigno “Bam” Aquino IV was about to begin the second half of his term in the Senate (2016-2019). Bam lost a reelection bid in 2019.

Since then, none has held a national position, although some of their relatives may have been elected to local positions in Malabon City. Their decline was hastened by the “erosion” of the Aquino narrative, Teehankee said.

“The Aquino clan is the bearer of the Edsa narrative. And I think one of the reasons why they lost the sheen and support – the sheen of the brand and the support of the people – is that the public has gotten tired of the narrative,’’ he said.

“In other words, for more than three decades under the post-Edsa regime, we have not reached the promise of development under a democratic system,’’ he added.

Aquino was succeeded in Malacañang by Rodrigo Duterte, who birthed a dominant dynasty as a tough-talking, anti-crime mayor of Davao City after the 1986 revolution. His daughter Sara is the country’s Vice President, while his son Sebastian is Davao City mayor and son Paolo is a congressman.

Duterte is now facing charges for crimes against humanity before the International Criminal Court in The Hague, Netherlands, over his brutal crackdown on drugs that killed tens of thousands of suspects.

“Then came what we call authoritarian nostalgia. ‘You told us that in a democracy, our lot will improve, and there will be order. But nothing happened. So, let’s go back to authoritarian, iron-fisted rule’,’’ Teehanke explained.

The Aquino narrative was “eroded’’ by the Duterte narrative which in turn “paved the way for the second coming of the Marcoses,” he added.

“In the beginning the Dutertes served as John the Baptist in the second coming of the Marcos’ dynasty,’’ he said. Duterte allowed a hero’s burial for the elder Marcos at the Libingan ng mga Bayani in November 2016.

In 2022, Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and Sara Duterte teamed up and captured the country’s top two positions. In 2024, they severed their ties over congressional inquiries into her alleged misuse of government confidential and intelligence funds.

Political comeback

But there’s more than meets the eye about the Aquinos’ political decline.

After Cory Aquino’s term ended in 1992, immediate family members agreed not to rejoin politics, grandson Francis “Kiko” Aquino Dee explained.

But then in 1998, Noynoy filed his candidacy for a congressional seat in Tarlac province. In private, his mother objected to his planned run, but later relented after years of back and forth on the matter, Dee said.

None in the family saw Cory Aquino’s death in August 2009 – and Noynoy’s successful run for the presidency in May 2010 – coming.

In 2016, at the end of Noynoy’s watch, the family agreed to return to being “private citizens’’ and focus on protecting the Aquino narrative from historical disinformation, according to Dee, executive director of the Ninoy and Cory Aquino Foundation.

“If someone else outside the Ninoy-Cory line is running for public office, we can’t stop him or her. That’s their decision and we respect that,” he told PCIJ.

Bam Aquino is running for senator in the May 12 elections.

“I’m sure there will be an Aquino who will soon emerge. There will always be an Aquino in Philippine politics,” Teehankee said. “If Bam wins, they’re back.”

The Aquinos trace their family line to patriarch Servillano Aquino, a Katipunero who fought in the revolution against Spain, rose to become a general, and served as delegate to the Malolos Congress in 1898.

‘Failure of dynastic succession’

Like the Aquinos, the Osmeñas – whose patriarch Sergio Osmeña was president from 1944 to 1946 – have also declined over the years and become dormant, according to Teehankee.

Sergio Osmeña Jr. held various elected positions in Cebu, including governor and mayor, before serving in the Senate from 1966 to 1972.

His son, Sergio Osmeña III, was also elected to the Senate, serving from 1995 to 2007 and again from 2010 to 2016. He later lost his Senate bids in both 2016 and 2019, and was recently “perpetually disqualified” from running for public office after failing to file his Statement of Contributions and Expenses in two consecutive elections.

John Osmeña, a cousin of Sergio III, also served in the Senate for multiple terms: 1970–1972, 1987–1995, and 1998–2004. He capped his long political career by serving as mayor of Toledo City, Cebu, from 2013 to 2019.

Sergio III’s brother, Tomas “Tommy” Osmeña, last served as mayor of Cebu City from 2016-2019, losing a reelection bid in 2019. His wife took a crack at reclaiming the post in 2022, with no success.

Before the Garcias took power, Cebu had been the stomping ground of the Osmeñas. Now, no prominent clan member is in power.

“It can be both overstaying in power and failure of dynastic succession,’’ Teehankee said of the Osmeñas. “They are a durable dynasty that has become dormant.”

He agreed with observations that none of the children of brothers John and Lito, former Cebu governor, (now both deceased), and their cousins, brothers Sergio III and Tommy, had expressed interest in local politics.

Yet another dominant dynasty – the Enriles – had also become dormant, but its most prominent member, Juan Ponce Enrile Sr., remained in government.

Enrile Sr. completed his last term in the Senate in 2016, the same year his son Juan Ponce “Jack” Enrile Jr. lost a reelection bid in the House of Representatives after two terms.

President Marcos Jr., however, tapped Enrile Sr. to be his chief presidential legal counsel in 2022, and then appointed his daughter Katrina Ponce Enrile as administrator and chief executive officer of the Cagayan Economic Zone Authority in 2023.

“They’re dormant,” Teehankee said. “But they still have the resources and connection to make a comeback.”

Dormant with political clout

But for Danilo Arao, co-convenor of elections watchdog Kontra Daya, this has not diminished the Enriles’ political clout.

“Of course elective positions are important for the dynasties, but you know being appointed is just as important. In fact, it can be crucial as they try to consolidate their power and influence,” Arao  told PCIJ.

Ma. Ela Atienza, political science professor at UP Diliman, agreed: “If we take a look at how influential they are, we can say that the posts they’re occupying are crucial, which they can use later on, if they’re still interested in returning to electoral competition.”

From 1972 to 1981, then defense chief Enrile enforced martial law, but withdrew support from Marcos – along with then armed forces vice chief of staff Ramos — during the 1986 revolt.

Teehankee cited other reasons why dynasties end:

• They are challenged and defeated by another dynasty, like the Crisologos by the Singsons in Ilocos Sur.
• They are defeated by a non-dynasty, like the Pinedas by priest Eduardo “Among Ed” Panlilio (governor, 2007-2010) in Pampanga; the Dys by Grace Padaca (governor, 2004-2010) in Isabela, and the Ecleos by Arlene “Kaka” Bag-ao (district representative, 2013-2019, and governor, 2019-2022) in Dinagat Islands.
• They are beset by intra-family competition such as the Binays in Makati, the Abayas and Aguinaldos in Cavite, among others.
• They have overstayed in power, or extended their political base just like the Estradas who were shut out from local and national positions in 2019. (Patriarch Joseph Estrada was elected San Juan mayor, senator, vice president and president, and then as Manila mayor.)

Based on Teehankee’s research, there were 319 political families in 2019. Of these, 35 percent were durable, 39 percent dominant, 16 percent dormant, and 10 percent defunct.

If a dynasty loses in two or more elections, it’s considered defunct. Any losses fewer than that make one dormant, he explained.

The 2019 midterms was a watershed moment as it saw the defeat of more than 32 candidates from clans such as the Estradas, Eusebios, Rodriguezes, Ecleos, Floirendo-Lagdameos, Emanos, Duranos, Fariñases and Plazas, among others.

But in 2022, the dynasties led by the “UniTeam” of the Marcos and Duterte clans managed to consolidate and regain their foothold.

“Now that there’s a rift between the Marcoses and Dutertes, this provides a critical window of opportunity for reform-minded and progressive candidates to seize the moment and try to get the support of the people to oust these overstaying, fat, obese dynasties,” Teehankee said.