Emerging political landscape

There is a reconfiguration of the political scene as the impeachment trial of Vice President Sara Duterte is wrapping up. The emerging political landscape appears odd and captivating. It seems the political strategy of the present administration is working.

Based on recent developments, the Bongbong Marcos (BBM) administration is executing its plan on schedule. The writing on the wall is too obvious to ignore.

At the outset, House Marcos suffered a setback when House Duterte seized control of the Senate right after the second impeachment complaint against Sara Duterte was delivered to the upper chamber. It was a counterattack that caught the administration by surprise after the carefully staged and managed second impeachment was a success in the lower house. For a while, it looked like the Dutertes would once again scuttle the impeachment trial of the vice president and bury it for good. The path to the presidency for Sara Duterte looked clear and inevitable.

BBM had to exhaust his political capital and resources to outflank the Dutertes. Gradually, he regained the political initiative and wrested control of the Senate from his erstwhile ally. He is on the verge of completing phase one of his political project.

Removing Sara Duterte from the political scene is phase one of BBM’s overarching political design. The only constitutional path to this is impeachment. Conviction in an impeachment trial can result in removal from office and disqualification from holding public office. Preventing her from running for the presidency is a must for BBM. Though on a downward trajectory, she remains a front-runner in pre-election surveys.

From all indications, the administration is on track to achieve its impeachment goal. Apart from regaining control of the Senate, the administration successfully reduced the threshold for conviction from 16 to 14 votes. Had the 16-vote threshold held, it would have been a huge task for the administration to secure a conviction since the hard-core Duterte senators had the numbers to block it.

Immediately after the conviction threshold was lowered, the Senate majority increased its numbers by pirating Mark Villar from the minority camp. Mark Villar’s defection increased the majority’s numbers from 13 to 14. Is this confluence of events pure coincidence or the product of a carefully orchestrated political maneuver?

The next political episode caught everyone, including Sara Duterte’s defense team, by surprise. After an extensive presentation of evidence on the fourth and first articles of impeachment, the prosecution dropped three articles, including the unpresented Article III — bribery. The Senate impeachment court will now decide only one article, Article II, which concerns unexplained wealth.

With only one article left, the impeachment trial of Sara Duterte has been shortened. The defense will present its evidence on the lone article of impeachment in November, and the Senate will render a verdict in December, likely before the Christmas break.

Given the confluence of events, conviction is the likely outcome of the impeachment trial. The administration has the votes to convict, with its calendar on schedule. Sara Duterte is expected to be removed from the vice presidency and will probably no longer be a presidential contender in the 2028 election as 2026 draws to a close. Even the Dutertes and their Senate allies are drawing the same conclusion.

Talks in the Senate have shifted from impeachment to the choice of the next vice president. Duterte-allied senators are already warning administration senators not to accept the vice presidential post out of delicadeza, as if these DDS senators have it.

The Dutertes themselves are resigned to the reality that the vice president will be convicted. Sara Duterte publicly shared the political advice of their mother — that she return to local politics, with her younger brother Baste Duterte moving into national politics.

Come 2027, there will be a rearrangement of the political scene. It is expected that Sara Duterte will no longer be a variable in the political equation of the 2028 presidential race. Her apparent replacement is none other than her brother Baste Duterte. The Davao City mayor has lately been stepping into the limelight. His likely partner is Robin Padilla, who is now being groomed as Baste Duterte’s vice presidential candidate. Consistent with the Duterte narrative, the Baste-Robin tandem is a macho slate with law and order as its battle cry.

Having achieved the first phase of his political project, BBM will focus on phase two — ensuring that his backed candidate wins the presidency in 2028. Eliminating Sara Duterte from the 2028 presidential race does not remove the Dutertes from the contest. Defeating the candidate of House Duterte and securing a win is BBM’s ultimate goal.

BBM, however, faces a serious problem. The administration has no winnable candidate at the moment. Gibo Teodoro and Jonvic Remulla lack the charisma and appeal to win the race. Baste Duterte has an edge over them as of now. Scouting for a winnable candidate remains BBM’s grave concern.

Given the Dutertes’ viable chance of returning to power despite Sara Duterte’s removal from the race, the administration might turn to its erstwhile opponent, the Pink movement, to strike a deal. Leni Robredo remains competitive in the surveys despite saying she is not running for a national post. Unique political circumstances and opportunities could still change Leni Robredo’s mind. The only way for the administration to prevent a Duterte comeback is to form a broad anti-Duterte coalition with a single candidate to fight one-on-one with Baste Duterte. Fragmented anti-Duterte forces will strengthen the chances of the Dutertes returning to Malacañang in 2028.

The crystallization and solidification of political alignments, along with the polarization of forces between pro- and anti-Duterte camps, define the emerging political configuration.