EATING MORE BUT GROWING LESS: Rice deficit widens as PHL farms stagnate

By Francis Allan L. Angelo

Filipinos now consume 2.3 million metric tons more rice than the country produces—an 18% shortfall as of 2022—highlighting the Philippines’ deepening dependence on imported grain despite decades of public investments aimed at boosting domestic output.

This alarming gap is the focus of a new study by researchers from Ateneo de Manila University’s John Gokongwei School of Management and Department of Environmental Science.

Drawing on data from the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA), the researchers found that national rice production has stagnated since 2017 even as demand continues to rise.

The study, Understanding Rice Production Stagnation in the Philippines: Regional Evidence and Development Implications, was published in PLOS One and is available via Ateneo de Manila University’s Archīum Ateneo repository.

Over the past decade, total production of palay (unmilled rice) grew just 9%, from 18.4 million metric tons in 2013 to 20.1 million metric tons in 2023. In contrast, rice consumption surged, outpacing production year after year.

The expansion of rice farmland has been minimal—just 1%, from 4.7 million to 4.8 million hectares during the same period—while average yields increased only 7%, from 3.9 to 4.2 metric tons per hectare.

Urbanization not the main culprit

Challenging a common assumption, the study found little evidence that urban sprawl is the main driver of agricultural stagnation. Instead, the authors identified a complex mix of contributing factors: limited farmland expansion, slow yield growth, recurrent climate shocks, and uneven public investments across regions.

“The perception that cities are eating up farmland doesn’t fully explain the lack of growth,” said lead author Henry A. Bartelet. “What we see instead is a patchwork of success and decline depending on the region.”

Regional contrasts: Some rise, others fall

From 2018 to 2023, two regions saw steep declines in rice output. The Cordillera Administrative Region (CAR) recorded a 15% drop, while Eastern Visayas (Region VIII) saw an 11% decline.

Both regions experienced reduced farmland, stagnant yields, and frequent typhoons and droughts. Farmers in these areas also shifted land use toward higher-value crops like coconuts.

In contrast, the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM) posted a 40% surge in rice output—the largest relative gain nationally.

Cagayan Valley (Region II) and Ilocos Region (Region I) also showed strong growth, increasing output by 27% and 16%, respectively.

The gains in these regions were attributed to expanded irrigation systems, the adoption of high-yield seeds, mechanization, and targeted government programs.

In BARMM, the Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries, and Agrarian Reform (MAFAR) played a key role, working with the Food and Agriculture Organization to boost both yields and farmland coverage.

Peace and productivity in BARMM

BARMM’s rice production grew from 0.64 million metric tons in 2018 to 0.90 million in 2023. Notably, irrigated production nearly doubled during this period. This growth has been linked not just to government intervention but also to improved political stability in the region.

“The peace dividends are real,” said co-author Alenn Jhulia D. Prodigalidad. “With improved governance and dedicated agricultural investment, BARMM is proving what’s possible.”

The RCEF Seed Program, part of the national Rice Competitiveness Enhancement Fund under Republic Act 11203, has also played a role in providing certified inbred seeds to BARMM farmers. In 2023, rice processing systems were added through the RCEF Mechanization Program.

Yields stagnate in the Visayas

While Luzon and Mindanao saw modest yield growth, average yields in the Visayas remained flat over the past decade.

In 2013, the Visayas recorded average yields of 3.4 metric tons per hectare; in 2023, the number had not budged.

By comparison, Luzon increased yields from 4.2 to 4.6 metric tons per hectare during the same period.

Among the Visayan regions, Eastern Visayas experienced both shrinking farmland and static productivity.

Natural disasters played a major role, but the study also pointed to competition from more profitable crops like coconuts as a factor discouraging rice farming.

RCEF not enough for struggling regions

Although the Rice Tariffication Law (RA 11203) replaced import quotas with tariffs and created the RCEF to improve farm productivity, the study found that national programs have not delivered equally across regions.

“The RCEF has certainly helped in places like Ilocos and BARMM, but it hasn’t been enough to stop production declines in other regions,” said co-author Janelle S. Dy.

The fund, recently extended until 2031 through RA 12078, provides farmers with hybrid seeds, mechanized equipment, credit, and training.

However, the Commission on Audit and other reviews have flagged issues with delayed disbursements and underused equipment, especially in areas like CAR and Eastern Visayas.

Structural gaps persist

One of the study’s key conclusions is that stagnation is not inevitable. While nationwide growth is slow, the regional disparities show that with the right support, significant gains are possible.

However, success hinges on more than seed distribution or machines—it requires integrated policy support, better infrastructure, and localized strategies.

The authors called for:

• Expanding irrigation systems in regions with available water resources (e.g., the Cagayan River Basin in Region II).
• Strengthening regional agricultural agencies, such as MAFAR in BARMM, to tailor interventions.
• Providing climate-resilient infrastructure and insurance to protect farmers from disasters.
• Offering financial incentives to keep rice competitive against more profitable alternatives like coconuts.
• Monitoring and evaluating RCEF outcomes to ensure efficiency and transparency.

“If these approaches are scaled and tailored across regions,” said co-author Jan Gabriel N. Manzano, “we believe local production can increase meaningfully—and the country can reduce its dependence on imported rice.”

A shifting policy landscape

Rice remains the most politically sensitive commodity in the Philippines. For decades, the country maintained quantitative import restrictions (QRs) to protect domestic producers. That changed in 2019 with the passage of the Rice Tariffication Law, which replaced QRs with tariffs and allowed greater private sector imports.

While the move lowered rice prices in the short term—helping consumers—it also exposed farmers to international competition and fluctuating global prices. Critics argue that without strong domestic support, the law risks undermining food sovereignty.

“Imports can fill short-term gaps,” Bartelet said. “But in the long term, we need resilient domestic production to ensure food security.”

The authors warn that if current trends continue, the Philippines could face even greater dependency on imports and more frequent price shocks driven by global supply volatility.

However, they also express cautious optimism. “We’ve seen what works—BARMM, Ilocos, and Cagayan Valley offer blueprints,” said Prodigalidad. “The question is whether we can replicate and scale those successes.”