Duterte leads but Robredo competitive in 2028 race, poll finds

By Francis Allan L. Angelo

Vice President Sara Duterte holds an early lead in the 2028 presidential race, but former Vice President Leni Robredo remains a strong contender, according to a Pulse Asia survey commissioned by the Stratbase Group.

In a hypothetical two-way matchup, Duterte drew 51 percent against Robredo’s 41 percent, a 10-point national lead.

Eight percent of respondents said they were undecided or refused to say who they would vote for.

The survey, the Stratbase Group’s first commissioned poll on the 2028 elections, was conducted May 3-7, 2026 among 1,500 respondents and carried a nationwide margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points.

Filipinos expressed an unusually high level of interest in the elections even two years out, with 83 percent saying they were interested and 61 percent identifying as “truly interested.”

Another 23 percent said they were somewhat interested, 9 percent could not say whether they were interested or disinterested, and 7 percent said they were disinterested.

Interest ran highest among Class E voters at 92 percent, in Mindanao at 96 percent, and in the Visayas at 90 percent.

Duterte’s overall lead was anchored in Mindanao, where she posted a 91 percent preference rate against Robredo’s 7 percent.

“Historically, no presidential candidate sustains numbers as high as 91 percent throughout an entire national campaign,” said Stratbase Group founder Prof. Victor Andres “Dindo” Manhit.

He noted that should Robredo run, the gap could narrow by improving her standing in Mindanao and winning over undecided voters.

The two were in a statistical tie in the National Capital Region, with Duterte at 48 percent and Robredo at 46 percent.

Robredo, now Naga City mayor, led commandingly in Balance Luzon, outpacing Duterte by 22 percentage points, 55 percent to 33 percent.

In the Visayas, Duterte held a slim lead of 50 percent to Robredo’s 46 percent.

“What this survey also underscores is the importance of building a solid and united opposition. The presidential race two-way contest to win an absolute majority mandate for the Presidency,” Manhit added.

In the vice-presidential race, Sen. Erwin Tulfo led nationally with 46 percent against Sen. Robinhood Padilla’s 38 percent.

Tulfo secured majority support in the National Capital Region at 54 percent, Balance Luzon at 52 percent, and the Visayas at 63 percent.

In a separate matchup against Sen. Bong Go, Tulfo trailed at 42 percent to Go’s 47 percent, a 5-point gap that Stratbase attributed to the Mindanao vote.

Tulfo, however, led Go in Balance Luzon, 52 percent to 30 percent, and in the Visayas, 49 percent to 46 percent.

Tulfo’s appeal was strongest among Class E voters, where he secured 51 percent against Go’s 44 percent.

On trust ratings of select political figures, Tulfo posted the highest at 63 percent, followed by Go at 57 percent and Robredo at 53 percent.

Padilla got 46 percent, while Davao City Mayor Sebastian Duterte got 37 percent.

“If the opposition and reform-oriented blocs can rally behind a unified ticket, these figures show there is a credible pathway toward consolidating the anti-Duterte vote into a competitive national coalition,” Manhit said.

The survey also found the internet topping Filipinos’ sources of news at 83 percent, followed by television at 64 percent, family and relatives at 31 percent, radio at 27 percent, and newspapers at 3 percent.

Within the internet category, Facebook led at 75 percent, followed by YouTube at 38 percent, TikTok at 11 percent, and online news sites at 10 percent.

“The battle for public opinion in 2028 will be fought largely online. Candidates and political movements that fail to engage voters in the digital space risk losing relevance, especially among younger and highly connected Filipinos,” Manhit warned.

“At the same time, the continued influence of television, family networks, and radio reminds us that campaigns must still communicate across multiple platforms and communities if they hope to build a truly national constituency,” he added.