Du30’s long game

By Artchil B. Fernandez

Finally, the widely anticipated and expected self-fulling prophecy in Philippine politics happened this week. The concluding and last episode of the months-long Du30 Drama Serye (DDS) might air on Nov 15, 2021.

In the middle of the week, a carefully scripted move, setting the stage for the final episode of DDS was set in motion. Baste Duterte, current vice-mayor of Davao City went to the local Comelec office early in the day to withdraw his certification of candidacy (COC) for reelection. He said he was only following the order of his elder sister, Davao City Mayor Sara Duterte.

Later in the afternoon, it was the turn of Sara Duterte to appear at the local Comelec office to withdraw the COC for her reelection bid. She announced her brother Baste Duterte will replace her as candidate for the mayoral post. The Davao City mayor did not disclose the reason for the withdrawal or her political plans.

This development is a “surprise” that has not caught anyone by surprise. The whole country knows months ago that Sara Duterte will run for a national post, forceful denials notwithstanding. Sara Duterte will run for a national post as everyone had known but which one – president or vice-president?

If Sara Duterte guns for the presidency, it means the Dutertes refused to bend the knee to the Marcoses. Why give the throne to the Marcoses when they can have it for themselves? It also reveals Du30’s frantic effort, moving heaven and earth to anoint her daughter as successor is a success.

Of late, Du30 had been castigating the International Criminal Court (ICC) in his public speeches showing he is really worried and deeply concerned with the ongoing investigation of the international tribunal on his “war on drugs” for crimes against humanity. He can only be assured of the Philippine government’s full protection from prosecution if his daughter succeeds him to the presidency.

It is also possible Sara Duterte will seek the vice president post in tandem with Bongbong Marcos as the standard-bearer. Sara Duterte’s vice-presidential run could either be an expression of rebellion to her father or an indication the Dutertes capitulated to the Marcoses.

If Sara Duterte’s slide to the vice-presidency is her way of irritating her father, it hints that the intra-family war is not resolved. The Bato de la Rosa-Bong Go tandem will contest the election and the epic father-daughter clash will be the new national teleserye in the coming months.

If the Bongbong Marcos-Sara Duterte partnership has the blessing of Du30, this implies Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo’s mediation bore fruit, making her the ultimate matchmaker if not the kingmaker. The Bongbong Marcos-Sara Duterte pairing signifies that political survival is the primordial concern of the Marcos-Arroyo-Duterte (MAD) axis of evil. Faced with the real possibility of defeat if they splinter, they were forced to unite to secure their political future. If this is the scenario that will unfurl, the Bato de la Rosa-Bong Go tandem is doomed. Is this what Bong Go was implying when he said following Sara Duterte’s withdrawal from the mayoral race that his vice-presidential bid is now imperiled?

However, under the above scenario, it is also probable Bato de la Rosa and Bong Go may still run as decoy candidates with the Bongbong Marcos-Sara Duterte tandem as the de facto candidates of the administration. In this setup, the Bato de la Rosa-Bong Go duo as the “official” administration candidates absorbs all the issues against the administration thus shielding the Bongbong Marcos-Sara Duterte team from brickbats.

Is it game over tomorrow with Sara Duterte as his father’s anointed successor or a Bongbong Marcos-Sara partnership brokered by GMA and sanctified by Du30 or a surprise Bato-Sara tandem or Sara as the common vice president of Bato and Bongbong? Least people forget Bongbong Marcos faces disqualification.

Former Supreme Court Justice Antonio Carpio gave a compelling argument for the disqualification of Bongbong Marcos, citing two major reasons. “First, Section 12 of the Omnibus Election Code (OEC) disqualifies any candidate who has been convicted by final judgment of ‘any offense for which he has been sentenced to a penalty of more than eighteen months or for a crime involving moral turpitude.’ Second, Section 253(c) of the Tax Code provides that ‘any public officer’ who is convicted of any crime penalized by the Tax Code is ‘perpetually disqualified from holding any public office, to vote and to participate in any election.’ Either one of these two grounds is sufficient to disqualify Marcos Jr.,” the former high court jurist contends.

While one may argue that Du30’s control of the Comelec and Supreme Court will save Bongbong Marcos’ candidacy, the same can be used to eliminate him from the competition. Du30 may eventually double-cross the Marcoses, allowing Bongbong Marcos to run for president only to be disqualified near Election Day. In this scenario, if Sara Duterte is the administration’s presidential candidate, Bongbong Marcos’ supporters are ripe for the picking. This could be Du30’s long game and the ultimate end game is, the daughter becomes his eventual successor.

It’s too early to say if the Du30 Drama Serye (DDS) ends tomorrow. Whatever unfolds – Sara Duterte running for president or vice president, either of Bongbong or Bato, it could be a detour or another chapter in this long political game.

This is the Game of Thrones Philippine version. Some characters are eliminated early while other key players are liquidated late in the game. In the War of Roses (which inspired GOT), Warwick the Kingmaker in the end lost his head. Who will end up as Warwick in the Philippine edition – Du30, GMA, BBM, or all of them?