Drier months ahead as Iloilo braces for El Niño through 2027
By Mariela Angella Oladive
ILOILO CITY — Iloilo province has officially entered a dry spell condition, prompting authorities to urge residents to conserve water amid a strengthening El Niño.
In an advisory issued Nov. 1, the provincial government said the development follows the latest assessment of the Department of Science and Technology-Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (DOST-PAGASA) on the warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean.
A dry spell refers to an extended period of below-normal rainfall, resulting in reduced water availability.
Drought, meanwhile, is a more prolonged and severe shortage of water that can affect agriculture, livelihoods, and communities.
The latest provincial situation report recorded 3,792.93 hectares of affected rice areas in seven municipalities, with estimated agricultural losses reaching PHP 124.26 million.
A total of 5,956 farmers were affected in Lambunao, San Enrique, Dueñas, Banate, Janiuay, Bingawan, and Lemery.
Dueñas was the first municipality in Iloilo to declare a state of calamity due to the dry spell.
About 190 hectares of farmland in the town were affected after nearly three months of insufficient rainfall.
Acting Provincial Agriculturist Geron Magbanua said the limited rainfall was not enough to meet the water requirements of agricultural lands.
He said the Provincial Agriculture Office had prepared assistance for farmers ahead of the anticipated strong El Niño.
PHP 82 MILLION QRF ON STANDBY
The provincial government is also strengthening its preparations through the Provincial El Niño Task Force, created by Gov. Arthur Defensor Jr. under Executive Order No. 67, Series of 2026.
Provincial Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Office chief Cornelio Salinas earlier said the province could tap its PHP 82 million Quick Response Fund (QRF) if the situation worsens and a state of calamity is declared.
The fund, however, is not exclusively intended for El Niño response.
Under Republic Act No. 10121, or the Philippine Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Act of 2010, the QRF serves as a standby allocation for immediate relief and recovery operations during disasters.
The law sets aside 30 percent of a local government’s disaster risk reduction and management fund for the QRF.
Salinas said the provincial government would also coordinate with national government agencies if local resources prove insufficient.
The task force is focusing on five sectors: food security, water security, energy security, health security, and public safety.
For agriculture, the provincial government is preparing measures to limit crop losses and protect the livelihoods of farmers and fisherfolk.
Salinas said a provincewide state of calamity declaration would depend on further assessments.
He noted that the impact of drought varies across communities and sectors.
He urged residents to conserve water, observe health advisories, and take precautions during periods of extreme heat.
DRIER MONTHS AHEAD
PAGASA expects El Niño to strengthen toward the end of 2026 and continue into the first half of 2027.
The weather bureau forecast below-normal rainfall for Western Visayas in October and November.
Much drier conditions are expected from December through March.
El Niño is characterized by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.
In the Philippines, it typically brings reduced rainfall and increases the likelihood of dry spells and drought.
PAGASA has clarified that El Niño does not mean the complete absence of rain.
However, longer and more frequent dry periods could further strain water supplies and agricultural production.
Iloilo experienced similar conditions in 2024, when water shortages affected 444 barangays in 16 municipalities, and 265,901 residents, according to earlier Daily Guardian reports.
Agricultural damage during the 2024 El Niño reached PHP 1.025 billion as of April 26, affecting 23,699 farmers.
On May 14, 2024, the provincial board placed Iloilo under a state of calamity.
It approved a PHP 61 million QRF, with an additional PHP 15 million for emergency response.
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