DOST-UPLB builds rice climate warning system amid El Niño

ILOILO CITY — Filipino rice farmers could face significant yield losses as temperatures rise, prompting government-backed researchers to develop an early warning and forecasting system aimed at helping smallholders adjust planting, water management and other farm practices to climate extremes.

Initial results from a University of the Philippines Los Baños-led project found that a 1-degree Celsius increase in average temperature could reduce dry-season rice yields by 5.94% for rainfed farms and 4.06% for irrigated farms.

During the wet season, rainfed rice yields were projected to decline by 6.65% for every 1-degree Celsius increase, while irrigated rice yields could fall by 5.35%.

The project is being undertaken by UPLB in cooperation with the Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and Huazhong Agricultural University through the Joint Research Program of the Department of Science and Technology and the Ministry of Science and Technology of the People’s Republic of China.

The researchers are examining and applying short-term climate forecasting techniques to develop more cost-effective and sustainable adaptation strategies for smallholder rice farmers.

The joint research project seeks to develop a forecasting system paired with optimized agronomic practices that can guide Philippine rice growers and agricultural policymakers.

The initiative also supports DOST Secretary Renato U. Solidum Jr.’s push to improve the productivity and resilience of the agriculture and aquaculture sectors through research and development.

UPLB is developing data-driven climate early warning and adaptation recommendations using models covering selected rice-producing provinces.

The project is being implemented in Pangasinan, Isabela, Nueva Ecija, Oriental Mindoro, Camarines Sur, Iloilo and Bohol to simulate rice growth, analyze climate stresses and develop optimization strategies for each province.

During its first year, the project consolidated long-term rice statistics, climate reanalysis data, El Niño-Southern Oscillation indicators and damage records.

The study also produced empirical evidence of the strong negative effect of El Niño events on dry-season rice yields while identifying temperature and rainfall thresholds that affect dry- and wet-season production differently.

UPLB is also developing and implementing core analytical and modeling tools for rainfed rice cultivation systems.

Dr. Rubenito M. Lampayan, professor at the UPLB Institute of Agricultural and Biosystems Engineering, reported that the project had completed an R-based extension and provincial-level operationalization of the ORYZA rice growth model developed by the International Rice Research Institute.

The team also established climate-yield panel models to quantify the effects of temperature and rainfall on yields and conducted ENSO relationship analyses linking climate variability to rice yield patterns.

ORYZA is a crop simulation model developed by IRRI with Wageningen University and Research that is used to analyze rice growth, water and nitrogen management, climate stresses and other production conditions.

Initial results showed that warming significantly reduces rice yields during both El Niño and La Niña seasons.

A 1-degree Celsius increase in average temperature was found to reduce dry-season yields by 5.94% for rainfed rice and 4.06% for irrigated rice.

During the wet season, rainfed yields were projected to drop by 6.65% for every 1-degree Celsius increase, while irrigated yields could decline by 5.35%.

The project also developed a Climate and Rice Yield Prediction Report for 2026-2027, presenting seasonal climate outlooks and corresponding rice yield projections for the 2025-2026 dry season, the 2026 wet season and the 2026-2027 period.

The report includes anticipated climate conditions and their potential effects across major rice-producing areas.

Lampayan said the project’s climate models had projected the onset of a new El Niño event beginning in June or July 2026 and its intensification into a moderate-to-strong event by late 2026 and early 2027.

That forecast has since been borne out by official monitoring, with PAGASA reporting in September that a strong El Niño was active in the tropical Pacific and could intensify into a very strong event before the end of 2026 and persist through the first half of 2027.

PAGASA warned that El Niño increases the likelihood of below-normal rainfall, dry spells and drought in parts of the country, although western areas may still experience periods of above-normal rainfall during the southwest monsoon.

Lampayan said an El Niño of similar magnitude occurred during the 2009-2010 dry season and resulted in a 3.8% reduction in dry-season rice yields nationwide.

He stressed the need for water management and crop scheduling measures to mitigate expected yield losses.

A courtesy visit and technical meeting was held March 24, 2026, to strengthen the partnership among IAP-CAS, HZAU, UPLB and the DOST-Philippine Council for Agriculture, Aquatic and Natural Resources Research and Development.

The meeting was attended by DOST-PCAARRD Executive Director Reynaldo V. Ebora; IAP-CAS professors Dr. Tianyi Zhang, Dr. Fei Zheng and Dr. Juan Du; and HZAU associate professors Dr. Nanyan Deng and Dr. Xiaoxia Li.

The engagement facilitated project discussions and coordinated technical activities among climatologists and agricultural experts involved in the DOST-MOST Joint Research Program.

Set for completion in the first quarter of 2027, the UPLB-led project aims to combine short-term climate forecasting and rice simulation models to provide data-driven early warnings and adaptation recommendations for rainfed rice cultivation in the Philippines.

The project is funded by DOST and monitored by DOST-PCAARRD through its Agricultural Resources Management Research Division. (DOST-PCAARRD S&T Media Services)