Don’t Sit This One Out

By James Jimenez

We say that of every election – that it is the most important, the most consequential, the most critical. And in a sense, we are mostly right every time as every election truly determines the country’s course for the next three years. The upcoming mid-term elections – the 2025 National and Local Elections – is no different. Taking place in 126 days, this electoral exercise will serve as a barometer for the current administration’s performance, significantly influence the Philippines’ political landscape, and yes, set the stage for the 2028 Presidential race.

Political Dynamics and Emerging Rifts

The most notable development, going into the 2025 election period, is the escalating troubles between the President and his Vice-President. Campaigning on a platform of unassailable unity, their partnership has deteriorated, marked by policy disagreements and an all too public exchange of criticism – vitriolic on one side, passive-aggressive on the other.

The VP has openly accused the President of incompetence, laying the blame for rampant inflation and intractable food insecurity – not to mention the price of onions – at the administration’s feet. It doesn’t help that the former President seems determined to get his own say in. Complicating matters is the persistent belief among the uninformed public, that the former President is running for senate. For the record, he is not.

The VP, in turn, is under extreme scrutiny for her refusal to cooperate more fulsomely with the House of Representatives, in its attempt to understand how millions in confidential funds, allocated to the VP as then Secretary of Education, were actually spent. But that’s just the tip of the money iceberg.

Competing for the attention – and comprehension – of the public are the issues surrounding the 2025 budget which, despite providing zero subsidies for the state-run PhilHealth, has apparently provided generously for social aid programs that some have called redundant, and others have labeled “pork.”

These issues, and more besides, are all expected to further polarize an already fragmented electorate, influence voter sentiment among the still-undecided, and dictate campaign strategies in the midterm elections.

Security Concerns and Election Integrity

The midterm elections will also see the electoral process itself being attacked on multiple fronts. Physically, and way in advance of the election period, several acts of violence – attacks on both election officers and candidates – have already cast a pall on everything. These events only serve to emphasize the continually challenging nature of ensuring safe and fair elections, highlighting the need for robust security measures for everyone involved in the electoral process.

On the information front, the Commission on Elections (COMELEC) will also have to fend off the corrosive effects of misinformation and disinformation campaigns, both on the electoral process’ credibility, and on its own. It must show itself to be equal to the task of controlling – or at least holding people to account – rampant vote-buying. This early, emboldened perhaps by the continuing potency of Peñera v. COMELEC, candidates have been more or less openly dangling both money and non-money incentives in exchange for votes. And thus far, COMELEC’s constant refrain to the complaining public has only been “file a case.”

Also victimized by misinformation and disinformation is the voter himself. When fed with false information, voters will not be able to make informed decisions at the ballot box. And with AI on the rise, the chances of that kind of disenfranchisement happening suddenly skyrocket. Concerns over deepfakes and AI-generated content have, in fact, prompted the COMELEC to consider regulations to uphold truthfulness in campaigning. Time will tell if these policy responses are enough to maintain public trust and uphold election integrity.

Implications for Governance and Policy

The 2025 midterm elections will determine the composition of half the Senate, the entire House of Representatives, and all local government positions. The outcomes will influence the legislative support for the President’s agenda and could either facilitate or hinder policy implementation in the latter half of his term. Additionally, the elections will serve as a litmus test for political dynasties and their enduring influence in Philippine politics.

Even more importantly, as a former COMELEC-man myself, I see the elections as an acid test for all the various innovations and improvements the current Commission have been hard at work to put in place. I cheer for these innovations and hope for the best.

As the Philippines approaches the 2025 midterm elections, the interplay of political rivalries, security concerns, technological challenges, and governance implications underscores the election’s significance. The results will not only reflect public sentiment toward the current administration but also shape the nation’s political trajectory leading up to the 2028 presidential elections.

You cannot afford to sit this one out.